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BATE II vs Minsk II Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
BATE II
BATE II
Vs
44%
25%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Minsk II
Minsk II
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

BATE II hosts Minsk II in the Belarus: 1. Division on August 2, 2026. Recent form suggests a challenging match for BATE II, who have suffered three consecutive defeats, including a 1-2 loss to Bumprom. In contrast, Minsk II is on a five-game winning streak, having beaten Slonim 3-2 in their last match. This trend could lead to a high-scoring game, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and the most likely total being 3 goals. The home side's home form is relatively even, with 1.64 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per match against similar opponents. Minsk II's away form is slightly more aggressive, with 1.86 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per match against similar opponents. The model predicts a home win with a 44% probability, while the draw is 25% likely and an away win is 31% likely. The most likely score is 1-1 with a 10.9% probability. The model's selection is the home win, and other suggested picks include Over 1.5 with an 85.4% probability, and the away win with a 31% probability.

Results analysis

Minsk II pulled off a stunning upset against the odds, defeating BATE II 0-1. This extends their 5-game winning run, with their last 5 matches reading WWWWW. They've been on a tear, with an average of 1.86 goals scored per game and 2.14 conceded. Meanwhile, BATE II's recent form has been a concern, with 3 straight defeats following their last win. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was wrong, as the pre-match favourite did not come through. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also missed, with a probability of 85.4%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BATE II win✗ Miss
44.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minsk II win✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BATE IIBATE II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L01L21W02L40W00D22D04L21W13LH·OST28/09A·MIN04/10H·LID12/10A·LOK19/10H·SLO26/10A·BEL01/11H·DIN10/11A·BUM16/11H·FC 22/11A·OSI24/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.632.081.381.651.82
vs Stronger (3)1.672.332.000.001.503.50
vs Similar (20)1.251.701.601.700.901.70
vs Weaker (7)3.571.144.500.503.201.40
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Minsk II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Minsk IIMinsk II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W10W22D32W32W12L21W70W32W21WA·FC 27/09H·BAT04/10A·NIV12/10H·OSI17/10A·UNI25/10H·ABF31/10A·BAR07/11H·GOM15/11A·VOL22/11H·UNI26/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.231.531.131.671.33
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (18)1.391.501.001.331.781.67
vs Weaker (11)2.000.912.601.001.500.83
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 3.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.2%
No
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
1-0
5.6%
3-1
5.4%
0-0
4.6%
BATE II goals ↓
Minsk II goals →
01234
04.6%4.5%4.1%2.1%0.8%
15.6%11%7.4%3.7%1.4%
25.9%9.0%6.7%3.4%1.3%
33.6%5.4%4.1%2.1%0.8%
41.6%2.5%1.9%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BATE II goals (down), columns = Minsk II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Niva
3.00
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.60
Minsk II
2.40
Osipovichy
2.00
Smorgon
1.80
Lida
1.80
Orsha
1.40
Bumprom
1.33
Volna
1.33
Ostrovets FC
1.20
Uni Minsk
1.20
Slonim
1.20
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.17
FC Slutsk
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.80
Gomel II
0.67
BATE II
0.60
Dinamo Minsk II
0.20
BATE II is 1.80 points worse than Minsk II in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 2.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Niva
2.80
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.40
Volna
2.33
Minsk II
2.20
Lida
2.00
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
Slonim
1.60
Bumprom
1.50
FC Slutsk
1.40
BATE II
1.40
Osipovichy
1.40
Ostrovets FC
1.20
Smorgon
1.20
Orsha
1.20
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.80
Uni Minsk
0.80
Dinamo Minsk II
0.60
BATE II is 0.80 goals worse than Minsk II in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 2.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.40
Uni Minsk
0.60
Osipovichy
0.80
Minsk II
1.00
Smorgon
1.00
Niva
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.20
Bumprom
1.33
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.60
Orsha
1.60
Lida
1.80
Slonim
1.80
Ostrovets FC
2.00
Dinamo Minsk II
2.00
Gomel II
2.17
Volna
2.17
BATE II
2.20
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.67
BATE II is 1.20 goals worse than Minsk II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (32)
€2m
FS (25)
€2m
NIV (24)
€2m
SMO (28)
€2m
BUM (23)
€2m
DMI (36)
€1m
M4 (27)
€1m
VOL (22)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (31)
€1m
LID (24)
€1m
SLO (30)
€1m
BI (28)
€1m
ORS (25)
€1m
OSI (24)
€1m
GI (26)
€1m
BATE II and Minsk II have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BI (0)
€0m
BUM (0)
€0m
DMI (0)
€0m
FS (0)
€0m
GI (0)
€0m
LID (0)
€0m
MI (0)
€0m
M4 (0)
€0m
NIV (0)
€0m
ORS (0)
€0m
OSI (0)
€0m
OF (0)
€0m
SLO (0)
€0m
SMO (0)
€0m
UM (0)
€0m
VOL (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BI (0)
€0m
BUM (0)
€0m
DMI (0)
€0m
FS (0)
€0m
GI (0)
€0m
LID (0)
€0m
MI (0)
€0m
M4 (0)
€0m
NIV (0)
€0m
ORS (0)
€0m
OSI (0)
€0m
OF (0)
€0m
SLO (0)
€0m
SMO (0)
€0m
UM (0)
€0m
VOL (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BI (0)
€0m
BUM (0)
€0m
DMI (0)
€0m
FS (0)
€0m
GI (0)
€0m
LID (0)
€0m
MI (0)
€0m
M4 (0)
€0m
NIV (0)
€0m
ORS (0)
€0m
OSI (0)
€0m
OF (0)
€0m
SLO (0)
€0m
SMO (0)
€0m
UM (0)
€0m
VOL (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

