Barcelona’s dominance at home is reflected in the model’s 78% chance of a win, a 16% draw and only a 6% chance of a Rayo Vallecano victory, making the home win the clear favourite. The average goals expected in the match is 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 2-0 win for Barcelona, with a 14.2% chance. Barcelona’s home form against weaker opponents shows an average of 3.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Rayo Vallecano’s away form against stronger teams yields 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The suggested selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.8% with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.7%, Home +2 handicap at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8% with a 2% edge, Under 7.5 at 98.3% with a 5% edge, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.2% with a 4% edge, Under 6.5 at 95.5% with an 8% edge, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 95.4% with a 4% edge. Barcelona’s recent 2-game winning streak and the 2-0 victory over Athletic Club reinforce the model’s confidence in a decisive home win.
Results analysis
Barcelona’s 5-2 triumph over Rayo Vallecano confirmed the model’s prediction that the home side would win, a call that proved correct. The win extended Barcelona’s three-game winning run, while Rayo Vallecano returned to the field after a defeat. The model had given Barcelona a 78% chance of victory, and the final score matched the favoured outcome. The selections were largely accurate: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.7%, Home +2 handicap at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.2%, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 95.4%. Only Under 6.5 missed, coming in at 95.5%. The model’s choices largely came through, underscoring its accuracy for this match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barcelona win✓ Hit
78.2%
Avg Implied 87.2% · @ 1.10
Edge
-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Draw✗ Miss
15.5%
Avg Implied 8.6% · @ 11.10
Edge
+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
12.00
Dafabet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Bet365
12.00
1xBet
11.70
Rayo Vallecano win✗ Miss
6.3%
Avg Implied 4.1% · @ 23.17
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
27.00
Pinnacle
26.50
Marathonbet
26.00
BetVictor
26.00
Dafabet
25.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barcelona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.00
3.00
0.67
1.80
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.33
1.67
0.67
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.62
0.92
3.33
0.67
1.92
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.13
1.60
0.80
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
1.00
2.17
0.67
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.21
1.22
0.89
1.10
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.8%
@ 1.05-7.1%
Under 1.5
17.2%
@ 9.21+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Under
Unibet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.60
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.23-16.1%
Under 2.5
39.3%
@ 4.10+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Under
BetVictor
4.60
Unibet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.4%
@ 1.60-20.8%
Under 3.5
61.6%
@ 2.33+20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.69
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
Betfair
2.38
Unibet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.0%
@ 2.01-3.4%
No
57.0%
@ 1.74+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.05
BetVictor
2.00
No
Unibet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.8%@ 8.10+8.1%
3-0
11.6%@ 7.00+5.0%
1-0
10.3%@ 12.68+6.6%
2-1
8.5%@ 11.64+4.5%
1-1
7.4%@ 18.74+4.9%
4-0
7.3%@ 7.84+1.4%
3-1
7.2%@ 10.24+2.6%
0-0
5.0%@ 34.78+3.7%
Barcelona goals ↓
Rayo Vallecano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
10%
7.4%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
2
14%
8.5%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
12%
7.2%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
7.3%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barcelona goals (down), columns = Rayo Vallecano goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Barcelona is 1.16 points better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average points per game (2.47 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Barcelona is 1.42 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Barcelona is 0.21 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Barcelona is 15.3 percentage points better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average possession (69% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Barcelona
For 5.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
For 4.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 11.6 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barcelona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.3
10.2
4.3
3.7
4.8
21.8
21.2
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
10.6
11.4
9.8
6.1
4.8
7.4
23.8
22.6
25.0
vs Weaker (40)
10.8
11.2
10.3
3.8
3.5
4.2
21.3
20.9
21.8
% over line
62%
60%
64%
52%
44%
60%
54%
48%
60%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
48%
56%
40%
46%
52%
40%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.1
10.4
5.6
5.1
6.0
25.8
23.4
27.9
vs Stronger (14)
10.2
9.9
10.6
6.0
5.9
6.1
26.2
25.6
26.9
vs Similar (33)
10.8
11.6
10.2
5.7
4.9
6.4
25.5
22.3
28.3
vs Weaker (3)
13.0
12.0
14.0
2.0
3.0
1.5
27.5
26.0
29.0
% over line
67%
74%
62%
72%
70%
74%
84%
74%
92%
% under line
33%
26%
38%
28%
30%
26%
16%
26%
8%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.8
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.5
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.3
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.1
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.7%
@ 1.46-3.4%
Under 9.5
40.3%
@ 2.50+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Betfair
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Marathonbet
2.50
Betano
2.50
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.88+23.3%
Under 3.5
27.2%
@ 1.85-23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.98
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.0%
@ 1.50+14.2%
Under 21.5
25.0%
@ 2.33-14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.30
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barcelona or Draw✓ Hit
95.2%
Avg Implied 94.6% · @ 1.02
Edge
+0.6%
78%
16%
6%
covers Barcelona + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
William Hil
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Barcelona or Rayo Vallecano✓ Hit
86.4%
Avg Implied 91.3% · @ 1.05
Edge
-5.0%
78%
16%
6%
covers Barcelona + Rayo Vallecano
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Draw or Rayo Vallecano✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied 14.0% · @ 6.87
Edge
+4.4%
78%
16%
6%
covers Draw + Rayo Vallecano
Best 5 market prices
Betano
7.70
Superbet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barcelona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.0%
@ 1.01-0.6%
Under
7.0%
@ 14.80+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Under
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
19.00
1xBet
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Betano
11.50
Barcelona over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
74.3%
@ 1.13-8.3%
Under
25.7%
@ 5.39+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Betano
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.70
Betano
5.60
Barcelona over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
49.6%
@ 1.38-17.6%
Under
50.4%
@ 2.84+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.88
Barcelona over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
27.6%
@ 2.00-19.2%
Under
72.4%
@ 1.76+19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
41.9%
@ 1.96-5.5%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.77+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
10.4%
@ 6.06-5.0%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.10+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.20
Under
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 17.25-3.8%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Marathonbet
13.50
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Rayo Vallecano over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.2%
@ 46.67-1.9%
Under
99.8%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
75.00
Bet365
51.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barcelona, so a minus line means Barcelona give that many goals of a start and Rayo Vallecano receive them. At -1, Barcelona must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barcelona win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona -2
38.7%
@ 1.72-14.2%
Draw -2
22.7%
@ 4.41+2.1%
Rayo Vallecano +2
38.6%
@ 3.42+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Away
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Handicap -1 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona -1
61.4%
@ 1.27-9.7%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 5.59+4.0%
Rayo Vallecano +1
18.4%
@ 7.19+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Draw
Superbet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Away
Marathonbet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Handicap +1 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona +1
95.2%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Draw +1
3.7%
@ 16.83-2.0%
Rayo Vallecano -1
1.1%
@ 48.67-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
76.00
Bet365
51.00
10Bet
19.00
Handicap +2 (Barcelona)Actual: Barcelona
Barcelona +2
98.9%
Draw +2
0.9%
Rayo Vallecano -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.40
0.33
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.04
0.38
1.42
0.33
0.67
0.42
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.67
0.27
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.45
1.17
0.17
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.58
0.33
0.33
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.8%
@ 1.14-3.3%
Under 0.5
21.2%
@ 5.24+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Superbet
5.85
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.2%
@ 1.71-6.8%
Under 1.5
51.8%
@ 2.09+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.20
SBO
2.16
Pinnacle
2.14
William Hil
2.10
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.3%
@ 3.26-9.5%
Under 2.5
80.7%
@ 1.31+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Under
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
71.3%
@ 1.20-6.1%
Under
28.7%
@ 4.10+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Under
Superbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Betano
3.85
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
33.5%
@ 1.98-13.3%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.75+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Under
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 4.02-10.9%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.20+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.15
Unibet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Under
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
26.8%
@ 3.67+1.5%
Under
73.2%
@ 1.25-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Pinnacle
3.76
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.55
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 14.00-2.0%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.3%
@ 75.00-99.7%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
75.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.47
1.60
0.33
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.58
0.54
1.92
0.33
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.93
0.53
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.55
1.00
0.50
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.63
0.89
0.56
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.1%
@ 1.08-2.7%
Under 0.5
15.9%
@ 7.14+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
Under
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.20
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.30
William Hil
6.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.3%
@ 1.41-10.8%
Under 1.5
44.7%
@ 2.76+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.92
Marathonbet
2.92
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.87
Unibet
2.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
28.9%
@ 2.29-12.2%
Under 2.5
71.1%
@ 1.60+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.45
10Bet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.23
Under
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Unibet
1.60
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
81.2%
@ 1.11-2.4%
Under
18.8%
@ 5.68+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Under
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.55
Betano
5.50
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.5%
@ 1.59-13.8%
Under
55.5%
@ 2.23+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Under
1xBet
2.28
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
14.8%
@ 2.79-18.4%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.39+18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.76
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.35
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
32.2%
@ 2.90+0.2%
Under
67.8%
@ 1.36-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.92
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 10.71-4.2%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.25
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
9.60
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 34.50-1.7%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+9.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
William Hil
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
95.2%
1.03
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
89.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
89.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+14.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.20
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
86.4%
1.05
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.2%
1.39
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.35
+18.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.1%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-7.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.7%
1.31
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.8%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Home win
78.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
-9.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.1%
1.60
1xBet
1.68
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.62
+18.6%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
75.0%
1.50
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.48
-
-
-
+14.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Betano
1.12
-8.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-1.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
72.4%
1.76
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.78
+19.2%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
1.27
Superbet
1.33
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.20
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.1%
1.60
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Unibet
1.60
+12.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Barcelona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Raphinha100%
Fermín López67%
Karim Adeyemi33%
Lamine Yamal33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Pedri0%
Anthony Gordon0%
Joan García0%
Marc Bernal0%
Xavi Espart0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Xavi Espart33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Raphinha0%
Karim Adeyemi0%
Pedri0%
Anthony Gordon0%
Joan García0%
Fermín López0%
Lamine Yamal0%
Marc Bernal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Gordon67%
Xavi Espart67%
Raphinha33%
Karim Adeyemi33%
Pedri33%
Marc Bernal33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Joan García0%
Fermín López0%
Lamine Yamal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Raphinha67%
Lamine Yamal67%
Anthony Gordon33%
Fermín López33%
João Cancelo0%
Jules Koundé0%
Dani Olmo0%
Karim Adeyemi0%
Pedri0%
Joan García0%
Marc Bernal0%
Xavi Espart0%
Rayo Vallecano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergio Camello67%
Álvaro García33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Camello33%
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Fran Pérez33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Jorge de Frutos33%
Sergio Camello0%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Fran Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Camello33%
Florian Lejeune33%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Álvaro García0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Barcelona's squad is €1206m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€1282m vs €76m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Barcelona's attack is €560m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€590m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Barcelona's midfield is €314m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€324m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Barcelona's defence is €332m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€368m vs €36m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Elche
Malaga