This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.37
0.57
1.07
0.69
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.08
0.67
1.33
0.83
2.83
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.88
0.50
0.88
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.4%
Under 1.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.13-9.0%
Under 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.68+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.2%
Under 3.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.1%
No
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
14.1%
0-0
13.5%
2-0
9.7%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.3%
Bari goals ↓
Cittadella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.2%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.5%
1.5%
0.3%
2
9.7%
8.2%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.1%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bari goals (down), columns = Cittadella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sassuolo
2.16
Pisa
1.95
Spezia
1.74
Cremonese
1.62
Juve Stabia
1.49
Catanzaro
1.37
Cesena
1.36
Palermo
1.33
Bari
1.26
Sudtirol
1.21
Modena
1.18
Carrarese
1.18
Reggiana
1.16
Mantova
1.16
Brescia
1.13
Frosinone
1.13
Sampdoria
1.13
Salernitana
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Cosenza
0.89
Bari is 0.21 points better than Cittadella in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sassuolo
2.05
Cremonese
1.64
Pisa
1.63
Spezia
1.55
Palermo
1.33
Sudtirol
1.32
Catanzaro
1.29
Modena
1.26
Mantova
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Brescia
1.11
Reggiana
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.10
Bari
1.08
Carrarese
1.03
Sampdoria
1.03
Frosinone
0.97
Salernitana
0.95
Cosenza
0.84
Cittadella
0.82
Bari is 0.26 goals better than Cittadella in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spezia
0.88
Pisa
0.97
Sassuolo
1.00
Bari
1.05
Juve Stabia
1.10
Palermo
1.13
Cremonese
1.14
Catanzaro
1.20
Cesena
1.23
Salernitana
1.26
Sampdoria
1.26
Brescia
1.26
Carrarese
1.29
Frosinone
1.32
Modena
1.32
Reggiana
1.37
Cittadella
1.42
Cosenza
1.47
Mantova
1.47
Sudtirol
1.50
Bari is 0.37 goals better than Cittadella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
62%
Cremonese
60%
Catanzaro
55%
Sassuolo
52%
Salernitana
52%
Juve Stabia
52%
Bari
51%
Spezia
50%
Palermo
49%
Carrarese
49%
Cosenza
49%
Cesena
49%
Modena
48%
Sampdoria
48%
Frosinone
47%
Brescia
46%
Pisa
46%
Cittadella
45%
Reggiana
44%
Sudtirol
44%
Bari is 5.7 percentage points better than Cittadella in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bari
For 3.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.3 · Against 13.7 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
For 4.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 13.8 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bari
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.6
8.5
5.7
5.4
6.1
30.4
30.0
30.7
vs Stronger (5)
9.8
11.3
7.5
4.6
4.3
5.0
27.2
27.7
26.5
vs Similar (33)
9.8
10.8
8.9
5.7
5.6
5.8
30.5
30.5
30.5
vs Weaker (12)
8.8
9.8
7.7
6.3
5.3
7.3
31.2
30.0
32.5
% over line
48%
68%
28%
86%
80%
92%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
52%
32%
72%
14%
20%
8%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.2
9.7
5.0
4.9
5.2
30.4
30.9
30.0
vs Stronger (21)
9.3
9.0
9.6
4.8
4.7
4.9
28.5
29.8
27.1
vs Similar (27)
8.8
7.5
9.9
5.1
4.8
5.3
31.9
31.4
32.2
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
6.5
8.0
5.0
31.0
37.0
25.0
% over line
42%
33%
50%
80%
83%
77%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
58%
67%
50%
20%
17%
23%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Juve Stabia
10.7
Cosenza
10.4
Palermo
10.2
Frosinone
10.1
Salernitana
10.0
Spezia
10.0
Sassuolo
9.9
Cremonese
9.8
Cesena
9.7
Modena
9.7
Bari
9.6
Brescia
9.5
Reggiana
9.0
Cittadella
9.0
Sudtirol
8.9
Catanzaro
8.9
Sampdoria
8.9
Mantova
8.8
Pisa
8.6
Carrarese
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cosenza
6.4
Juve Stabia
6.4
Spezia
6.3
Sampdoria
5.9
Pisa
5.9
Bari
5.7
Reggiana
5.7
Modena
5.6
Mantova
5.4
Brescia
5.3
Cremonese
5.2
Catanzaro
5.2
Sudtirol
5.1
Palermo
5.1
Cittadella
5.0
Salernitana
4.7
Carrarese
4.6
Frosinone
4.5
Cesena
4.4
Sassuolo
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
35.6
Juve Stabia
32.8
Spezia
32.4
Cittadella
30.4
Bari
30.4
Sampdoria
30.3
Reggiana
29.7
Carrarese
29.3
Brescia
29.2
Sudtirol
29.1
Cesena
29.1
Catanzaro
29.0
Modena
28.4
Cosenza
28.3
Palermo
27.9
Cremonese
27.6
Pisa
27.6
Salernitana
26.5
Frosinone
24.9
Sassuolo
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.8%
Under 9.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.9%
Under 3.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.6%
Under 21.5
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.31
0.31
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.29
0.50
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.92
0.50
0.83
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.29
0.38
0.25
0.22
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bari over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.88
0.69
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.65
0.80
0.70
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.14
0.57
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.17
0.50
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (17)
0.24
0.59
0.12
0.62
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bari over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bari over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bari
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giacomo Ricci33%
Giulio Maggiore23%
Andrea Favilli23%
Kevin Lasagna20%
Lorenco Šimić14%
Nicholas Bonfanti12%
Gastón Pereiro11%
Mehdi Dorval11%
Andrija Novakovich10%
Giacomo Manzari8%
Nunzio Lella8%
Raffaele Maiello7%
Nicola Bellomo5%
Giuseppe Sibilli5%
César Falletti4%
Costantino Favasuli3%
Raffaele Pucino3%
Valerio Mantovani3%
Ahmad Benali3%
Mattia Maita3%
Francesco Vicari0%
Alessandro Tripaldelli0%
Boris Radunović0%
Lorenzo Sgarbi0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Nosa Edward Obaretin0%
Coli Saco0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ahmad Benali40%
Mattia Maita28%
Andrea Favilli27%
Costantino Favasuli27%
Nosa Edward Obaretin23%
Raffaele Pucino23%
Gastón Pereiro22%
Valerio Mantovani21%
Raffaele Maiello20%
Coli Saco18%
Nicola Bellomo16%
Giulio Maggiore15%
Francesco Vicari15%
Giuseppe Sibilli15%
Boris Radunović13%
Alessandro Tripaldelli12%
César Falletti11%
Mehdi Dorval11%
Andrija Novakovich10%
Andrea Oliveri10%
Giacomo Manzari8%
Nunzio Lella8%
Lorenco Šimić7%
Nicholas Bonfanti6%
Kevin Lasagna3%
Giacomo Ricci0%
Lorenzo Sgarbi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lorenzo Sgarbi22%
Giuseppe Sibilli20%
Raffaele Pucino13%
César Falletti11%
Mehdi Dorval11%
Andrija Novakovich7%
Andrea Oliveri7%
Nicholas Bonfanti6%
Ahmad Benali6%
Mattia Maita6%
Nicola Bellomo5%
Andrea Favilli5%
Nosa Edward Obaretin4%
Costantino Favasuli3%
Gastón Pereiro0%
Nunzio Lella0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Giulio Maggiore0%
Lorenco Šimić0%
Francesco Vicari0%
Alessandro Tripaldelli0%
Raffaele Maiello0%
Boris Radunović0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Giacomo Ricci0%
Giacomo Manzari0%
Coli Saco0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrea Favilli14%
Kevin Lasagna11%
Gastón Pereiro11%
Giacomo Manzari8%
Nunzio Lella8%
Giulio Maggiore8%
César Falletti7%
Lorenco Šimić7%
Nicola Bellomo5%
Mehdi Dorval5%
Giuseppe Sibilli5%
Andrija Novakovich3%
Raffaele Pucino3%
Francesco Vicari0%
Alessandro Tripaldelli0%
Ahmad Benali0%
Raffaele Maiello0%
Boris Radunović0%
Valerio Mantovani0%
Giacomo Ricci0%
Mattia Maita0%
Lorenzo Sgarbi0%
Nicholas Bonfanti0%
Andrea Oliveri0%
Nosa Edward Obaretin0%
Coli Saco0%
Costantino Favasuli0%
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Alessio Vita12%
Simone Rabbi11%
Claudio Cassano10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Mario Ravasio5%
Federico Casolari4%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Edoardo Masciangelo3%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Alessandro Salvi0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefano Piccinini60%
Riccardo Palmieri38%
Federico Casolari35%
Simone Branca32%
Elio Capradossi31%
Matteo Angeli29%
Andrea Cecchetto25%
Alessandro Salvi24%
Simone Tronchin22%
Nicola Pavan21%
Francesco Amatucci21%
Simone Rabbi19%
Luca Pandolfi18%
Alessio Rizza17%
Alessio Vita15%
Stefano Negro14%
Mario Ravasio14%
Lorenzo Carissoni14%
Edoardo Masciangelo14%
Jacopo Desogus12%
Andrea Tessiore12%
Andrea Magrassi11%
Luca Maniero10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Davide Diaw0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Magrassi11%
Mario Ravasio10%
Simone Tronchin9%
Edoardo Masciangelo8%
Francesco D'Alessio8%
Orji Okwonkwo6%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Simone Rabbi6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessio Vita3%
Lorenzo Carissoni3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Riccardo Palmieri0%
Luca Pandolfi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Pandolfi33%
Orji Okwonkwo19%
Mario Ravasio14%
Simone Rabbi8%
Riccardo Palmieri8%
Alessandro Salvi6%
Alessio Vita6%
Jacopo Desogus4%
Francesco Amatucci3%
Luca Maniero0%
Simone Branca0%
Davide Diaw0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Stefano Negro0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Edoardo Masciangelo0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Davide Voltan0%
Emmanuele Matino0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Stefano Piccinini0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco D'Alessio0%
Federico Casolari0%
Claudio Cassano0%
Andrea Cecchetto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Sassuolo
Pisa
Spezia
Cremonese
Juve Stabia
Catanzaro
Cesena
Palermo
Sudtirol
Modena
Carrarese
Mantova
Sampdoria
Reggiana
Brescia
Frosinone
Salernitana
Cosenza