BATE II’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 2-1 victory over Orsha set the tone for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting a home win and an expected 4.1 goals. The most likely total is 6+, with a 24% chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for BATE II, at 8.1%. Home form shows an average of 2.0 goals scored and none conceded against stronger opposition, while Shakhter Soligorsk, playing away against weaker teams, averages 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model favours a home victory with a 54% probability, a draw at 20%, and an away win at 26%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (94%), Over 1.5 (92.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (91.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.7%), Home +2 handicap (87.4%), Under 6.5 (87.3%), Away over 0.5 goals (81.7%), and Home or Away (79.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BATE II win
53.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk win
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BATE II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.67
2.21
1.50
1.44
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.77
1.80
1.80
1.33
1.75
vs Weaker (6)
3.00
1.50
3.67
1.00
2.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.73
0.79
1.79
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.57
0.73
1.64
1.08
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.8%
Under 1.5
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
78.8%
Under 2.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
60.2%
Under 3.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
75.8%
No
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.0%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
3-2
5.6%
1-2
5.6%
2-0
4.6%
4-1
4.0%
BATE II goals ↓
Shakhter Soligorsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
2.0%
2.3%
1.3%
0.6%
1
3.1%
7.1%
5.6%
3.2%
1.4%
2
4.6%
8.0%
6.9%
3.9%
1.7%
3
3.8%
6.5%
5.6%
3.2%
1.4%
4
2.3%
4.0%
3.5%
2.0%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BATE II goals (down), columns = Shakhter Soligorsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
BATE II is 0.12 points better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
BATE II is 0.05 goals worse than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
BATE II is 0.75 goals better than Shakhter Soligorsk in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 2.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BATE II or Draw
73.9%
Avg Implied -
53%
20%
26%
covers BATE II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BATE II or Shakhter Soligorsk
79.6%
Avg Implied -
53%
20%
26%
covers BATE II + Shakhter Soligorsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
46.5%
Avg Implied -
53%
20%
26%
covers Draw + Shakhter Soligorsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BATE II over/under 0.5
Over
91.5%
Under
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 3.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BATE II, so a minus line means BATE II give that many goals of a start and Shakhter Soligorsk receive them. At -1, BATE II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BATE II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BATE II)
BATE II -2
18.6%
Draw -2
15.8%
Shakhter Soligorsk +2
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BATE II)
BATE II -1
34.3%
Draw -1
19.1%
Shakhter Soligorsk +1
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BATE II)
BATE II +1
73.9%
Draw +1
13.2%
Shakhter Soligorsk -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BATE II)
BATE II +2
87.1%
Draw +2
7.7%
Shakhter Soligorsk -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BATE II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.79
0.93
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.10
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.83
1.67
0.67
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.29
0.79
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.65
0.18
0.73
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BATE II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BATE II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.43
0.57
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.77
1.20
0.70
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Soligorsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Soligorsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.50
1.00
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.91
0.55
0.91
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BATE II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BATE II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BATE II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Soligorsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →