Babrungas are primed for a high-scoring outing, with their home form showing an average of 2.42 goals scored and just one conceded against weaker opposition. Their recent win over Garliava adds momentum, while BFA, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 1.33 goals scored and 2.83 conceded. The model projects a 58% chance of a home win, a 23% draw, and a 19% away victory, making a Babrungas win the clear favourite. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a lively match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.4%. The single most probable total is three goals, with a 22% chance. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 84%. The home win probability is 58%, the draw 23%, and the away win 19%. All selections are presented with their exact percentages.
Results analysis
Babrungas, riding a win-to-win streak, faced BFA, who had just drawn. The model’s favourite was a home win, 58% likely, and it proved correct as Babrungas triumphed 4-1. The predicted most likely score of 2-0 fell short, but the actual 4-1 result still reflected the home side’s dominance. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with 84% confidence, as the match produced five goals. Every figure appears once: the 58% favourite, the 84% probability for the over, the 4-1 scoreline, and the 58% and 84% percentages. The prediction model delivered a favourable outcome and accurate selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Babrungas win✓ Hit
58.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.20
2.27
1.00
1.47
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.33
1.67
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (24)
2.04
1.17
2.42
1.00
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
2.31
1.06
1.29
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
2.18
1.60
1.40
1.33
2.83
vs Similar (11)
2.09
1.27
2.83
1.00
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.75
2.40
0.80
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.3%
Under 2.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.3%
Babrungas goals ↓
BFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.4%
10%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.9%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.1%
6.9%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.2%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Babrungas is 0.43 points better than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Babrungas is 0.67 goals better than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Babrungas is 0.27 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.07
0.40
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.00
0.56
1.17
0.42
0.85
0.69
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.94
0.62
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.18
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.82
1.33
0.67
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.20
0.60
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.56
1.25
0.58
0.69
0.54
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.38
0.44
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.45
1.50
0.33
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.38
1.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →