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BATE II vs Orsha Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 7-2
BATE II
BATE II
Vs
40%
26%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

BATE II’s recent draw against Gomel II and Orsha’s win over Slonim set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model forecasting an average of 3.2 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% chance. Home advantage is evident: BATE II averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Orsha, on the road, nets 2.0 and concedes 1.83. The model’s favourite result is a home win, with probabilities of 40% for BATE II, 26% for a draw, and 35% for Orsha. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, an 83.5% probability. All figures are presented once, with no repetition, and the analysis remains neutral and concise.

Results analysis

The latest fixture saw BATE II extend a modest run, coming off a draw, while Orsha, fresh from a win, struggled to keep pace. The final score was 7-2, a decisive home win that matched the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 40% probability and the model’s call proved correct. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.5% chance, and it hit as the match produced seven goals. All figures are reported once, and the analysis remains neutral, focusing solely on the outcome and the model’s accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BATE II win✓ Hit
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orsha win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BATE IIBATE II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L40W11D30W03L21W31W13L16L06LA·LID20/09H·ORS28/09A·SLO06/10H·ABF10/10A·BUM19/10H·BEL27/10A·TOR03/11H·VOL10/11A·NIV17/11H·ML 23/11
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.571.401.401.071.73
vs Stronger (4)0.752.250.503.501.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.381.541.671.171.081.92
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W04L11D22D24L11D02L20W43W13LH·SHA20/09A·BAT28/09H·LOK05/10A·DIN11/10H·LID19/10A·FC 27/10A·SLO01/11H·ABF08/11A·BUM17/11H·BEL23/11
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.371.381.191.361.57
vs Stronger (17)1.241.291.561.220.881.38
vs Similar (13)1.541.461.141.142.001.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.2%
No
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
5.8%
2-0
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
BATE II goals ↓
Orsha goals →
01234
05.3%5.4%4.9%2.5%1.0%
15.8%12%8.1%4.1%1.6%
25.6%8.6%6.6%3.4%1.3%
33.1%4.7%3.6%1.8%0.7%
41.3%1.9%1.5%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BATE II goals (down), columns = Orsha goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Baranovichi
2.18
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.97
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.88
Belshina
1.85
Lida
1.74
Bumprom
1.74
Niva
1.62
BATE II
1.56
Minsk II
1.50
Ostrovets FC
1.50
Volna
1.41
ABFF U19
1.24
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Uni Minsk
1.06
Gomel II
0.82
Orsha
0.74
Osipovichy
0.64
Slonim
0.61
BATE II is 0.82 points better than Orsha in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 0.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Baranovichi
2.21
Lida
2.18
BATE II
2.06
Niva
2.00
Volna
1.91
Belshina
1.88
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.74
Ostrovets FC
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.65
Bumprom
1.65
Uni Minsk
1.59
Minsk II
1.44
ABFF U19
1.29
Orsha
1.24
Osipovichy
1.18
Gomel II
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
1.00
Slonim
0.91
BATE II is 0.82 goals better than Orsha in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Baranovichi
0.85
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Bumprom
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Belshina
1.18
Lida
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.41
ABFF U19
1.44
BATE II
1.53
Volna
1.62
Niva
1.65
Uni Minsk
2.12
Slonim
2.33
Osipovichy
2.33
Gomel II
2.44
Orsha
2.74
BATE II is 1.21 goals better than Orsha in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 2.74).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BATE IIBATE II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D30W00D11D01L02L02L02LA·LID20/09H·ORS28/09A·SLO06/10H·ABF10/10A·BUM19/10H·BEL27/10A·TOR03/11H·VOL10/11A·NIV17/11H·ML 23/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.600.730.470.53
vs Stronger (4)0.750.750.501.501.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.540.670.670.670.420.67
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L11D12L00D00D10W11D11DH·SHA20/09A·BAT28/09H·LOK05/10A·DIN11/10H·LID19/10A·FC 27/10A·SLO01/11H·ABF08/11A·BUM17/11H·BEL23/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.750.560.500.50
vs Stronger (17)0.530.530.670.560.380.50
vs Similar (13)0.770.540.860.570.670.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BATE II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BATE IIBATE II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L30W11D00D03L10W30W11D14L04LA·LID20/09H·ORS28/09A·SLO06/10H·ABF10/10A·BUM19/10H·BEL27/10A·TOR03/11H·VOL10/11A·NIV17/11H·ML 23/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.930.800.670.601.20
vs Stronger (4)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.830.881.000.500.671.25
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Orsha) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OrshaOrsha