BATE II vs Minsk II · H/A from BI
DateH/AGameScore
04/10/25AMinsk II Vs BI1-0
02/06/25HBI Vs Minsk II3-2

BATE IIBATE II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/26AOsipovichy Vs BI3-1
22/11/25HBI Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev2-1
16/11/25ABumprom Vs BI4-0
10/11/25HBI Vs Dinamo Minsk II2-2
01/11/25ABelshina Vs BI0-0
26/10/25HBI Vs Slonim4-0
19/10/25ALokomotiv Gomel Vs BI2-0
12/10/25HBI Vs Lida2-1
04/10/25AMinsk II Vs BI1-0
28/09/25HBI Vs Ostrovets FC1-3

Minsk IIMinsk II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26HMI Vs Uni Minsk2-1
22/11/25AVolna Vs MI2-3
15/11/25HMI Vs Gomel II7-0
07/11/25ABaranovichi Vs MI1-2
31/10/25HMI Vs ABFF U191-2
25/10/25AUni Minsk Vs MI2-3
17/10/25HMI Vs Osipovichy3-2
12/10/25ANiva Vs MI2-2
04/10/25HMI Vs BATE II1-0
27/09/25AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs MI0-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

BATE II
BATE II
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL1.42
HomeLWWDW1.80
AwayLLDLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%52%28%
AVG goals3.563.723.40
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %68%72%64%
Over 3.5 %50%56%44%
Scored1.802.161.44
Conceded1.761.561.96
BTTS64%64%64%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Minsk II
Minsk II
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.54
HomeWWLWW1.33
AwayWDWWW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%39%53%
AVG goals2.832.673.00
Over 1.5 %69%67%71%
Over 2.5 %51%44%59%
Over 3.5 %31%22%41%
Scored1.461.391.53
Conceded1.371.281.47
BTTS57%50%65%
Clean Sheet26%22%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1NivaNiva515
100%
3.0
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.81.0
-
2Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 4513
80%
2.6
122+10
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.40.4
-
3Minsk IIMinsk II512
80%
2.4
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.21.0
-
4OsipovichyOsipovichy510
60%
2.0
74+3
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.8
-
5LidaLida59
60%
1.8
109+1
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
6SmorgonSmorgon59
60%
1.8
65+1
2.2
100%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.21.0
-
7VolnaVolna68
33%
1.3
1413+1
4.5
83%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.32.2
-
8BumpromBumprom68
33%
1.3
98+1
2.8
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.51.3
-
9OrshaOrsha57
40%
1.4
68-2
2.8
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
10Shakhter SoligorskShakhter Soligorsk67
33%
1.2
1116-5
4.5
83%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.7
-
11Uni MinskUni Minsk56
20%
1.2
43+1
1.4
60%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.80.6
-
12SlonimSlonim56
40%
1.2
89-1
3.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.8
-
13Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC56
40%
1.2
610-4
3.2
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
14FC SlutskFC Slutsk55
20%
1.0
76+1
2.6
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.41.2
-
15FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk54
20%
0.8
48-4
2.4
60%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
16Gomel IIGomel II64
17%
0.7
613-7
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.2
-
17BATE IIBATE II53
20%
0.6
711-4
3.6
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.42.2
-
18Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II51
0%
0.2
310-7
2.6
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.62.0
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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