This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.87
2.47
0.67
1.93
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.43
2.67
1.67
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (23)
2.35
0.70
2.42
0.42
2.27
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.6%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.9%
2-0 ✓
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
5.3%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
7.9%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.6%
14%
7.3%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.5%
8.7%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.4%
4.0%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = Ajax goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barendrecht
2.50
SC Genemuiden
2.33
Excelsior
2.33
Heerenveen
2.33
ASWH
2.25
Utrecht
2.25
Rijnsburgse Boys
2.25
GO Ahead Eagles
2.20
Heracles
2.20
AZ Alkmaar
2.20
Noordwijk
2.17
Waalwijk
2.00
Rijnvogels
2.00
Excelsior Maassluis
2.00
Quick '20
2.00
Winterswijk
2.00
Achilles Veen
2.00
Ijsselmeervogels
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
De Graafschap
2.00
Koninklijke HFC
2.00
Eemdijk
1.75
PSV Eindhoven
1.75
Sparta Nijkerk
1.75
Quick Boys
1.75
Blauw Geel
1.67
Hercules
1.67
ADO '20
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
Ajax
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
RKAVV
1.50
Poortugaal
1.50
Gemert
1.50
Twente
1.50
UDI '19
1.50
Cambuur
1.50
Groningen
1.50
TEC
1.50
MVV
1.50
Fortuna Sittard
1.50
Telstar
1.50
HV & CV Quick
1.50
Ajax Amateurs
1.50
Sportlust '46
1.50
Capelle
1.33
OJC Rosmalen
1.33
AFC Amsterdam
1.33
Dovo
1.33
Kolping Boys
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
SVV Scheveningen
1.00
PEC Zwolle
1.00
Olde Veste '54
1.00
RKAV Volendam
1.00
Geldrop
1.00
NEC Nijmegen
1.00
SDC Putten
1.00
Elinkwijk
1.00
Hsc 21
1.00
Spakenburg
1.00
De Bilt
1.00
HBC
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Smitshoek
1.00
EVV
1.00
Zwaluw VFC
0.50
Hoek
0.50
Katwijk
0.50
Juliana '31
0.50
Willem II
0.50
Laar
0.00
ACV
0.00
Forum Sport
0.00
Roda
0.00
Emmen
0.00
Vitesse
0.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
0.00
TOGB
0.00
Dordrecht
0.00
De Treffers
0.00
HHC
0.00
ONS Sneek
0.00
Hollandia
0.00
UNA
0.00
ADO Den Haag
0.00
Huizen
0.00
GVVV Veenendaal
0.00
FC OSS
0.00
FC 's-Gravenzande
0.00
Heerjansdam
0.00
GOES
0.00
NAC Breda
0.00
Almere City FC
0.00
SteDoCo
0.00
ROHDA Raalte
0.00
Harkemase Boys
0.00
Den Bosch
0.00
URK
0.00
Meerssen
0.00
Excelsior '31
0.00
Helmond Sport
0.00
Kozakken Boys
0.00
Kloetinge
0.00
Blauw Wit '34
0.00
DEM
0.00
VVV Venlo
0.00
DAW Schaijk
0.00
SVBO
0.00
AZ Alkmaar is 0.70 points better than Ajax in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Eindhoven
4.00
PSV Eindhoven
3.50
Ijsselmeervogels
3.33
Sparta Nijkerk
3.25
Groningen
3.00
Barendrecht
3.00
Utrecht
3.00
Waalwijk
2.67
Excelsior
2.67
De Graafschap
2.67
FC Volendam
2.50
Cambuur
2.50
Fortuna Sittard
2.50
Blauw Geel
2.33
Hercules
2.33
Quick Boys
2.25
AZ Alkmaar
2.20
ACV
2.00
PEC Zwolle
2.00
Rijnvogels
2.00
RKAV Volendam
2.00
Poortugaal
2.00
Geldrop
2.00
Excelsior Maassluis
2.00
GO Ahead Eagles
2.00
Gemert
2.00
Spakenburg
2.00
GOES
2.00
Twente
2.00
Katwijk
2.00
SteDoCo
2.00
TEC
2.00
Achilles Veen
2.00
De Bilt
2.00
HBC
2.00
URK
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
HV & CV Quick
2.00
Sportlust '46
2.00
Heerenveen
2.00
Noordwijk
1.83
Eemdijk
1.75
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.75
