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Babrungas vs BFA Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 3-1
Babrungas
Babrungas
Vs
54%
24%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Babrungas are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 54% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a BFA win. The model expects 3.1 goals in total, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.3% probability. Babrungas, who have been strong at home against weaker opponents, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. BFA, playing away against a stronger side, average 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.2% probability. The match is set for a home win, 1-1 being the most probable score. The model’s selections, each with its own probability, are: Over 1.5 - 82.2%.

Results analysis

The win extends Babrungas’ recent run, with a 3-1 triumph over BFA confirming the model’s pick of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 54% probability and the prediction proved correct. The model also called Over 1.5 goals, a 82.2% chance that hit. The final score of 3-1 matched the actual result, giving the home side a decisive victory. Babrungas’ strong home form and BFA’s weaker away performance helped deliver the expected outcome, while the most likely scoreline of 2-0 or 2-1 was eclipsed by the higher-scoring result. Overall, the selections largely came in as forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Babrungas win✓ Hit
54.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W11D40W12L12L00D12L11D30W20WH·ŽAL25/07A·TRA02/08H·BE108/08H·DŽI12/08H·JON17/08A·NEP22/08H·TAU29/08A·NEV12/09H·ATM19/09A·EKR26/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.132.211.431.750.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)2.711.573.002.672.500.75
vs Weaker (23)1.741.002.001.091.500.92
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D21W10W22D51W11D10W03L00DH·EKR23/07H·JON26/07A·KAU02/08H·HEG09/08A·PAN16/08H·FA 23/08A·MIN30/08H·ŽAL12/09A·TRA20/09A·BE126/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.071.640.711.311.38
vs Stronger (14)1.141.361.571.290.711.43
vs Similar (10)1.901.002.000.251.831.50
vs Weaker (6)1.500.501.330.001.671.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.3%
Under 2.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.9%
3-1 ✓
6.3%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
Babrungas goals ↓
BFA goals →
01234
05.6%4.3%3.1%1.2%0.3%
17.9%11%5.9%2.3%0.7%
28.5%9.8%5.7%2.2%0.6%
35.5%6.3%3.6%1.4%0.4%
42.6%3.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Babrungas is 0.10 points better than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.93 vs 1.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Babrungas is 0.57 goals better than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (2.13 vs 1.57).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Babrungas is 0.23 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L20W01L12L00D01L10W10W00DH·ŽAL25/07A·TRA02/08H·BE108/08H·DŽI12/08H·JON17/08A·NEP22/08H·TAU29/08A·NEV12/09H·ATM19/09A·EKR26/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.470.930.640.750.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.290.571.001.001.500.25
vs Weaker (23)0.700.430.910.550.500.33
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W10W11D10W10W10W02L00DH·EKR23/07H·JON26/07A·KAU02/08H·HEG09/08A·PAN16/08H·FA 23/08A·MIN30/08H·ŽAL12/09A·TRA20/09A·BE126/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.330.640.210.750.44
vs Stronger (14)0.500.500.570.430.430.57
vs Similar (10)1.100.200.750.001.330.33
vs Weaker (6)0.500.170.670.000.330.33
Clean sheet %73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W20W11D00D00D11D01L20W20WH·ŽAL25/07A·TRA02/08H·BE108/08H·DŽI12/08H·JON17/08A·NEP22/08H·TAU29/08A·NEV12/09H·ATM19/09A·EKR26/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.671.290.791.000.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.431.002.001.671.000.50
vs Weaker (23)1.040.571.090.551.000.58
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D11D00D11D41W01L00D01L00DH·EKR23/07H·JON26/07A·KAU02/08H·HEG09/08A·PAN16/08H·FA 23/08A·MIN30/08H·ŽAL12/09A·TRA20/09A·BE126/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.731.000.500.560.94
vs Stronger (14)0.640.861.000.860.290.86
vs Similar (10)0.800.801.250.250.501.17
vs Weaker (6)1.000.330.670.001.330.67
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
BAB wins
0
Draws
2
BFA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Babrungas vs BFA · H/A from BAB
DateH/AGameScore
31/05/25ABFA Vs BAB3-2
23/08/24HBAB Vs BFA3-1
30/03/24ABFA Vs BAB3-2
26/08/23ABFA Vs BAB1-2
07/04/23HBAB Vs BFA4-1
09/11/22HBAB Vs BFA2-1
18/06/22ABFA Vs BAB0-3

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25AEkranas Vs BAB0-2
19/09/25HBAB Vs Atmosfera3-0
12/09/25ANevėžis Vs BAB1-1
29/08/25HBAB Vs Tauras1-2
22/08/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BAB0-0
17/08/25HBAB Vs Jonava1-2
12/08/25HBAB Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-2
08/08/25HBAB Vs Be1 NFA4-0
02/08/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BAB1-1
25/07/25HBAB Vs Žalgiris II2-1

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25ABe1 NFA Vs BFA0-0
20/09/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BFA3-0
12/09/25HBFA Vs Žalgiris II1-0
30/08/25AMinija Vs BFA1-1
23/08/25HBFA Vs FA Šiauliai II5-1
16/08/25APanevėžys II Vs BFA2-2
09/08/25HBFA Vs Hegelmann II1-0
02/08/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BFA1-2
26/07/25HBFA Vs Jonava0-0
23/07/25HBFA Vs Ekranas1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Babrungas
Babrungas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.90
HomeWLLLW1.96
AwayWDDDW1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%61%52%
AVG goals3.103.482.78
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %62%78%48%
Over 3.5 %38%48%30%
Scored2.042.221.89
Conceded1.061.260.89
BTTS52%65%41%
Clean Sheet44%35%52%
Corners---
Cards---
BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLD1.42
HomeWDWWW1.75
AwayWDDLD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%27%
AVG goals2.963.002.92
Over 1.5 %78%67%88%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored1.481.831.15
Conceded1.481.171.77
BTTS48%38%58%
Clean Sheet28%42%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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