BATE II, fresh from a 2-2 draw, will look to turn their recent defensive solidity into a win, while Ostrovets FC, riding a two-game winning streak, will aim to keep the pressure on. The model favours a home victory, with a 40% chance of BATE II winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 35% chance of Ostrovets taking the win. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.3% probability. BATE II averages 1.8 goals scored and conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Ostrovets averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.2%), Under 5.5 (89.1%), Over 1.5 (84.3%), Home +2 handicap (82.5%), and Home over 0.5 goals (81.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BATE II win
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC win
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BATE II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.77
2.23
1.62
1.35
1.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.48
1.83
1.80
1.80
1.23
1.85
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
1.50
3.67
1.00
2.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.40
1.73
1.67
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.50
1.67
1.92
1.42
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.80
2.00
0.67
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.3%
Under 1.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
5.6%
2-0
5.5%
0-1
5.2%
0-0
5.0%
BATE II goals ↓
Ostrovets FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
5.2%
4.8%
2.5%
1.0%
1
5.6%
11%
8.1%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.6%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
3
3.1%
4.8%
3.7%
1.9%
0.8%
4
1.3%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BATE II goals (down), columns = Ostrovets FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
BATE II is 0.84 points worse than Ostrovets FC in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
BATE II is 0.09 goals better than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
BATE II is 0.70 goals worse than Ostrovets FC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BATE II or Draw
64.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers BATE II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BATE II or Ostrovets FC
74.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers BATE II + Ostrovets FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ostrovets FC
60.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
25%
35%
covers Draw + Ostrovets FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BATE II over/under 0.5
Over
81.1%
Under
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BATE II, so a minus line means BATE II give that many goals of a start and Ostrovets FC receive them. At -1, BATE II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BATE II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BATE II)
BATE II -2
8.6%
Draw -2
12.1%
Ostrovets FC +2
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BATE II)
BATE II -1
20.7%
Draw -1
18.8%
Ostrovets FC +1
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BATE II)
BATE II +1
64.9%
Draw +1
17.6%
Ostrovets FC -1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BATE II)
BATE II +2
82.4%
Draw +2
10.7%
Ostrovets FC -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BATE II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.85
1.00
0.53
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.96
0.60
1.10
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.67
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.71
0.50
0.92
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BATE II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BATE II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.83
1.38
0.62
0.82
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.87
1.20
0.70
0.85
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ostrovets FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.79
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BATE II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
BATE II and Ostrovets FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
BATE II and Ostrovets FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
BATE II and Ostrovets FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
BATE II and Ostrovets FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Bumprom
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II