This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.70
0.56
1.44
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (24)
0.75
1.67
0.53
1.33
1.11
2.22
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.83
1.00
3.00
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.5%
@ 2.05-3.3%
Under 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.73+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.3%
2-0
12.9%
1-1
12.1%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
7.1%
0-1
5.5%
3-1 ✓
5.1%
Barrow goals ↓
Hartlepool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
5.5%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
1
14%
12%
3.9%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.2%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
7.1%
5.1%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
3.0%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barrow goals (down), columns = Hartlepool goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leyton Orient
1.98
Stevenage
1.85
Northampton
1.80
Stockport
1.72
Bradford
1.65
Carlisle
1.65
Mansfield
1.63
Salford
1.63
Barrow
1.35
Grimsby
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Sutton
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Tranmere
1.26
Newport County
1.24
Doncaster
1.20
Walsall
1.20
Gillingham
1.20
Harrogate
1.13
Colchester
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.00
Hartlepool
0.93
Rochdale
0.83
Barrow is 0.41 points better than Hartlepool in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 0.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Mansfield
1.57
Salford
1.57
Carlisle
1.43
Stockport
1.41
Northampton
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Bradford
1.33
Stevenage
1.33
Harrogate
1.28
Newport County
1.15
Hartlepool
1.13
Grimsby
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.04
Crewe
1.04
Barrow
1.02
Sutton
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Rochdale
1.00
Tranmere
0.98
Colchester
0.96
Gillingham
0.78
Barrow is 0.11 goals worse than Hartlepool in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leyton Orient
0.74
Stockport
0.80
Stevenage
0.85
Northampton
0.91
Bradford
0.93
Carlisle
0.93
Tranmere
1.04
Walsall
1.07
Gillingham
1.07
Colchester
1.11
Barrow
1.15
Salford
1.17
Swindon
1.20
Mansfield
1.20
Grimsby
1.22
Newport County
1.22
Sutton
1.26
AFC Wimbledon
1.30
Crewe
1.30
Doncaster
1.41
Harrogate
1.48
Rochdale
1.52
Crawley Town
1.54
Hartlepool
1.70
Barrow is 0.54 goals better than Hartlepool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
58%
Leyton Orient
58%
Salford
57%
Bradford
54%
Stockport
54%
Mansfield
53%
Hartlepool
51%
Crawley Town
51%
Northampton
51%
Tranmere
51%
Grimsby
50%
Doncaster
50%
Rochdale
49%
Harrogate
48%
Crewe
48%
Stevenage
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Newport County
46%
Carlisle
46%
Sutton
46%
Walsall
46%
Barrow
46%
Colchester
46%
Gillingham
45%
Barrow is 5.3 percentage points worse than Hartlepool in terms of average possession (46% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Barrow
For 6.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.8 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hartlepool
For 4.2 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barrow
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.9
10.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
23.5
23.4
23.5
vs Stronger (8)
11.4
11.7
10.5
4.5
3.8
6.5
24.1
23.5
26.0
vs Similar (38)
10.2
10.7
9.8
4.2
4.4
4.0
23.4
23.4
23.3
vs Weaker (4)
12.2
10.0
13.0
3.5
3.0
3.7
23.2
23.0
23.3
% over line
66%
76%
56%
62%
56%
68%
72%
64%
80%
% under line
34%
24%
44%
38%
44%
32%
28%
36%
20%
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.8
9.4
2.8
2.5
3.1
21.0
22.2
19.7
vs Stronger (37)
9.2
9.3
9.2
3.1
2.6
3.7
21.9
22.8
20.9
vs Similar (13)
8.7
7.3
9.9
1.8
2.3
1.4
18.5
20.5
16.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
40%
60%
40%
28%
52%
46%
52%
40%
% under line
50%
60%
40%
60%
72%
48%
54%
48%
60%
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barrow
10.6
Sutton
10.3
Grimsby
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.2
Bradford
10.1
Tranmere
10.1
Harrogate
10.0
Crewe
10.0
Mansfield
10.0
Swindon
10.0
Stevenage
9.8
Crawley Town
9.7
Rochdale
9.6
Doncaster
9.6
Salford
9.5
Colchester
9.5
Walsall
9.4
Carlisle
9.4
Newport County
9.2
Gillingham
9.2
Hartlepool
9.1
Stockport
9.1
Northampton
8.8
Leyton Orient
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Leyton Orient
4.3
Barrow
4.2
Swindon
3.9
Northampton
3.9
Colchester
3.6
Mansfield
3.5
Stockport
3.5
Salford
3.3
Sutton
3.3
Bradford
3.3
Walsall
3.3
Newport County
3.3
Grimsby
3.2
Carlisle
3.2
Gillingham
3.2
Crewe
3.2
Rochdale
3.2