Capelle
1.67
Kolping Boys
1.67
Vvsb
1.50
Juliana '31
1.50
MVV
1.50
Telstar
1.50
ASWH
1.50
Willem II
1.50
Ajax Amateurs
1.50
Heracles
1.40
OJC Rosmalen
1.33
SC Genemuiden
1.33
AFC Amsterdam
1.33
Quick '20
1.33
Winterswijk
1.33
Koninklijke HFC
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
SVV Scheveningen
1.00
ADO '20
1.00
Roda
1.00
Vitesse
1.00
Ajax
1.00
Olde Veste '54
1.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.00
Dordrecht
1.00
De Treffers
1.00
RKAVV
1.00
ONS Sneek
1.00
NEC Nijmegen
1.00
SDC Putten
1.00
Elinkwijk
1.00
UNA
1.00
ADO Den Haag
1.00
Huizen
1.00
FC OSS
1.00
Hsc 21
1.00
Heerjansdam
1.00
UDI '19
1.00
NAC Breda
1.00
Harkemase Boys
1.00
Den Bosch
1.00
Dovo
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Kozakken Boys
1.00
Smitshoek
1.00
Kloetinge
1.00
DEM
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
SVBO
1.00
Zwaluw VFC
0.50
Hoek
0.50
Laar
0.00
Forum Sport
0.00
Emmen
0.00
TOGB
0.00
HHC
0.00
Hollandia
0.00
GVVV Veenendaal
0.00
FC 's-Gravenzande
0.00
Almere City FC
0.00
ROHDA Raalte
0.00
Meerssen
0.00
Excelsior '31
0.00
Helmond Sport
0.00
Blauw Wit '34
0.00
DAW Schaijk
0.00
EVV
0.00
AZ Alkmaar is 1.20 goals better than Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
EVV
0.00
Winterswijk
0.33
Heracles
0.40
ADO '20
0.50
RKAVV
0.50
Barendrecht
0.50
ASWH
0.50
Sportlust '46
0.50
SC Genemuiden
0.67
Noordwijk
0.83
SVV Scheveningen
1.00
Emmen
1.00
Ajax
1.00
Olde Veste '54
1.00
HHC
1.00
NEC Nijmegen
1.00
SDC Putten
1.00
Elinkwijk
1.00
Hollandia
1.00
Hsc 21
1.00
GO Ahead Eagles
1.00
Gemert
1.00
UDI '19
1.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.00
Telstar
1.00
Meerssen
1.00
Utrecht
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
Smitshoek
1.00
De Graafschap
1.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.25
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.25
Waalwijk
1.33
OJC Rosmalen
1.33
Blauw Geel
1.33
Quick '20
1.33
Feyenoord
1.33
Heerenveen
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
FC Eindhoven
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Excelsior Maassluis
1.50
Hoek
1.50
Achilles Veen
1.50
MVV
1.50
Quick Boys
1.50
Ajax Amateurs
1.50
Hercules
1.67
Excelsior
1.67
Sparta Nijkerk
1.75
Forum Sport
2.00
PEC Zwolle
2.00
Capelle
2.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
2.00
Dordrecht
2.00
RKAV Volendam
2.00
Poortugaal
2.00
Geldrop
2.00
Zwaluw VFC
2.00
Huizen
2.00
FC 's-Gravenzande
2.00
Spakenburg
2.00
NAC Breda
2.00
Groningen
2.00
Harkemase Boys
2.00
Juliana '31
2.00
De Bilt
2.00
Den Bosch
2.00
HBC
2.00
Fortuna Sittard
2.00
Dovo
2.00
Kozakken Boys
2.00
HV & CV Quick
2.00
Kloetinge
2.00
Blauw Wit '34
2.00
DEM
2.00
VVV Venlo
2.00
DAW Schaijk
2.00
Willem II
2.00
Ijsselmeervogels
2.33
Eemdijk
2.50
Twente
2.50
Katwijk
2.50
Cambuur
2.50
Rijnvogels
2.67
Kolping Boys
2.67
Roda
3.00
Vitesse
3.00
ONS Sneek
3.00
GVVV Veenendaal
3.00
AFC Amsterdam
3.00
Almere City FC
3.00
SteDoCo
3.00
TEC
3.00
Helmond Sport
3.00
SVBO
3.00
Koninklijke HFC
3.00
TOGB
4.00
De Treffers
4.00
UNA
4.00
ADO Den Haag
4.00
FC OSS
4.00
Heerjansdam
4.00
GOES
4.00
ROHDA Raalte
4.00
URK
4.00
Excelsior '31
4.00
ACV
5.00
Laar
6.00
AZ Alkmaar and Ajax are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
GO Ahead Eagles
54%
AZ Alkmaar
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 5.7 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
For 4.5 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 13.9 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.6
