Başakşehir are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw and 15% for a Kasimpasa victory. The prediction favours a 2-0 win for Başakşehir, the most likely scoreline at 11.4%. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 25%. Başakşehir’s home form shows they average 2.3 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opponents, while Kasimpasa, playing away against a stronger side, averages 0.6 scored and 2.4 conceded. The suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.6% with a 1% edge, Over 19.5 fouls at 94.2%, Home +2 handicap at 94.1% with a 3% edge, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.4% with a 3% edge. Başakşehir’s recent form, coming off a defeat, contrasts with Kasimpasa’s recent win, reinforcing the home side’s advantage.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Başakşehir, fell short as the match ended 1-1, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. Başakşehir’s recent form, a string of one draw and three wins, had them on the cusp of a winning streak, while Kasimpasa, also coming off a draw, had a mixed run of one win and two losses. The model’s selection of a home win carried a 64% probability, yet the result was a draw. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.4%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.0%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.6%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94.1%, Home +2 handicap hit at 94.1%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 93.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Başakşehir win✗ Miss
63.7%
Avg Implied 57.1% · @ 1.64
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Draw✓ Hit
22.3%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.91
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.08
1xBet
4.08
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Kasımpaşa win✗ Miss
14.0%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.97
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.25
Unibet
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Pinnacle
5.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Başakşehir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.17
2.25
1.12
1.57
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.20
1.50
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.62
2.50
2.25
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
2.24
0.65
2.30
0.50
2.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kasımpaşa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kasımpaşa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.50
0.87
1.00
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.80
0.80
1.20
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.35
0.90
0.90
1.30
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
@ 1.22+2.7%
Under 1.5
20.6%
@ 4.02-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.19
Superbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.74+0.9%
Under 2.5
44.7%
@ 2.08-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
SBO
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
@ 2.82-0.2%
Under 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.40+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
Betano
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.1%
@ 1.73-2.6%
No
48.9%
@ 2.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.76
Unibet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
No
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.4%@ 7.77+5.7%
1-1 ✓
10.7%@ 6.96+4.2%
1-0
10.3%@ 6.99+3.9%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.40+3.8%
3-0
7.8%@ 12.05+4.0%
3-1
6.7%@ 11.70+2.9%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.73+2.7%
2-2
4.2%@ 13.81+1.0%
Başakşehir goals ↓
Kasımpaşa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
3.8%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
10%
11%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.8%
6.7%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.9%
3.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Başakşehir goals (down), columns = Kasımpaşa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Amed
1.05
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.96
Çorum FK
0.95
Başakşehir is 0.65 points better than Kasımpaşa in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Galatasaray
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Samsunspor
1.35
Rizespor
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Konyaspor
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Amed
1.03
Eyüpspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Çorum FK
0.93
Kocaelispor
0.76
Başakşehir is 0.74 goals better than Kasımpaşa in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Amed
1.71
Erzurumspor FK
1.88
Çorum FK
1.89
Başakşehir is 0.41 goals better than Kasımpaşa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Başakşehir is 10.0 percentage points better than Kasımpaşa in terms of average possession (54% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Başakşehir
For 4.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kasımpaşa
For 2.9 · Against 5.7 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.3 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Başakşehir
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.5
4.4
4.6
4.2
26.6
27.0
26.3
vs Stronger (9)
11.1
10.8
11.5
4.6
5.5
3.8
23.1
24.2
22.0
vs Similar (14)
9.2
8.8
9.6
4.5
5.0
4.0
26.8
26.5
27.1
vs Weaker (27)
9.7
8.9
10.6
4.4
4.2
4.5
27.7
28.0
27.4
% over line
51%
48%
55%
64%
72%
56%
87%
91%
82%
% under line
49%
52%
45%
36%
28%
44%
13%
9%
18%
This opponent (Kasımpaşa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kasımpaşa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.4
8.4
4.9
4.3
5.5
27.7
28.4
27.0
vs Stronger (18)
9.3
10.5
7.4
5.4
4.9
6.1
27.4
27.9
26.6
vs Similar (32)
8.7
8.5
8.8
4.6
3.9
5.2
27.9
28.9
27.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
40%
30%
68%
65%
71%
90%
92%
87%
% under line
65%
60%
70%
32%
35%
29%
10%
8%
13%
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Beşiktaş
10.3
Samsunspor
9.8
Başakşehir
9.7
Trabzonspor
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Konyaspor
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.5
Göztepe
9.4
Rizespor
9.3
Çorum FK
9.2
Amed
9.0
Eyüpspor
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Kasımpaşa
8.8
Erzurumspor FK
8.5
Kocaelispor
8.3
Alanyaspor
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
5.8
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Çorum FK
5.0
Konyaspor
5.0
Göztepe
5.0
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Başakşehir
5.0
Beşiktaş
5.0
Eyüpspor
5.0
Alanyaspor
4.9
Amed
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.8
Erzurumspor FK
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.7
Samsunspor
4.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.5
Galatasaray
4.5
Rizespor
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Kocaelispor
27.4
Alanyaspor
27.0
Başakşehir
26.9
Göztepe
26.6
Trabzonspor
26.4
Eyüpspor
26.4
Rizespor
26.1
Samsunspor
25.8
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Beşiktaş
25.4
Fenerbahçe
25.1
Konyaspor
24.8
Galatasaray
23.5
Erzurumspor FK
23.5
Çorum FK
23.0
Amed
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
36.7%
@ 1.91-12.0%
Under 9.5
63.3%
@ 1.81+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Under
Superbet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.3%
@ 1.33+6.7%
Under 3.5
24.7%
@ 2.91-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.30
Under
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.87
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.3%
Under 21.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Başakşehir or Draw✓ Hit
83.5%
Avg Implied 80.9% · @ 1.16
Edge
+2.7%
64%
22%
14%
covers Başakşehir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Başakşehir or Kasımpaşa✗ Miss
77.2%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.23
Edge
+0.8%
64%
22%
14%
covers Başakşehir + Kasımpaşa
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.25
Draw or Kasımpaşa✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied 42.7% · @ 2.20
Edge
-3.4%
64%
22%
14%
covers Draw + Kasımpaşa
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.22
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Başakşehir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.9%
@ 1.12+3.9%
Under
13.1%
@ 5.44-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.55
BetVictor
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Başakşehir over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
60.2%
@ 1.67+4.2%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.12-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Unibet
2.12
Başakşehir over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
33.2%
@ 3.08+2.9%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.33-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
BetVictor
3.13
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Başakşehir over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 6.26+0.0%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.09-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Superbet
6.20
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Kasımpaşa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.4%
@ 1.50+0.4%
Under
37.6%
@ 2.45-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Betano
2.47
BetVictor
2.45
Kasımpaşa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.6%
@ 3.46-1.3%
Under
74.4%
@ 1.28+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.76
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Kasımpaşa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 9.50-2.2%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.70
Marathonbet
9.70
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.30
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Kasımpaşa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 23.17-2.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Başakşehir, so a minus line means Başakşehir give that many goals of a start and Kasımpaşa receive them. At -1, Başakşehir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Başakşehir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Başakşehir)Actual: Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir -2
19.0%
@ 5.07+1.4%
Draw -2
18.8%
@ 4.68-0.3%
Kasımpaşa +2
62.1%
@ 1.41-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.50
Away
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Handicap -1 (Başakşehir)Actual: Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir -1
37.9%
@ 2.63+4.0%
Draw -1
22.9%
@ 3.50-2.5%
Kasımpaşa +1
39.2%
@ 2.19-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Betfair
3.40
Away
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
10Bet
2.15
Handicap +1 (Başakşehir)Actual: Başakşehir
Başakşehir +1
83.5%
@ 1.15+6.2%
Draw +1
10.5%
@ 6.26-3.7%
Kasımpaşa -1
5.9%
@ 10.49-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Handicap +2 (Başakşehir)Actual: Başakşehir
Başakşehir +2
94.1%
@ 1.03+2.4%
Draw +2
4.4%
@ 16.00-1.6%
Kasımpaşa -2
1.6%
@ 40.00-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Başakşehir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
1.06
0.44
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
1.25
0.75
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.24
1.10
0.30
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kasımpaşa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kasımpaşa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.47
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.75
0.40
0.30
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.1%
@ 1.32+1.6%
Under 0.5
27.9%
@ 3.16-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 2.52+1.7%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.48-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Marathonbet
2.53
Under
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.7%
@ 6.06-1.6%
Under 2.5
86.3%
@ 1.10+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.95
Under
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Başakşehir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.4%
@ 1.64+2.9%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.14-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Superbet
2.17
Unibet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Başakşehir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.1%
@ 4.11-0.3%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.19+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.33
Betano
4.20
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Başakşehir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 9.83-2.5%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Kasımpaşa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.6%