Tranmere
3.1
Crawley Town
3.1
Harrogate
3.0
Stevenage
3.0
Doncaster
2.9
Hartlepool
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AFC Wimbledon
24.5
Northampton
23.5
Barrow
23.5
Salford
23.4
Mansfield
23.4
Walsall
23.2
Crawley Town
23.1
Crewe
23.0
Bradford
23.0
Sutton
22.9
Grimsby
22.8
Stockport
22.7
Colchester
22.5
Leyton Orient
22.4
Tranmere
21.9
Gillingham
21.8
Stevenage
21.7
Swindon
21.6
Doncaster
21.3
Rochdale
21.1
Newport County
21.1
Hartlepool
21.0
Harrogate
20.8
Carlisle
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.1%
Under 9.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.3%
Under 3.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
54.5%
Under 21.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barrow
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.86
0.36
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.33
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.50
1.20
0.40
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.38
0.56
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (24)
0.46
0.75
0.33
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barrow over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barrow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.79
0.64
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.60
1.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.59
0.70
0.50
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.03
0.19
0.88
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (24)
0.29
0.92
0.20
0.73
0.44
1.22
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barrow over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Barrow · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Gordon26%
Isaac Fletcher23%
Danny Rose19%
Charlie McCann15%
Lewis Shipley12%
Ben Whitfield11%
Tyler Walker9%
Jovan Malcolm8%
Niall Canavan7%
Rekeem Harper6%
Scott Smith3%
Jack Earing3%
Charlie Raglan3%
Connor Mahoney3%
Elliot Newby2%
Ben Jackson2%
Sam Foley0%
David Worrall0%
Kane Hemmings0%
Regan Booty0%
Angus MacDonald0%
Tom Barkhuizen0%
MJ Williams0%
Innes Cameron0%
Benjamin Winterbottom0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Jack Thompson0%
Brandon Powell0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Michael Adu-Poku0%
Freddie Anderson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Freddie Anderson50%
Scott Smith33%
Josh Gordon32%
Jack Thompson30%
Niall Canavan21%
Joseph Anderson21%
Danny Rose19%
Regan Booty18%
Charlie McCann18%
MJ Williams16%
Angus MacDonald15%
Rekeem Harper15%
Kane Hemmings14%
Isaac Fletcher13%
Lewis Shipley12%
Charlie Raglan11%
Elliot Newby10%
Ben Jackson9%
Tom Barkhuizen9%
Wyll Stanway7%
Tyler Walker5%
Ben Whitfield4%
Connor Mahoney3%
Sam Foley0%
David Worrall0%
Jack Earing0%
Innes Cameron0%
Benjamin Winterbottom0%
Jovan Malcolm0%
Brandon Powell0%
Michael Adu-Poku0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ben Whitfield11%
Tom Barkhuizen9%
Angus MacDonald8%
Kane Hemmings7%
Niall Canavan7%
Joseph Anderson7%
Jack Earing6%
Isaac Fletcher6%
Connor Mahoney5%
Elliot Newby5%
Danny Rose5%
MJ Williams4%
Rekeem Harper3%
Charlie McCann3%
Charlie Raglan3%
Tyler Walker0%
Sam Foley0%
David Worrall0%
Regan Booty0%
Josh Gordon0%
Innes Cameron0%
Ben Jackson0%
Benjamin Winterbottom0%
Scott Smith0%
Jovan Malcolm0%
Lewis Shipley0%
Jack Thompson0%
Brandon Powell0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Michael Adu-Poku0%
Freddie Anderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Freddie Anderson25%
Josh Gordon16%
Isaac Fletcher10%
Charlie McCann9%
Danny Rose5%
MJ Williams4%
Scott Smith3%
Rekeem Harper3%
Charlie Raglan3%
Connor Mahoney3%
Tyler Walker0%
Sam Foley0%
Ben Whitfield0%
David Worrall0%
Kane Hemmings0%
Regan Booty0%
Angus MacDonald0%
Tom Barkhuizen0%
Jack Earing0%
Niall Canavan0%
Elliot Newby0%
Innes Cameron0%
Ben Jackson0%
Benjamin Winterbottom0%
Joseph Anderson0%
Jovan Malcolm0%
Lewis Shipley0%
Jack Thompson0%
Brandon Powell0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Michael Adu-Poku0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Barrow's squad is €1m more valuable than Hartlepool's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Barrow and Hartlepool have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Barrow and Hartlepool have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STO (11)
€4m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Barrow and Hartlepool have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Leyton Orient
Stevenage
Northampton
Stockport
Carlisle
Bradford
Salford
Mansfield
Swindon
Grimsby
Tranmere
Crewe
Sutton
Newport County
Walsall
Gillingham
Doncaster
Harrogate
Colchester
AFC Wimbledon
Crawley Town
Rochdale