AZ Alkmaar are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 68% chance of a home win, 19% for a draw and 13% for a GO Ahead Eagles victory. The pick is a 2-0 win, the most likely scoreline with a 9.7% probability, and the expected total is 3.4 goals, with 3 goals the most probable total at 22%. AZ’s home form is strong against weaker opponents, scoring an average of 2.62 and conceding only 1.0. GO Ahead Eagles, playing away against a stronger side, average 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. Recent form shows AZ on a three-game winning streak, last beating Fortuna Sittard 2-0, while GO Ahead Eagles have just won 3-1 over ADO Den Haag. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 7.5 (98.0% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.0% with an 8% edge), Under 6.5 (94.9% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.0% with a 13% edge) and Home +2 handicap (92.7%).
Results analysis
AZ Alkmaar’s 5-2 victory over GO Ahead Eagles extended their four-game winning streak, confirming the model’s home win pick and its 68% probability. The match finished as predicted, with AZ securing the win. The model’s selections performed largely well: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.4%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.2%, and Home +2 handicap hit at 92.8%. Two picks missed: Under 6.5 at 94.9% and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.5%. The model’s predictions largely came in, with the favoured result landing as forecast.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AZ Alkmaar win✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied 69.0% · @ 1.36
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.42
10Bet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Draw✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied 17.7% · @ 5.31
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.73
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.60
Marathonbet
5.50
GO Ahead Eagles win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied 13.3% · @ 7.04
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
8.00
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
1xBet
7.37
Pinnacle
7.23
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.13
2.59
1.00
1.23
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
2.22
1.22
2.75
1.00
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.95
1.05
2.54
1.00
0.86
1.14
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GO Ahead Eagles
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.50
2.20
1.40
1.00
1.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
2.00
0.80
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
2.12
1.12
2.90
1.10
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.8%
@ 1.09-0.7%
Under 1.5
14.2%
@ 6.97+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Under
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
Pinnacle
7.27
Unibet
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.5%
@ 1.34-4.6%
Under 2.5
34.5%
@ 3.14+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.26
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Betano
3.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.5%
@ 1.91-5.9%
Under 3.5
56.5%
@ 1.87+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.99
Superbet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.5%
@ 1.53-3.1%
No
42.5%
@ 2.36+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
No
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.8%@ 8.98+4.8%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.01+4.0%
1-1
8.8%@ 10.31+4.5%
3-0
7.9%@ 10.31+3.5%
3-1
7.7%@ 9.30+2.8%
1-0
7.4%@ 10.73+3.2%
2-2
4.7%@ 13.94+1.5%
4-0
4.7%@ 14.78+1.6%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
GO Ahead Eagles goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
2.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
1
7.4%
8.8%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
2
9.8%
9.6%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.9%
7.7%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.7%
4.6%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = GO Ahead Eagles goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
AZ Alkmaar is 0.41 points better than GO Ahead Eagles in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
AZ Alkmaar is 0.12 goals better than GO Ahead Eagles in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
AZ Alkmaar is 0.06 goals better than GO Ahead Eagles in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
AZ Alkmaar is 3.7 percentage points better than GO Ahead Eagles in terms of average possession (53% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 6.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
GO Ahead Eagles
For 5.7 · Against 6.2 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.1 · Against 10.3 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.9
10.0
3.8
3.9
3.7
22.7
22.5
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
15.0
19.0
11.0
vs Similar (14)
9.4
9.4
9.4
4.5
5.0
4.0
24.9
24.3
25.6
vs Weaker (34)
10.9
11.4
10.3
3.6
3.6
3.5
22.3
22.0
22.6
% over line
60%
63%
57%
44%
48%
39%
56%
56%
57%
% under line
40%
37%
43%
56%
52%
61%
44%
44%
43%
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GO Ahead Eagles
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.2
11.2
3.1
2.6
3.6
19.0
19.8
18.1
vs Stronger (21)
10.9
10.1
11.5
3.1
3.1
3.1
18.1
18.9
17.5
vs Similar (28)
11.3
11.9
10.7
3.1
2.3
4.1
19.8
20.5
19.0
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
-
15.0
2.0
-
2.0
14.0
-
14.0
% over line
62%
64%
60%
30%
20%
40%
26%
32%
20%
% under line
38%
36%
40%
70%
80%
60%
74%
68%
80%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
GO Ahead Eagles
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Feyenoord
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Cambuur
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
26.7
NEC Nijmegen
23.8
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.0
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.7
PEC Zwolle
22.6
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.8
Twente
20.8
Groningen
20.7
Sparta Rotterdam
20.5
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
19.0
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.90
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.58
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AZ Alkmaar or Draw✓ Hit
81.7%
Avg Implied 86.3% · @ 1.09
Edge
-4.6%
68%
19%
13%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
AZ Alkmaar or GO Ahead Eagles✓ Hit
78.0%
Avg Implied 82.8% · @ 1.13
Edge
-4.8%
68%
19%
13%
covers AZ Alkmaar + GO Ahead Eagles
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Draw or GO Ahead Eagles✗ Miss
40.3%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 3.03
Edge
+9.3%
68%
19%
13%
covers Draw + GO Ahead Eagles
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.13
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Superbet
3.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.5%
@ 1.03-1.7%
Under
11.5%
@ 9.52+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
9.00
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
63.6%
@ 1.29-8.7%
Under
36.4%
@ 3.36+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.61
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.35
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
36.7%
@ 1.93-11.7%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.81+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
AZ Alkmaar over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
17.3%
@ 3.36-10.4%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.29+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.0%
@ 1.45+3.7%
Under
32.0%
@ 2.61-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.5%
@ 3.17+2.2%
Under
68.5%
@ 1.32-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.16
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 8.21-0.6%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.05+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
8.30
Betfair
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.03
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 20.67-1.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AZ Alkmaar, so a minus line means AZ Alkmaar give that many goals of a start and GO Ahead Eagles receive them. At -1, AZ Alkmaar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AZ Alkmaar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar -2
19.7%
@ 3.08-9.5%
Draw -2
18.2%
@ 4.25-2.9%
GO Ahead Eagles +2
62.1%
@ 1.80+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
Away
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
10Bet
1.77
Handicap -1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar -1
37.9%
@ 1.88-9.9%
Draw -1
21.8%
@ 3.93-1.0%
GO Ahead Eagles +1
40.3%
@ 3.06+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.83
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
3.95
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Handicap +1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +1
81.7%
@ 1.10-0.5%
Draw +1
11.1%
@ 7.98-0.2%
GO Ahead Eagles -1
7.2%
@ 13.79+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
17.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Handicap +2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +2
92.8%
@ 1.02-1.0%
Draw +2
5.1%
@ 22.00+0.7%
GO Ahead Eagles -2
2.2%
@ 51.00+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Draw
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
1.06
0.18
0.31
0.54
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.22
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.35
1.08
0.23
0.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
77% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GO Ahead Eagles
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.87
0.53
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.46
0.20
1.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.41
1.20
0.30
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.18-5.3%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 4.33+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.6%
@ 1.94-10.5%
Under 1.5
62.4%
@ 1.80+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.02
Pinnacle
1.99
Unibet
1.96
1xBet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
William Hil
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 3.90-9.1%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.22+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.05
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Under
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.2%
@ 1.38-7.2%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.86+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
Superbet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
1xBet
2.85
Unibet
2.80
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
19.2%
@ 2.80-14.0%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.39+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Unibet
2.85
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 6.65-9.1%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.07+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.40
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.7%
@ 2.48+0.1%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.49-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Betano
2.55
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.43
Under
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 8.60-2.1%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
8.60
Superbet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 36.00-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.80
1.53
0.82
0.92
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.70
1.46
0.77
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (GO Ahead Eagles) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GO Ahead Eagles
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.33
0.87
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.54
0.60
1.00
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (17)
1.35
0.71
1.70
0.80
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.4%
@ 1.10-1.0%
Under 0.5
16.6%
@ 5.98+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.20
Betano
6.10
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.5%
@ 1.56-10.1%
Under 1.5
50.5%
@ 2.30+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.32
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.1%
@ 2.72-11.1%
Under 2.5
76.9%
@ 1.41+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.1%
@ 1.24-9.9%
Under
34.9%
@ 3.72+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Superbet
3.60
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
26.8%
@ 2.14-16.6%
Under
73.2%
@ 1.64+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.57
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
6.5%
@ 4.58-13.7%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.16+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.13
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 2.04+1.8%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.70-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 6.30-1.3%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.08+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
Superbet
6.40
1xBet
6.30
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
GO Ahead Eagles over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 16.88-3.1%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.9%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
1.16
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.13
-
+13.7%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
92.8%
1.02
Betfair
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.03
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+9.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.7%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+10.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
81.7%
1.09
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
-4.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.7%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.8%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
+14.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
78.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
+11.1%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
76.3%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
+7.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.18
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
-5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.2%
1.64
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.57
+16.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AZ Alkmaar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
GO Ahead Eagles
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Søren Tengstedt75%
Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson50%
Victor Edvardsen50%
Melle Meulensteen33%
Julius Dirksen33%
Mathis Suray25%
Erik Flataker25%
Joris Kramer0%
Richonell Margaret0%
Evert Linthorst0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Thibo Baeten0%
Dean James0%
Oskar Siira Sivertsen0%
Giovanni van Zwam0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julius Dirksen67%
Dean James25%
Melle Meulensteen0%
Joris Kramer0%
Richonell Margaret0%
Evert Linthorst0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Søren Tengstedt0%
Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson0%
Victor Edvardsen0%
Thibo Baeten0%
Mathis Suray0%
Oskar Siira Sivertsen0%
Giovanni van Zwam0%
Erik Flataker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Melle Meulensteen33%
Evert Linthorst25%
Alfons Sampsted25%
Søren Tengstedt25%
Victor Edvardsen25%
Mathis Suray25%
Dean James25%
Joris Kramer0%
Richonell Margaret0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson0%
Thibo Baeten0%
Julius Dirksen0%
Oskar Siira Sivertsen0%
Giovanni van Zwam0%
Erik Flataker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Søren Tengstedt50%
Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson25%
Victor Edvardsen25%
Erik Flataker25%
Melle Meulensteen0%
Joris Kramer0%
Richonell Margaret0%
Evert Linthorst0%
Kjetil Haug0%
Alfons Sampsted0%
Thibo Baeten0%
Julius Dirksen0%
Mathis Suray0%
Dean James0%
Oskar Siira Sivertsen0%
Giovanni van Zwam0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €114m more valuable than GO Ahead Eagles's (€136m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €52m more valuable than GO Ahead Eagles's (€61m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €17m more valuable than GO Ahead Eagles's (€21m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €46m more valuable than GO Ahead Eagles's (€54m vs €8m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur