This opponent (Queens Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queens Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.87
1.00
2.00
0.87
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.96
1.00
2.08
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.6%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
4.8%
Ayr goals ↓
Queens Park goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
3.5%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.6%
10%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.2%
7.0%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.8%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ayr goals (down), columns = Queens Park goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Ayr
2.11
Raith Rvs
2.08
Alloa
1.67
Arbroath
1.64
Stranraer
1.47
East Fife
1.17
Airdrie United
1.14
Forfar
1.06
Queens Park
0.86
Albion Rvs
0.83
Ayr is 1.25 points better than Queens Park in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 0.86).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ayr
2.56
Arbroath
1.94
Raith Rvs
1.89
Stranraer
1.61
Albion Rvs
1.58
Alloa
1.56
East Fife
1.36
Airdrie United
1.28
Queens Park
1.17
Forfar
1.11
Ayr is 1.39 goals better than Queens Park in terms of goals scored per game (2.56 vs 1.17).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Raith Rvs
0.89
Ayr
1.17
Alloa
1.19
Arbroath
1.42
Airdrie United
1.67
Forfar
1.81
Stranraer
1.83
East Fife
1.86
Queens Park
2.00
Albion Rvs
2.22
Ayr is 0.83 goals better than Queens Park in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.00).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
A
Ayr
For 5.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 13.3 · Total 22.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queens Park
For 6.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.1
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.7 · Total 20.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Ayr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.6
10.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
21.3
21.4
21.3
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
11.0
10.0
12.2
0.9
0.7
1.1
22.7
23.4
21.8
vs Weaker (10)
10.7
14.3
7.0
2.1
2.4
1.8
19.3
18.0
20.7
% over line
60%
75%
43%
10%
4%
16%
47%
38%
57%
% under line
40%
25%
57%
90%
96%
84%
53%
62%
43%
This opponent (Queens Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queens Park
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.1
10.6
1.0
1.1
0.9
20.9
19.0
23.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
10.3
10.8
9.8
1.0
1.1
1.0
21.2
19.3
23.2
vs Weaker (11)
13.0
12.0
15.0
0.9
1.2
0.6
19.3
18.0
22.0
% over line
67%
75%
57%
12%
12%
12%
40%
25%
57%
% under line
33%
25%
43%
88%
88%
88%
60%
75%
43%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
11.4
Forfar
11.3
Queens Park
10.9
Ayr
10.9
Raith Rvs
10.9
Arbroath
10.7
Airdrie United
10.6
Stranraer
10.4
East Fife
9.9
Alloa
9.4
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.5
Forfar
3.6
Ayr
3.5
Queens Park
3.3
Raith Rvs
3.3
East Fife
3.2
Albion Rvs
3.1
Airdrie United
3.1
Arbroath
2.9
Alloa
2.8
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Fife
24.6
Stranraer
23.3
Raith Rvs
23.3
Forfar
23.1
Albion Rvs
21.4
Ayr
21.3
Airdrie United
21.3
Alloa
21.1
Queens Park
20.9
Arbroath
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.6%
Under 9.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.2%
Under 21.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Ayr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.62
0.69
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.70
0.55
0.64
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Queens Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queens Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.75
0.58
0.83
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Ayr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.97
0.94
0.94
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.09
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.75
1.00
0.25
3.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Queens Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queens Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.10
0.47
1.13
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
1.21
0.42
1.25
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Queens Park
Arbroath
Stranraer
East Fife
Airdrie United
Forfar