3.6
3.2
4.0
21.0
19.8
22.1
vs Stronger (4)
8.0
4.5
11.5
2.2
1.5
3.0
16.8
19.5
14.0
vs Similar (12)
9.3
8.7
10.2
3.8
4.4
3.0
22.7
22.1
23.4
vs Weaker (34)
10.0
10.9
9.2
3.6
2.9
4.4
20.8
18.9
22.7
% over line
47%
40%
54%
44%
35%
54%
57%
48%
67%
% under line
53%
60%
46%
56%
65%
46%
43%
52%
33%
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.9
7.6
8.3
3.9
3.5
4.4
22.0
21.0
23.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
7.2
6.8
7.6
5.2
5.6
4.9
25.8
24.0
27.0
vs Weaker (38)
8.2
7.8
8.7
3.6
3.0
4.2
20.5
20.2
21.0
% over line
25%
22%
29%
54%
54%
54%
43%
39%
48%
% under line
75%
78%
71%
46%
46%
46%
57%
61%
52%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Vitesse
11.3
Heracles
11.1
NEC Nijmegen
11.0
Waalwijk
11.0
Dordrecht
11.0
Sparta Rotterdam
10.9
Feyenoord
10.9
Cambuur
10.9
FC Volendam
10.8
PSV Eindhoven
10.6
GO Ahead Eagles
10.6
Den Bosch
10.5
PEC Zwolle
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Utrecht
10.4
FC OSS
10.3
Telstar
10.3
Heerenveen
10.3
Willem II
10.3
De Graafschap
10.2
Emmen
10.2
Helmond Sport
10.2
Almere City FC
10.2
Excelsior
10.2
MVV
10.0
Roda
10.0
Fortuna Sittard
10.0
ADO Den Haag
9.9
VVV Venlo
9.9
Twente
9.9
Groningen
9.8
NAC Breda
9.6
AZ Alkmaar
9.5
Ajax
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ajax
4.2
Cambuur
4.1
ADO Den Haag
4.1
Excelsior
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
4.0
Feyenoord
3.9
Roda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Groningen
3.8
Vitesse
3.8
Almere City FC
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Dordrecht
3.7
Den Bosch
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
NEC Nijmegen
3.7
Helmond Sport
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.6
FC Volendam
3.6
Telstar
3.6
FC OSS
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.5
PEC Zwolle
3.5
Willem II
3.5
De Graafschap
3.5
Twente
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Sparta Rotterdam
3.4
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Waalwijk
3.3
MVV
3.2
Heerenveen
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
GO Ahead Eagles
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Telstar
24.7
Vitesse
24.2
Dordrecht
24.1
ADO Den Haag
24.0
Emmen
23.8
FC OSS
23.8
Cambuur
23.3
VVV Venlo
23.1
Helmond Sport
22.9
Roda
22.6
Almere City FC
22.4
Heracles
22.0
Den Bosch
21.9
MVV
21.8
Ajax
21.8
Groningen
21.4
NAC Breda
21.1
NEC Nijmegen
21.1
AZ Alkmaar
21.0
Fortuna Sittard
20.7
FC Eindhoven
20.6
PEC Zwolle
20.5
De Graafschap
20.5
Utrecht
20.4
Heerenveen
20.2
Feyenoord
20.1
Willem II
20.0
FC Volendam
19.7
Twente
19.7
GO Ahead Eagles
19.6
Waalwijk
19.1
Sparta Rotterdam
18.8
Excelsior
18.7
PSV Eindhoven
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.7%
Under 9.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.4%
Under 3.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.6%
Under 21.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AZ Alkmaar or Draw✓ Hit
69.6%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar or Ajax✓ Hit
70.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Ajax
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ajax✗ Miss
59.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Ajax
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.4%
Under
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AZ Alkmaar, so a minus line means AZ Alkmaar give that many goals of a start and Ajax receive them. At -1, AZ Alkmaar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AZ Alkmaar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: Draw
AZ Alkmaar -2
7.2%
Draw -2
12.4%
Ajax +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar -1
19.6%
Draw -1
20.9%
Ajax +1
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +1
69.6%
Draw +1
17.5%
Ajax -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +2
87.1%
Draw +2
8.8%
Ajax -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.69
0.75
0.86
0.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.40
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.53
0.60
0.80
0.89
0.22
Clean sheet %
63% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.27
1.20
0.20
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.29
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.00
0.26
1.33
0.08
0.64
0.45
Clean sheet %
77% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.62
0.56
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.56
1.00
1.20
0.25
2.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
0.26
2.00
0.30
0.89
0.22
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.60
1.27
0.47
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.14
2.00
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
0.43
1.08
0.33
1.64
0.55
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Troy Parrott36%
Mexx Meerdink30%
Sven Mijnans23%
Ibrahim Sadiq22%
Ruben van Bommel18%
Ro-Zangelo Daal14%
Jayden Addai13%
Mayckel Lahdo11%
Denso Kasius11%
Zico Buurmeester10%
Ernest Poku8%
Kees Smit7%
David Möller Wolfe6%
Mees de Wit5%
Wouter Goes5%
Seiya Maikuma5%
Kristijan Belić4%
Peer Koopmeiners4%
Jordy Clasie3%
Alexandre Penetra2%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Lequincio Zeefuik0%
Maxim Dekker0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lequincio Zeefuik33%
Dave Kwakman30%
Kristijan Belić29%
Wouter Goes29%
Ro-Zangelo Daal29%
Ruben van Bommel18%
David Möller Wolfe17%
Jordy Clasie16%
Mees de Wit15%
Sven Mijnans14%
Kees Smit13%
Peer Koopmeiners13%
Maxim Dekker11%
Alexandre Penetra11%
Ernest Poku10%
Seiya Maikuma9%
Bruno Martins Indi8%
Mexx Meerdink8%
Ibrahim Sadiq7%
Denso Kasius7%
Jayden Addai4%
Troy Parrott2%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Mayckel Lahdo0%
Zico Buurmeester0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben van Bommel15%
David Möller Wolfe15%
Sven Mijnans14%
Ernest Poku12%
Peer Koopmeiners11%
Ibrahim Sadiq11%
Jordy Clasie11%
Dave Kwakman10%
Wouter Goes10%
Troy Parrott9%
Zico Buurmeester7%
Seiya Maikuma7%
Kees Smit7%
Denso Kasius7%
Mees de Wit5%
Mayckel Lahdo3%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Kristijan Belić0%
Alexandre Penetra0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Lequincio Zeefuik0%
Maxim Dekker0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Jayden Addai0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ruben van Bommel27%
Sven Mijnans25%
Troy Parrott21%
Mexx Meerdink20%
Ibrahim Sadiq19%
Ernest Poku18%
Denso Kasius7%
Mayckel Lahdo6%
Jayden Addai4%
Peer Koopmeiners4%
Zico Buurmeester2%
Jeroen Zoet0%
Bruno Martins Indi0%
Jordy Clasie0%
Mees de Wit0%
Kristijan Belić0%
Alexandre Penetra0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
David Möller Wolfe0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Lequincio Zeefuik0%
Maxim Dekker0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kenneth Taylor30%
Wout Weghorst29%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen27%
