This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.93
1.57
1.71
1.62
2.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.84
1.79
1.78
1.67
1.90
1.90
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
2.18
1.20
1.80
1.17
2.50
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.7%
Under 1.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.8%
No
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
2-2 â
6.9%
1-2
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
2-0
5.8%
3-2
4.8%
1-0
4.7%
Ayr goals ↓
Airdrie United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
3.2%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
1
4.7%
9.3%
6.5%
3.4%
1.3%
2
5.8%
8.9%
6.9%
3.5%
1.4%
3
4.1%
6.2%
4.8%
2.5%
0.9%
4
2.1%
3.3%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr goals (down), columns = Airdrie United goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Ayr
2.11
Raith Rvs
2.08
Alloa
1.67
Arbroath
1.64
Stranraer
1.47
East Fife
1.17
Airdrie United
1.14
Forfar
1.06
Queens Park
0.86
Albion Rvs
0.83
Ayr is 0.97 points better than Airdrie United in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.14).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ayr
2.56
Arbroath
1.94
Raith Rvs
1.89
Stranraer
1.61
Albion Rvs
1.58
Alloa
1.56
East Fife
1.36
Airdrie United
1.28
Queens Park
1.17
Forfar
1.11
Ayr is 1.28 goals better than Airdrie United in terms of goals scored per game (2.56 vs 1.28).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Raith Rvs
0.89
Ayr
1.17
Alloa
1.19
Arbroath
1.42
Airdrie United
1.67
Forfar
1.81
Stranraer
1.83
East Fife
1.86
Queens Park
2.00
Albion Rvs
2.22
Ayr is 0.50 goals better than Airdrie United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.67).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
A
Ayr
For 6.5 · Against 6.0 · Total 12.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 10.9 · Total 21.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
For 3.6 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 22.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Ayr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.5
13.2
11.8
0.5
0.4
0.7
21.0
19.2
22.8
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
12.4
11.0
13.3
0.6
0.3
0.8
23.4
25.0
22.3
vs Weaker (9)
12.7
15.5
7.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
17.0
13.5
24.0
% over line
88%
100%
75%
6%
0%
12%
50%
25%
75%
% under line
12%
0%
25%
94%
100%
88%
50%
75%
25%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.8
9.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
22.0
20.8
23.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
10.6
11.3
9.5
0.6
0.8
0.3
20.2
21.3
18.5
vs Weaker (18)
9.3
9.0
9.5
0.4
0.1
0.7
25.0
19.0
28.0
% over line
62%
75%
50%
8%
12%
4%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
38%
25%
50%
92%
88%
96%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Raith Rvs
12.8
Ayr
12.5
Forfar
11.6
Albion Rvs
11.5
Arbroath
10.9
East Fife
10.1
Airdrie United
10.1
Queens Park
10.0
Alloa
10.0
Stranraer
8.8
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.2
Queens Park
3.9
Raith Rvs
3.6
Ayr
3.4
Forfar
3.4
Albion Rvs
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
East Fife
3.2
Arbroath
2.8
Alloa
2.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stranraer
25.4
East Fife
25.0
Raith Rvs
23.4
Forfar
23.2
Airdrie United
22.0
Alloa
21.8
Queens Park
21.6
Ayr
21.0
Arbroath
20.9
Albion Rvs
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
65.5%
Under 9.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.0%
Under 3.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.5%
Under 21.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Ayr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.60
0.87
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.77
0.30
0.80
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.67
1.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.50
0.93
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.89
0.56
0.89
1.10
0.90
vs Weaker (11)
0.36
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Ayr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.67
1.07
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.82
0.60
1.00
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.00
1.07
0.79
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.89
1.22
0.78
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
1.18
0.80
0.80
0.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 2.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Airdrie United
Arbroath
Stranraer
East Fife
Forfar
Queens Park