AZ Alkmaar’s recent 3-game winning streak and a 2-0 triumph over Fortuna Sittard set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, and the model’s numbers back that narrative. The odds lean heavily toward a home win, with a 61% chance, while draws sit at 21% and an away victory at 19%. The predicted average goal total is 3.6, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for AZ, with a 9.4% probability. AZ’s home form shows an average of 2.08 goals scored and only 0.69 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas NEC’s away form is more aggressive, scoring 2.75 and conceding 1.5 against stronger teams. The model’s selections include an 96.9% chance of Under 7.5, 96.1% for Away under 3.5 goals, 92.7% for Under 6.5, 92.3% for Home +2 handicap, 90.4% for Home over 0.5 goals, 88.2% for Over 1.5, 86.6% for Away under 2.5 goals, and an 86.6% chance of Under 5.5 cards, which is expected to miss. The final score of 5-1 confirms the home win prediction.
Results analysis
AZ Alkmaar continued their three-game winning streak, beating NEC Nijmegen 5-1 in a KNVB Beker clash. The model’s favourite, a home win at 61 percent, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted 5-1 outcome. The pre-match pick of a home win was right, and the model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (96.9 percent) and Under 6.5 (92.7 percent) were fulfilled, as was Home +2 handicap (92.3 percent) and Home over 0.5 goals (90.4 percent). Over 1.5 (88.2 percent) and Away under 3.5 goals (96.1 percent) also succeeded, along with Away under 2.5 goals (86.6 percent). Only Under 5.5 cards (86.6 percent) missed. The match confirmed the model’s strong predictive accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AZ Alkmaar win✓ Hit
60.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen win✗ Miss
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.13
2.24
0.76
1.38
1.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
2.14
1.29
2.75
1.00
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.82
1.05
2.08
0.69
1.44
1.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.50
2.21
1.43
2.25
1.56
vs Stronger (8)
2.38
1.50
2.00
1.50
2.75
1.50
vs Similar (14)
1.93
1.57
2.17
1.67
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
2.62
1.38
2.50
1.00
2.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.2%
Under 1.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.7%
Under 2.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.9%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7.4%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.8%
1-0
5.6%
1-2
5.1%
AZ Alkmaar goals ↓
NEC Nijmegen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
2.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
1
5.6%
8.9%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
2
7.5%
9.4%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.8%
7.4%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
4
3.4%
4.3%
2.7%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AZ Alkmaar goals (down), columns = NEC Nijmegen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heracles
2.60
Noordwijk
2.50
Rijnsburgse Boys
2.25
Sparta Nijkerk
2.25
Barendrecht
2.25
Eemdijk
2.25
Quick Boys
2.25
ASWH
2.25
Utrecht
2.25
PSV Eindhoven
2.25
GO Ahead Eagles
2.20
AZ Alkmaar
2.20
De Graafschap
2.00
Blauw Geel
2.00
Rijnvogels
2.00
Hercules
2.00
Koninklijke HFC
2.00
SC Genemuiden
2.00
Dovo
2.00
AFC Amsterdam
2.00
Capelle
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
Heerenveen
2.00
Sparta Rotterdam
2.00
Excelsior
2.00
Waalwijk
2.00
Ijsselmeervogels
2.00
Willem II
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Katwijk
1.50
Telstar
1.50
Cambuur
1.50
Sportlust '46
1.50
Hoek
1.50
Groningen
1.50
UDI '19
1.50
Poortugaal
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.50
Fortuna Sittard
1.50
TEC
1.50
Gemert
1.50
Excelsior Maassluis
1.50
Twente
1.50
ADO '20
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
Juliana '31
1.50
Ajax
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.50
MVV
1.50
FC Lisse
1.33
Hoogeveen
1.00
Walcheren
1.00
Dongen
1.00
ARC
1.00
Groene Ster
1.00
Halsteren
1.00
Velocitas
1.00
Sportclub 25
1.00
't Zand
1.00
Westlandia
1.00
Erp
1.00
AWC
1.00
VV Scherpenzeel
1.00
HZVV
1.00
Staphorst
1.00
Roosendaal
1.00
Zwaluwen
1.00
DVO
1.00
Heino
1.00
VVOG
1.00
Kampong
1.00
Aalsmeer
1.00
De Foresters
1.00
Mierlo-Hout
1.00
Olde Veste '54
0.50
Almere City FC
0.00
Emmen
0.00
De Treffers
0.00
Harkemase Boys
0.00
Spakenburg
0.00
GOES
0.00
Kozakken Boys
0.00
URK
0.00
Hsc 21
0.00
ADO Den Haag
0.00
Hollandia
0.00
GVVV Veenendaal
0.00
RKAV Volendam
0.00
ROHDA Raalte
0.00
ACV
0.00
TOGB
0.00
SVV Scheveningen
0.00
Dordrecht
0.00
Den Bosch
0.00
FC OSS
0.00
Roda
0.00
Huizen
0.00
VVV Venlo
0.00
PEC Zwolle
0.00
Excelsior '31
0.00
Kloetinge
0.00
HHC
0.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
0.00
UNA
0.00
Meerssen
0.00
NAC Breda
0.00
SteDoCo
0.00
Helmond Sport
0.00
Vitesse
0.00
AZ Alkmaar is 0.70 points better than NEC Nijmegen in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
4.00
FC Eindhoven
4.00
Sparta Nijkerk
3.75
Sparta Rotterdam
3.50
Ijsselmeervogels
3.33
Katwijk
3.00
Barendrecht
3.00
Groningen
3.00
Excelsior
3.00
PEC Zwolle
3.00
Utrecht
3.00
De Graafschap
2.67
Blauw Geel
2.67
Hercules
2.67
Waalwijk
2.67
FC Volendam
2.50
Quick Boys
2.50
Cambuur
2.50
Fortuna Sittard
2.50
Juliana '31
2.50
Capelle
2.33
Eemdijk
2.25
AZ Alkmaar
2.20
Willem II
2.00
Spakenburg
2.00
Rijnvogels
2.00
GOES
2.00
Noordwijk
2.00
URK
2.00
AFC Amsterdam
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
Sportlust '46
2.00
RKAV Volendam
2.00
ACV
2.00
Heerenveen
2.00
Poortugaal
2.00
NEC Nijmegen
2.00
TEC
2.00
Gemert
2.00
Excelsior Maassluis
2.00
Twente
2.00
GO Ahead Eagles
2.00
SteDoCo
2.00
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.75
Heracles
1.60
Hoogeveen
1.55
Walcheren
1.55
Dongen
1.55
ARC
1.55
Groene Ster
1.55
Halsteren
1.55
Velocitas
1.55
Sportclub 25
1.55
't Zand
1.55
Westlandia
1.55
Erp
1.55
AWC
1.55
VV Scherpenzeel
1.55
HZVV
1.55
Staphorst
1.55
Roosendaal
1.55
Zwaluwen
1.55
DVO
1.55
Heino
1.55
VVOG
1.55
Kampong
1.55
Aalsmeer
1.55
De Foresters
1.55
Mierlo-Hout
1.55
Telstar
1.50
ASWH
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
MVV
1.50
Koninklijke HFC
1.33
SC Genemuiden
1.33
Dovo
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
De Treffers
1.00
Harkemase Boys
1.00
Kozakken Boys
1.00
Hsc 21
1.00
ADO Den Haag
1.00
Hoek
1.00
UDI '19
1.00
SVV Scheveningen
1.00
Dordrecht
1.00
Den Bosch
1.00
FC OSS
1.00
Roda
1.00
Huizen
1.00
VVV Venlo
1.00
Kloetinge
1.00
ADO '20
1.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.00
UNA
1.00
Olde Veste '54
1.00
Ajax
1.00
NAC Breda
1.00
Vitesse
1.00
Almere City FC
0.00
Emmen
0.00
Hollandia
0.00
GVVV Veenendaal
0.00
ROHDA Raalte
0.00
TOGB
0.00
Excelsior '31
0.00
HHC
0.00
Meerssen
0.00
Helmond Sport
0.00
AZ Alkmaar is 0.20 goals better than NEC Nijmegen in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heracles
0.40
Sportlust '46
0.50
ASWH
0.50
ADO '20
0.50
Barendrecht
0.75
Noordwijk
0.83
Emmen
1.00
