Babrungas’ recent win streak and their 2.7 average goals at home set the stage for a high-scoring outing, while BFA’s 2.5 goals conceded on the road against stronger teams suggests a defensive wobble. The model favours a home win, with a 60% chance, a 21% draw probability and a 19% away win chance. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a lively match, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1, which carries a 9.6% probability. Babrungas will likely score about 2.7 goals and concede 1.2, whereas BFA is expected to net 1.5 and concede 2.5 against this opponent’s tier. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.2% probability. The home win percentage is 60%, the draw percentage 21%, and the away win percentage 19%.
Results analysis
The win extends Babrungas’ recent run, as they came off a victory and finished the match 2-1 to secure a home win, matching the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite was Home win with a 60% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.2% probability, hit as the final score featured three goals. The most likely scoreline was 2-1, with a 9.6% chance, and the overall expected total of 3.5 goals was close to the actual three. The outcome aligned with the model’s expectations, confirming its accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Babrungas win✓ Hit
60.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.79
1.18
2.46
1.15
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.33
1.67
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (22)
1.95
1.14
2.70
1.20
1.33
1.08
Clean sheet %
36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.86
1.57
2.27
1.33
1.38
1.85
vs Stronger (13)
1.31
2.00
1.14
1.57
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (9)
2.44
1.44
3.40
1.20
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.83
3.00
1.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.8%
Under 2.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.6%
1-1
9.3%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
7.2%
1-0
6.1%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
1-2
5.2%
Babrungas goals ↓
BFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
2.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
1
6.1%
9.3%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
2
7.8%
9.6%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
5.9%
7.2%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
4
3.3%
4.1%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dainava
2.23
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.07
Šiauliai II
2.00
Nevėžis
1.93
Be1 NFA
1.90
Šilas
1.77
Babrungas
1.53
Ekranas
1.37
BFA
1.27
Žalgiris II
1.20
Panevėžys II
1.20
Minija
1.10
Garliava
1.10
Trakai II
1.07
FA Šiauliai II
1.04
Atmosfera
0.80
Banga II
0.67
Babrungas is 0.27 points better than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dainava
2.30
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.20
BFA
1.80
Babrungas
1.73
Nevėžis
1.73
Šilas
1.70
Ekranas
1.60
Panevėžys II
1.57
Šiauliai II
1.50
Žalgiris II
1.47
Atmosfera
1.37
Trakai II
1.37
Be1 NFA
1.30
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Garliava
1.03
Minija
0.90
Banga II
0.87
Babrungas is 0.07 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Šiauliai II
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.63
Nevėžis
0.87
Dainava
1.03
Babrungas
1.13
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.20
Minija
1.30
Šilas
1.37
BFA
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.60
Trakai II
1.60
Garliava
1.67
Ekranas
1.70
FA Šiauliai II
1.89
Panevėžys II
2.10
Banga II
2.23
Atmosfera
2.23
Babrungas is 0.43 goals better than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.52
1.08
0.54
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.59
1.20
0.60
0.83
0.58
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.93
0.87
0.87
0.54
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.15
0.43
1.00
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.89
1.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.59
1.38
0.62
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.55
1.50
0.60
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
52% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
0.64
1.40
0.47
0.85
0.85
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.85
0.71
0.57
1.00
1.17
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.56
1.80
0.40
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.33
2.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
46% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dainava
Neptūną Klaipėda
Nevėžis
Be1 NFA
Šilas
Ekranas
Žalgiris II
Panevėžys II
Minija
Garliava
Trakai II
FA Šiauliai II
Atmosfera
Banga II
Šiauliai II