PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Babrungas vs Atmosfera Result & Analysis

Date: 19/09/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 3-0
Babrungas
Babrungas
Vs
40%
28%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Babrungas win✓ Hit
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W21W11D40W12L12L00D12L11DA·FA 27/06A·MIN22/07H·ŽAL25/07A·TRA02/08H·BE108/08H·DŽI12/08H·JON17/08A·NEP22/08H·TAU29/08A·NEV12/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.172.001.431.690.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)2.381.382.252.002.500.75
vs Weaker (22)1.641.091.901.201.421.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W01L31W22D20W41W10W50W01L31WH·EKR21/06A·BFA28/06A·KAU22/07H·HEG27/07A·PAN03/08H·FA 09/08A·MIN16/08H·ŽAL23/08A·TRA30/08A·BE114/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.001.671.401.670.60
vs Stronger (25)1.601.121.581.671.620.62
vs Similar (5)2.000.402.000.332.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.7%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
5.6%
Babrungas goals ↓
Atmosfera goals →
01234
07.7%7.2%5.4%2.3%0.7%
18.2%13%7.8%3.4%1.1%
26.8%8.7%5.6%2.4%0.8%
33.3%4.2%2.7%1.2%0.4%
41.2%1.5%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = Atmosfera goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Babrungas is 0.33 points better than Atmosfera in terms of average points per game (1.93 vs 1.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Babrungas is 0.40 goals better than Atmosfera in terms of goals scored per game (2.13 vs 1.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Babrungas is 0.30 goals worse than Atmosfera in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.13).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D21W01L20W01L12L00D01L10WA·FA 27/06A·MIN22/07H·ŽAL25/07A·TRA02/08H·BE108/08H·DŽI12/08H·JON17/08A·NEP22/08H·TAU29/08A·NEV12/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.470.860.640.750.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.120.500.750.751.500.25
vs Weaker (22)0.680.450.900.600.500.33
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D20W10W00D30W00D20W01L11DH·EKR21/06A·BFA28/06A·KAU22/07H·HEG27/07A·PAN03/08H·FA 09/08A·MIN16/08H·ŽAL23/08A·TRA30/08A·BE114/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.430.800.600.670.27
vs Stronger (25)0.680.520.830.750.540.31
vs Similar (5)1.000.000.670.001.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D10W20W11D00D00D11D01LA·FA 27/06A·MIN22/07H·ŽAL25/07A·TRA02/08H·BE108/08H·DŽI12/08H·JON17/08A·NEP22/08H·TAU29/08A·NEV12/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.701.140.790.940.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.250.881.501.251.000.50
vs Weaker (22)0.950.641.000.600.920.67
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W01L11D12L20W11D10W30W00D20WH·EKR21/06A·BFA28/06A·KAU22/07H·HEG27/07A·PAN03/08H·FA 09/08A·MIN16/08H·ŽAL23/08A·TRA30/08A·BE114/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.570.870.801.000.33
vs Stronger (25)0.920.600.750.921.080.31
vs Similar (5)1.000.401.330.330.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
BAB wins
2
Draws
0
ATM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Babrungas vs Atmosfera · H/A from BAB
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/25AAtmosfera Vs BAB1-1
08/11/24HBAB Vs Atmosfera0-0
21/06/24AAtmosfera Vs BAB0-2
10/07/22HBAB Vs Atmosfera7-1
18/03/22AAtmosfera Vs BAB0-1

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/25ANevėžis Vs BAB1-1
29/08/25HBAB Vs Tauras1-2
22/08/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BAB0-0
17/08/25HBAB Vs Jonava1-2
12/08/25HBAB Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-2
08/08/25HBAB Vs Be1 NFA4-0
02/08/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BAB1-1
25/07/25HBAB Vs Žalgiris II2-1
22/07/25AMinija Vs BAB0-1
27/06/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs BAB0-1

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25ABe1 NFA Vs ATM1-3
30/08/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs ATM1-0
23/08/25HATM Vs Žalgiris II5-0
16/08/25AMinija Vs ATM0-1
09/08/25HATM Vs FA Šiauliai II4-1
03/08/25APanevėžys II Vs ATM0-2
27/07/25HATM Vs Hegelmann II2-2
22/07/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs ATM1-3
28/06/25ABFA Vs ATM1-0
21/06/25HATM Vs Ekranas5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Babrungas
Babrungas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD1.86
HomeWWLLL1.87
AwayWWDDD1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%57%52%
AVG goals3.063.432.74
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %60%74%48%
Over 3.5 %38%48%30%
Scored1.982.131.85
Conceded1.081.300.89
BTTS54%70%41%
Clean Sheet42%30%52%
Corners---
Cards---
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.56
HomeLWDWW1.31
AwayWWWLW1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%38%54%
AVG goals2.722.922.50
Over 1.5 %68%73%62%
Over 2.5 %46%54%38%
Over 3.5 %30%35%25%
Scored1.541.461.62
Conceded1.181.460.88
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet32%23%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

← all matches