De Graafschap
1.00
Telstar
1.00
SC Genemuiden
1.00
Hollandia
1.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.00
UDI '19
1.00
Gemert
1.00
HHC
1.00
Utrecht
1.00
Meerssen
1.00
GO Ahead Eagles
1.00
Ajax
1.00
AZ Alkmaar
1.00
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.25
Feyenoord
1.33
Waalwijk
1.33
FC Lisse
1.33
FC Volendam
1.50
Quick Boys
1.50
Hoek
1.50
Vvsb
1.50
Olde Veste '54
1.50
PSV Eindhoven
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.50
MVV
1.50
Heerenveen
1.67
Sparta Nijkerk
1.75
Willem II
2.00
Harkemase Boys
2.00
Blauw Geel
2.00
Dovo
2.00
Kozakken Boys
2.00
Capelle
2.00
Groningen
2.00
SVV Scheveningen
2.00
Dordrecht
2.00
Den Bosch
2.00
Huizen
2.00
VVV Venlo
2.00
Poortugaal
2.00
NEC Nijmegen
2.00
Fortuna Sittard
2.00
Excelsior Maassluis
2.00
Kloetinge
2.00
DVS 33 Ermelo
2.00
Juliana '31
2.00
NAC Breda
2.00
Hoogeveen
2.15
Walcheren
2.15
Dongen
2.15
ARC
2.15
Groene Ster
2.15
Halsteren
2.15
Velocitas
2.15
Sportclub 25
2.15
't Zand
2.15
Westlandia
2.15
Erp
2.15
AWC
2.15
VV Scherpenzeel
2.15
HZVV
2.15
Staphorst
2.15
Roosendaal
2.15
Zwaluwen
2.15
DVO
2.15
Heino
2.15
VVOG
2.15
Kampong
2.15
Aalsmeer
2.15
De Foresters
2.15
Mierlo-Hout
2.15
Excelsior
2.33
Ijsselmeervogels
2.33
Katwijk
2.50
Eemdijk
2.50
Cambuur
2.50
Twente
2.50
Rijnvogels
2.67
Almere City FC
3.00
Koninklijke HFC
3.00
Hsc 21
3.00
AFC Amsterdam
3.00
GVVV Veenendaal
3.00
RKAV Volendam
3.00
Roda
3.00
TEC
3.00
SteDoCo
3.00
Helmond Sport
3.00
Vitesse
3.00
Hercules
3.33
De Treffers
4.00
Spakenburg
4.00
GOES
4.00
URK
4.00
ADO Den Haag
4.00
ROHDA Raalte
4.00
TOGB
4.00
FC OSS
4.00
PEC Zwolle
4.00
Excelsior '31
4.00
UNA
4.00
ACV
5.00
AZ Alkmaar is 1.00 goals better than NEC Nijmegen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
GO Ahead Eagles
54%
AZ Alkmaar
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AZ Alkmaar
For 6.5 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NEC Nijmegen
For 6.5 · Against 3.8 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.3
9.4
4.2
4.2
4.2
22.6
22.6
22.6
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
15.0
19.0
11.0
vs Similar (14)
9.1
9.1
9.2
4.6
4.9
4.3
24.0
23.6
24.5
vs Weaker (34)
10.2
10.9
9.4
4.1
3.9
4.3
22.4
22.3
22.6
% over line
50%
54%
46%
56%
58%
54%
56%
54%
58%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
44%
42%
46%
44%
46%
42%
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
10.0
3.8
4.0
3.7
23.2
22.9
23.4
vs Stronger (12)
10.3
9.3
11.3
5.1
6.5
3.7
24.7
24.0
25.3
vs Similar (21)
10.2
11.1
9.7
3.8
3.6
3.9
23.1
22.3
23.6
vs Weaker (17)
9.6
9.6
9.6
2.9
2.7
3.3
22.2
22.7
21.6
% over line
56%
52%
59%
52%
57%
48%
60%
61%
59%
% under line
44%
48%
41%
48%
43%
52%
40%
39%
41%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gemert
16.0
Sparta Nijkerk
14.0
Den Bosch
12.1
Quick Boys
12.0
Excelsior Maassluis
12.0
FC OSS
11.8
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
SC Genemuiden
11.0
PSV Eindhoven
11.0
Almere City FC
10.9
GO Ahead Eagles
10.9
Willem II
10.8
Helmond Sport
10.7
Fortuna Sittard
10.7
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
FC Eindhoven
10.5
Telstar
10.5
Heracles
10.5
Emmen
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Waalwijk
10.4
MVV
10.4
FC Volendam
10.4
Roda
10.1
Groningen
10.1
NEC Nijmegen
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Vitesse
9.9
AZ Alkmaar
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Excelsior
9.9
Cambuur
9.7
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.6
Feyenoord
9.6
Katwijk
9.5
Twente
9.2
PEC Zwolle
9.1
Hoek
9.0
AFC Amsterdam
9.0
De Treffers
9.0
Hoogeveen
9.0
GVVV Veenendaal
9.0
Spakenburg
8.0
HHC
8.0
Hsc 21
7.0
Sportlust '46
7.0
Rijnsburgse Boys
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sportlust '46
11.0
De Treffers
6.7
Sparta Nijkerk
6.0
AFC Amsterdam
5.0
Vitesse
4.3
AZ Alkmaar
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Dordrecht
4.1
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Gemert
4.0
Hoek
4.0
Excelsior Maassluis
4.0
Spakenburg
4.0
Hsc 21
4.0
HHC
4.0
Rijnsburgse Boys
4.0
Cambuur
3.9
Ajax
3.9
Twente
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
Emmen
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.8
Fortuna Sittard
3.7
PSV Eindhoven
3.7
Heracles
3.7
Den Bosch
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Groningen
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
FC Volendam
3.5
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
Roda
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.2
Telstar
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
Waalwijk
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Almere City FC
3.1
MVV
3.1
Willem II
3.1
Katwijk
3.0
Quick Boys
3.0
Heerenveen
3.0
GVVV Veenendaal
3.0
Hoogeveen
2.0
SC Genemuiden
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sportlust '46
33.0
Rijnsburgse Boys
32.0
FC OSS
29.5
ADO Den Haag
27.3
Vitesse
27.2
Cambuur
27.0
Emmen
26.0
Dordrecht
25.8
Helmond Sport
25.8
De Treffers
25.7
AFC Amsterdam
25.0
Roda
24.8
Fortuna Sittard
24.6
Sparta Nijkerk
24.0
HHC
24.0
Heracles
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.8
NEC Nijmegen
23.2
Den Bosch
23.1
Gemert
23.0
SC Genemuiden
23.0
Utrecht
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
Feyenoord
22.8
FC Volendam
22.7
De Graafschap
22.7
PEC Zwolle
22.6
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
MVV
22.6
NAC Breda
22.5
Waalwijk
22.3
Willem II
22.2
Excelsior
22.2
Telstar
22.2
Ajax
22.0
Twente
21.2
Heerenveen
21.1
Quick Boys
21.0
GVVV Veenendaal
21.0
Almere City FC
20.6
Excelsior Maassluis
20.5
Groningen
20.3
Sparta Rotterdam
19.6
GO Ahead Eagles
19.5
Hoek
19.0
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Katwijk
17.0
Hsc 21
16.0
Hoogeveen
16.0
Spakenburg
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.9%
Under 9.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
55.7%
Under 21.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AZ Alkmaar or Draw✓ Hit
81.4%
Avg Implied -
61%
21%
19%
covers AZ Alkmaar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen✓ Hit
79.3%
Avg Implied -
61%
21%
19%
covers AZ Alkmaar + NEC Nijmegen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or NEC Nijmegen✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied -
61%
21%
19%
covers Draw + NEC Nijmegen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AZ Alkmaar, so a minus line means AZ Alkmaar give that many goals of a start and NEC Nijmegen receive them. At -1, AZ Alkmaar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AZ Alkmaar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar -2
21.6%
Draw -2
18.2%
NEC Nijmegen +2
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar -1
39.7%
Draw -1
21.0%
NEC Nijmegen +1
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +1
81.4%
Draw +1
10.9%
NEC Nijmegen -1
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (AZ Alkmaar)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar +2
92.3%
Draw +2
5.2%
NEC Nijmegen -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
1.00
0.18
0.38
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.29
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
0.73
0.45
1.00
0.23
0.33
0.78
Clean sheet %
70% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.83
0.93
0.93
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.12
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.79
0.83
1.00
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.24
0.59
1.00
0.85
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
1.43
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.59
1.08
0.46
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.67
1.29
0.50
1.25
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.25
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.79
1.33
0.67
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (50)
€323m
AJA (62)
€260m
FEY (32)
€216m
AA (60)
€205m
UTR (51)
€88m
TWE (27)
€84m
NN (28)
€62m
HEE (23)
€49m
GAE (31)
€36m
SR (26)
€32m
GRO (23)
€32m
PZ (29)
€23m
FS (28)
€22m
EXC (28)
€19m
FV (32)
€14m
WI (26)
€14m
HER (34)
€14m
DOR (34)
€14m
CAM (26)
€12m
TEL (24)
€12m
NB (26)
€11m
ADH (25)
€11m
ACF (28)
€10m
EMM (33)
€9m
DG (22)
€9m
ROD (28)
€7m
WAA (25)
€7m
DB (24)
€7m
VV (29)
€6m
FE (27)
€6m
MVV (28)
€6m
HS (23)
€6m
VIT (25)
€6m
FO (28)
€5m
AZ Alkmaar's squad is €143m more valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€205m vs €62m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (19)
€139m
AJA (24)
€119m
AA (22)
€100m
FEY (13)
€78m
UTR (19)
€30m
NN (13)
€27m
TWE (10)
€26m
HEE (10)
€22m
GAE (12)
€17m
SR (9)
€13m
GRO (8)
€11m
WI (12)
€9m
PZ (12)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (7)
€7m
HER (14)
€7m
DOR (15)
€7m
ACF (10)
€6m
DG (11)
€5m
ADH (12)
€5m
FV (12)
€4m
CAM (10)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
TEL (8)
€4m
EMM (12)
€4m
ROD (12)
€3m
WAA (10)
€3m
DB (9)
€2m
FE (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
HS (8)
€2m
FO (11)
€2m
VIT (8)
€2m
MVV (11)
€2m
AZ Alkmaar's attack is €73m more valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€100m vs €27m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (10)
€77m
AJA (13)
€53m
FEY (4)
€51m
AA (12)
€43m
NN (6)
€26m
UTR (10)
€24m
TWE (4)
€13m
GRO (3)
€9m
HEE (3)
€6m
FS (7)
€6m
GAE (6)
€6m
TEL (7)
€5m
PZ (6)
€5m
FV (7)
€3m
HER (6)
€3m
EMM (8)
€2m
SR (4)
€2m
ADH (3)
€2m
NB (4)
€2m
EXC (4)
€2m
ROD (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DB (5)
€2m
CAM (5)
€2m
FE (4)
€1m
WI (3)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
VIT (5)
€1m
ACF (5)
€1m
FO (4)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
DG (3)
€1m
VV (5)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
AZ Alkmaar's midfield is €17m more valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€43m vs €26m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (21)
€108m
FEY (15)
€87m
AJA (25)
€87m
AA (26)
€62m
TWE (13)
€45m
UTR (22)
€34m
HEE (10)
€20m
SR (13)
€16m
GAE (13)
€14m
GRO (12)
€11m
PZ (11)
€9m
NN (9)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (14)
€8m
FV (13)
€7m
CAM (11)
€6m
DOR (14)
€6m
NB (12)
€5m
HER (14)
€4m
ADH (10)
€4m
WI (11)
€4m
WAA (12)
€4m
ACF (13)
€3m
EMM (13)
€3m
TEL (9)
€3m
VV (14)
€3m
MVV (13)
€3m
ROD (11)
€3m
HS (10)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
VIT (12)
€2m
FE (12)
€2m
FO (13)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
AZ Alkmaar's defence is €52m more valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€62m vs €9m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
Twente
Utrecht
Heerenveen
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Telstar
PEC Zwolle
FC Volendam
NAC Breda
Heracles