@ 2.61-1.0%
Under
65.4%
@ 1.45+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
Betano
2.62
Superbet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Under
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.43
Kasımpaşa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 9.44-2.9%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
9.60
1xBet
9.40
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Kasımpaşa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 40.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Başakşehir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.19
0.69
0.71
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.12
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.41
1.20
0.20
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kasımpaşa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kasımpaşa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.40
0.40
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Başakşehir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.0%
@ 1.19+5.0%
Under 0.5
17.0%
@ 4.24-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Under
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.93+3.3%
Under 1.5
48.5%
@ 1.80-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.7%
@ 3.93-0.9%
Under 2.5
77.3%
@ 1.22+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Başakşehir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
68.0%
@ 1.45+3.8%
Under
32.0%
@ 2.59-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Under
Betano
2.62
Superbet
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Başakşehir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.0%
@ 3.08+4.9%
Under
65.0%
@ 1.33-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Başakşehir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 7.53-3.7%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.06+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
7.60
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Kasımpaşa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.0%
@ 2.13-2.6%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.64+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Kasımpaşa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 6.83-3.7%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.07+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
6.90
1xBet
6.90
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Kasımpaşa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 18.50-3.3%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.5%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
83.5%
1.16
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.5%
1.15
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.5%
1.29
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+12.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.4%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.9%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.22
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.2%
1.23
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.25
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.3%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.30
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.6%
1.50
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.51
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
+13.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.4%
1.28
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.32
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Başakşehir
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Eldor Shomurodov100%
Christopher Operi33%
Andreas Skov Olsen0%
Umut Bozok0%
Davie Selke0%
Ömer Ali Şahiner0%
Muhammed Şengezer0%
Onur Ergün0%
Olivier Kemen0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Emin Bayram0%
Abbosbek Fayzullaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Olivier Kemen67%
Davie Selke33%
Ömer Ali Şahiner33%
Onur Ergün33%
Jerome Opoku33%
Abbosbek Fayzullaev33%
Andreas Skov Olsen0%
Christopher Operi0%
Umut Bozok0%
Muhammed Şengezer0%
Eldor Shomurodov0%
Emin Bayram0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andreas Skov Olsen33%
Umut Bozok33%
Abbosbek Fayzullaev33%
Christopher Operi0%
Davie Selke0%
Ömer Ali Şahiner0%
Muhammed Şengezer0%
Eldor Shomurodov0%
Onur Ergün0%
Olivier Kemen0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Emin Bayram0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eldor Shomurodov67%
Andreas Skov Olsen0%
Christopher Operi0%
Umut Bozok0%
Davie Selke0%
Ömer Ali Şahiner0%
Muhammed Şengezer0%
Onur Ergün0%
Olivier Kemen0%
Jerome Opoku0%
Emin Bayram0%
Abbosbek Fayzullaev0%
Kasımpaşa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adrian Benedyczak67%
Fousseni Diabaté33%
Andreas Gianniotis0%
Güven Yalçın0%
Cláudio Winck0%
Andri Fannar Baldursson0%
Matei Ilie0%
Marcus Rafferty0%
Ayberk Karapo0%
Adem Arous0%
Elson Mendes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Cláudio Winck33%
Andri Fannar Baldursson33%
Matei Ilie33%
Ayberk Karapo33%
Andreas Gianniotis0%
Güven Yalçın0%
Adrian Benedyczak0%
Fousseni Diabaté0%
Marcus Rafferty0%
Adem Arous0%
Elson Mendes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Winck33%
Adrian Benedyczak33%
Andreas Gianniotis0%
Güven Yalçın0%
Fousseni Diabaté0%
Andri Fannar Baldursson0%
Matei Ilie0%
Marcus Rafferty0%
Ayberk Karapo0%
Adem Arous0%
Elson Mendes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adrian Benedyczak67%
Cláudio Winck33%
Andreas Gianniotis0%
Güven Yalçın0%
Fousseni Diabaté0%
Andri Fannar Baldursson0%
Matei Ilie0%
Marcus Rafferty0%
Ayberk Karapo0%
Adem Arous0%
Elson Mendes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
Başakşehir's squad is €47m more valuable than Kasımpaşa's (€77m vs €31m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Başakşehir's attack is €26m more valuable than Kasımpaşa's (€40m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
AME (4)
€3m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
Başakşehir's midfield is €5m more valuable than Kasımpaşa's (€10m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
Başakşehir's defence is €16m more valuable than Kasımpaşa's (€28m vs €12m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
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Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
Amed
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor