PythiaFootballBETA
Başkşehir appears to be in a strong position ahead of their matchup against Kocaelispor, given their recent form. The model notes that they're on a 2-game winning run, most recently defeating Gaziantep FK 2-1. This momentum is likely to serve them well at home, where they've been clinical, scoring an average of 2.22 goals per game against weaker opponents.
In contrast, Kocaelispor have struggled on the road, conceding an average of 1 goal per game against stronger opponents. This weakness in their away form could be the key to Başkşehir's favoritism, with the model predicting a 64% chance of a home win. The model's selection is a home win, with the expected total goals standing at 2.8.
The single most likely score is 2-0 in favor of Başkşehir, with a probability of 12.3%. Kocaelispor have struggled to score on the road, averaging just 0.5 goals per game, while Başkşehir have been solid at home, conceding an average of 0.56 goals per game.
The model's suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls (92.4%), Over 1.5 goals (77.4% with a 3% edge), and Under 9.5 corners (70.2%). The probabilities for home win, draw, and away win stand at 64%, 23%, and 13% respectively.
Başkşehir's 2-0 win extends their 3-game winning run, with Kocaelispor struggling after three consecutive defeats. The actual result was a home win, as predicted by the Pythia model, which correctly identified the favourite. The model's call was correct, with a pre-match probability of 65% for the home team to win.
The model's selection, Home win, came in, and the suggested picks also largely landed. Over 21.5 fouls was hit, with a probability of 89.5%, while Over 1.5 goals was also hit, with a 74.5% probability. Under 3.5 goals was correctly predicted, with a 73.3% probability. The most likely total goals was 2, with a 26% probability, and the most likely scores included 2-0 and 1-0.
Başakşehir| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 1.10 | 2.27 | 1.20 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (7) | 2.14 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 2.22 | 0.61 | 2.33 | 0.56 | 2.11 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Kocaelispor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.91 | 0.95 | 1.44 | 0.67 | 0.54 | 1.15 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| Kocaelispor goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13% | 11% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 8.6% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
BaşakşehirKocaelisporBaşakşehir| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 26.7 | 26.9 | 26.4 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 11.1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 23.1 | 24.2 | 22.0 |
| vs Similar (14) | 9.6 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 27.0 | 26.5 | 27.4 |
| vs Weaker (27) | 9.8 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 27.7 | 28.0 | 27.3 |
| % over line | 53% | 45% | 61% | 64% | 71% | 58% | 87% | 91% | 83% |
| % under line | 47% | 55% | 39% | 36% | 29% | 42% | 13% | 9% | 17% |
Kocaelispor| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 27.6 | 25.8 | 29.4 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 7.9 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 27.0 | 25.6 | 28.4 |
| vs Similar (33) | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 29.0 | 27.5 | 30.2 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 10.7 | 8.2 | 15.5 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 25.0 |
| % over line | 31% | 32% | 30% | 56% | 50% | 62% | 87% | 77% | 96% |
| % under line | 69% | 68% | 70% | 44% | 50% | 38% | 13% | 23% | 4% |
Başakşehir| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.33 | 1.07 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.20 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.86 | 0.43 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.17 | 0.22 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 1.22 | 0.11 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Kocaelispor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.67 | 0.22 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Başakşehir| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.77 | 1.20 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.29 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.06 | 0.39 | 1.22 | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
Kocaelispor| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.63 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.45 | 0.64 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 0.23 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 95.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 89.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 84.6% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.21 | - | +11.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 76.0% | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 1.40 | - | +11.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 74.5% | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +2.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.3% | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 31/10/25 | H | 1-0 |
Başakşehir| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Kocaelispor| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.0 | 0% | 2.3 | 33% | 19.0 | 33% | 345 | 173 | 72 | 100 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 62% |
| 2 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 10.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 23.3 | 67% | 15 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 43% |
| 3 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3.3 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 12.7 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.3 | 67% | 202 | 70 | 50 | 82 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 4 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 9.3 | 33% | 1.7 | 0% | 21.7 | 33% | 332 | 162 | 62 | 108 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 59% |
| 5 |  Amed | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 8.3 | 33% | 3.0 | 33% | 25.0 | 100% | 27 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Kocaelispor | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | 8.3 | 67% | 3.7 | 67% | 27.0 | 100% | 24 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 7 |  Rizespor | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 9.0 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 24.7 | 100% | 44 | 12 | 7 | 25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 8 |  Kasımpaşa | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.3 | 67% | 25.0 | 100% | 31 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 44% |
| 9 | Başakşehir | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | 8.0 | 33% | 5.0 | 100% | 27.7 | 100% | 77 | 40 | 10 | 28 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 10 |  Samsunspor | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3.3 | 100% | 33% | 33% | 10.0 | 67% | 2.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 50 | 20 | 12 | 18 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 11 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.7 | 100% | 67% | 0% | 8.7 | 33% | 5.0 | 67% | 28.3 | 100% | 168 | 67 | 38 | 63 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 12 |  Alanyaspor | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 7.0 | 33% | 5.0 | 100% | 33.7 | 100% | 38 | 9 | 18 | 11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 13 |  Gaziantep FK | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.7 | 33% | 31.7 | 100% | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 14 |  Eyüpspor | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 6.3 | 33% | 4.0 | 67% | 35.0 | 100% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 15 |  Göztepe | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 10.7 | 67% | 4.0 | 67% | 21.7 | 33% | 61 | 30 | 19 | 12 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 38% |
| 16 |  Çorum FK | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 10.0 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 20.7 | 33% | 47 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 1.3 | 3.0 | - |
| 17 |  Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 6.3 | 0% | 2.7 | 33% | 23.7 | 100% | 26 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 0.3 | 2.7 | - |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 7.0 | 0% | 4.3 | 67% | 22.7 | 67% | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 52% |