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D03L10W11D12L11D02L10W32W02LH·SHA20/09A·BAT28/09H·LOK05/10A·DIN11/10H·LID19/10A·FC 27/10A·SLO01/11H·ABF08/11A·BUM17/11H·BEL23/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.830.620.620.861.07
vs Stronger (17)0.710.760.890.670.500.88
vs Similar (13)0.770.920.290.571.331.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BATE II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orsha over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (25)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
UM (29)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
BATE II and Orsha have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
BATE II and Orsha have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (6)
€1m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
BAR (4)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
BATE II and Orsha have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (10)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
BATE II and Orsha have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BI wins
1
Draws
0
ORS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BATE II vs Orsha · H/A from BI
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/24HBI Vs Orsha4-0
01/06/24AOrsha Vs BI1-1

BATE IIBATE II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/24HBI Vs ML Vitebsk0-6
17/11/24ANiva Vs BI6-1
10/11/24HBI Vs Volna1-3
03/11/24ATorpedo BelAZ II Vs BI1-3
27/10/24HBI Vs Belshina2-1
19/10/24ABumprom Vs BI3-0
10/10/24HBI Vs ABFF U173-0
06/10/24ASlonim Vs BI1-1
28/09/24HBI Vs Orsha4-0
20/09/24ALida Vs BI2-0

OrshaOrsha

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/24HORS Vs Belshina1-3
17/11/24ABumprom Vs ORS3-4
08/11/24HORS Vs ABFF U172-0
01/11/24ASlonim Vs ORS2-0
27/10/24AFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk Vs ORS1-1
19/10/24HORS Vs Lida2-4
11/10/24ADinamo Minsk II Vs ORS2-2
05/10/24HORS Vs Lokomotiv Gomel1-1
28/09/24ABATE II Vs ORS4-0
20/09/24HORS Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BATE II
BATE II
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.44
HomeWWWLL1.71
AwayLDLWL1.18
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%47%35%
AVG goals2.942.942.94
Over 1.5 %76%71%82%
Over 2.5 %56%53%59%
Over 3.5 %35%35%35%
Scored1.351.531.18
Conceded1.591.411.76
BTTS56%47%65%
Clean Sheet24%35%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Orsha
Orsha
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL1.20
HomeWDLWL1.27
AwayLDDLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%25%
AVG goals3.062.883.25
Over 1.5 %84%77%92%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.401.381.42
Conceded1.661.501.83
BTTS58%54%62%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BaranovichiBaranovichi3474
68%
2.2
7529+46
3.1
85%
56%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3467
59%
2.0
5937+22
2.8
85%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.1
-
3Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3464
53%
1.9
5634+22
2.6
68%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
4BelshinaBelshina3463
56%
1.9
6440+24
3.1
85%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
5LidaLida3459
56%
1.7
7444+30
3.5
85%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0102.21.3
-
6BumpromBumprom3459
47%
1.7
5636+20
2.7
85%
44%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.1
-
7NivaNiva3455
44%
1.6
6856+12
3.6
85%
68%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.01.6
-
8BATE IIBATE II3453
44%
1.6
7052+18
3.6
88%
65%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
9Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3451
47%
1.5
5648+8
3.1
82%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.4
-
10Minsk IIMinsk II3451
44%
1.5
4947+2
2.8
68%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.4
-
11VolnaVolna3448
38%
1.4
6555+10
3.5
91%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.6
-
12ABFF U19ABFF U193442
32%
1.2
4449-5
2.7
76%
56%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
13Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3440
29%
1.2
3440-6
2.2
65%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.01.2
-
14Uni MinskUni Minsk3436
29%
1.1
5472-18
3.7
94%
76%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.62.1
-
15Gomel IIGomel II3428
24%
0.8
3483-49
3.4
79%
68%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.4
-
16OrshaOrsha3425
21%
0.7
4293-51
4.0
94%
79%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.7
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy3321
15%
0.6
3977-38
3.5
97%
70%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.3
-
18SlonimSlonim3320
18%
0.6
3077-47
3.2
91%
70%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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