Youri Regeer25%
Davy Klaassen23%
Bertrand Traoré20%
Chuba Akpom19%
Brian Brobbey15%
Mika Godts14%
Kian Fitz-Jim13%
Kristian Hlynsson12%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Christian Rasmussen10%
Anton Gaaei8%
Steven Berghuis5%
Josip Šutalo5%
Branco van den Boomen5%
Devyne Rensch5%
Jorrel Hato5%
Daniele Rugani4%
Youri Baas3%
Jordan Henderson3%
Owen Wijndal0%
Remko Pasveer0%
Matheus0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Ahmetcan Kaplan0%
Dies Janse0%
Don-Angelo Konadu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Owen Wijndal38%
Lucas Rosa25%
Youri Regeer25%
Ahmetcan Kaplan25%
Jordan Henderson23%
Jorrel Hato23%
Anton Gaaei19%
Brian Brobbey18%
Kian Fitz-Jim15%
Kenneth Taylor15%
Branco van den Boomen15%
Youri Baas12%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Devyne Rensch10%
Wout Weghorst10%
Bertrand Traoré9%
Josip Šutalo8%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen7%
Steven Berghuis5%
Christian Rasmussen5%
Mika Godts5%
Daniele Rugani4%
Chuba Akpom0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Remko Pasveer0%
Matheus0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Dies Janse0%
Don-Angelo Konadu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Youri Regeer25%
Don-Angelo Konadu20%
Steven Berghuis16%
Bertrand Traoré16%
Anton Gaaei14%
Jordan Henderson13%
Brian Brobbey12%
Lucas Rosa12%
Kenneth Taylor11%
Matheus10%
Mika Godts10%
Jorrel Hato9%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen7%
Wout Weghorst6%
Davy Klaassen6%
Branco van den Boomen5%
Chuba Akpom4%
Remko Pasveer3%
Kian Fitz-Jim3%
Daniele Rugani0%
Josip Šutalo0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Christian Rasmussen0%
Devyne Rensch0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Ahmetcan Kaplan0%
Youri Baas0%
Dies Janse0%
Jorthy Mokio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bertrand Traoré20%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen13%
Wout Weghorst13%
Kristian Hlynsson12%
Mika Godts12%
Branco van den Boomen10%
Brian Brobbey10%
Ahmetcan Kaplan8%
Chuba Akpom8%
Kenneth Taylor7%
Jorthy Mokio6%
Davy Klaassen6%
Steven Berghuis5%
Kian Fitz-Jim5%
Devyne Rensch5%
Anton Gaaei3%
Jordan Henderson0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Josip Šutalo0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Remko Pasveer0%
Matheus0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Youri Regeer0%
Christian Rasmussen0%
Youri Baas0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Dies Janse0%
Don-Angelo Konadu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
TEL (21)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €37m less valuable than Ajax's (€136m vs €173m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €34m less valuable than Ajax's (€61m vs €95m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
TEL (4)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
ADH (3)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €6m more valuable than Ajax's (€21m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
TEL (10)
€3m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €10m less valuable than Ajax's (€54m vs €63m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Twente
GO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard
Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen
Heracles
NAC Breda
Willem II
Waalwijk
Almere City FC
Telstar
Dordrecht
Den Bosch
Cambuur
De Graafschap
ADO Den Haag