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Babrungas vs Nevėžis Result & Analysis

Date: 29/09/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Babrungas
Babrungas
Vs
50%
25%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Babrungas win✗ Miss
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis win✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D10W43W52W12L31W21W11D62W02LH·MIN23/06A·FA 30/06A·GAR29/07H·PAN04/08A·ŽAL12/08H·EKR18/08A·BFA26/08A·KAU31/08H·ŠIL15/09A·BE123/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.301.941.311.711.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.431.571.502.001.331.00
vs Weaker (23)1.961.222.081.081.821.36
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W12L02L21W23L11D02L41W22D22DH·JON23/06A·TRA01/07A·TRA31/07H·MIN04/08A·FA 12/08H·GAR18/08A·PAN28/08H·ŽAL31/08A·EKR16/09H·BFA22/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.001.670.801.201.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.701.301.201.000.201.60
vs Weaker (20)1.800.851.900.701.701.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.1%
Under 2.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.8%
Under 3.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.2%
No
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
7.0%
1-2 ✓
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
0-0
5.3%
Babrungas goals ↓
Nevėžis goals →
01234
05.3%4.4%3.5%1.5%0.5%
17.0%11%6.6%2.8%0.9%
27.5%9.6%6.1%2.6%0.8%
34.7%6.0%3.8%1.6%0.5%
42.2%2.8%1.8%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Babrungas goals (down), columns = Nevėžis goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Babrungas is 0.04 points better than Nevėžis in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.66).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Babrungas is 0.48 goals better than Nevėžis in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Babrungas is 0.53 goals worse than Nevėžis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.10).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L20W11D11D10W10W21W00DH·MIN23/06A·FA 30/06A·GAR29/07H·PAN04/08A·ŽAL12/08H·EKR18/08A·BFA26/08A·KAU31/08H·ŠIL15/09A·BE123/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.330.810.380.790.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.570.290.500.500.670.00
vs Weaker (23)0.870.350.920.330.820.36
Clean sheet %73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W00D00D11D11D00D20W10W11DH·JON23/06A·TRA01/07A·TRA31/07H·MIN04/08A·FA 12/08H·GAR18/08A·PAN28/08H·ŽAL31/08A·EKR16/09H·BFA22/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.270.730.330.530.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.300.300.400.400.200.20
vs Weaker (20)0.800.250.900.300.700.20
Clean sheet %73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BabrungasBabrungas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W42W32W01L20W11D01L41W02LH·MIN23/06A·FA 30/06A·GAR29/07H·PAN04/08A·ŽAL12/08H·EKR18/08A·BFA26/08A·KAU31/08H·ŠIL15/09A·BE123/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.971.120.940.931.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.861.291.001.500.671.00
vs Weaker (23)1.090.871.170.751.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L02L21W12L00D02L21W12L11DH·JON23/06A·TRA01/07A·TRA31/07H·MIN04/08A·FA 12/08H·GAR18/08A·PAN28/08H·ŽAL31/08A·EKR16/09H·BFA22/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.730.930.470.671.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.401.000.800.600.001.40
vs Weaker (20)1.000.601.000.401.000.80
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
BAB wins
2
Draws
1
NEV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Babrungas vs Nevėžis · H/A from BAB
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/23ANevėžis Vs BAB1-1
09/09/22ANevėžis Vs BAB2-1
13/05/22HBAB Vs Nevėžis1-1

BabrungasBabrungas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23ABe1 NFA Vs BAB2-0
15/09/23HBAB Vs Šilas6-2
31/08/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BAB1-1
26/08/23ABFA Vs BAB1-2
18/08/23HBAB Vs Ekranas3-1
12/08/23AŽalgiris II Vs BAB2-1
04/08/23HBAB Vs Panevėžys II5-2
29/07/23AGarliava Vs BAB3-4
30/06/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs BAB0-1
23/06/23HBAB Vs Minija1-1

NevėžisNevėžis

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/23HNEV Vs BFA2-2
16/09/23AEkranas Vs NEV2-2
31/08/23HNEV Vs Žalgiris II4-1
28/08/23APanevėžys II Vs NEV2-0
18/08/23HNEV Vs Garliava1-1
12/08/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs NEV3-2
04/08/23HNEV Vs Minija2-1
31/07/23ATrakai II Vs NEV2-0
01/07/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs NEV2-1
23/06/23HNEV Vs Jonava5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Babrungas
Babrungas
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.64
HomeLDWWW1.96
AwayWLWDL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%58%35%
AVG goals3.163.542.81
Over 1.5 %86%83%88%
Over 2.5 %54%62%46%
Over 3.5 %34%46%23%
Scored1.882.331.46
Conceded1.281.211.35
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet26%25%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDD1.88
HomeWWDWD2.36
AwayLLLLD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%72%36%
AVG goals2.602.722.48
Over 1.5 %68%64%72%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.681.961.40
Conceded0.920.761.08
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet34%40%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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