Bayern Munich are the clear favourite, with a 72% chance of victory, 15% for a draw and 13% for a Stuttgart win. The model picks a home win as the most likely result. Bayern’s recent 5-1 triumph over 1. FC Köln shows they are firing on all cylinders at home, scoring an average of 3.75 goals and conceding only 1.33 against weaker opposition. Stuttgart, on the other hand, averages just one goal scored and three conceded away, and their last outing ended in a 2-2 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. The expected total is 4.7 goals, with the most likely total being 6+ at 33%. The single most probable scoreline is 3-1 for Bayern, with a 7.6% probability. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (96.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.8%), Over 1.5 (95.2%), Under 25.5 fouls (93.9%), Home +2 handicap (92.9%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.4%) and Away under 3.5 goals (91.6%).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Bayern Munich secured a 5-1 victory over VfB Stuttgart, extending their three-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 71% probability and it delivered. The suggested selections performed strongly: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.8%, Over 1.5 at 95.4%, Home +2 handicap at 92.9%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.4% and Away under 3.5 goals at 91.6% all landed. Only Under 25.5 fouls missed, scoring 93.9%. The model’s overall assessment of a high-scoring game was spot on, with the most likely total of 6+ realised in the 6-goal match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bayern München win✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.23
Edge
-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.23
Draw✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied 13.2% · @ 7.19
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
7.80
1xBet
7.60
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
VfB Stuttgart win✗ Miss
14.1%
Avg Implied 9.3% · @ 10.21
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
12.00
Pinnacle
11.27
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.10
BetVictor
10.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bayern München
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.37
1.37
3.53
1.40
3.20
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.67
2.00
2.67
1.67
2.67
2.33
vs Weaker (24)
3.54
1.21
3.75
1.33
3.33
1.08
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfB Stuttgart
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.50
1.81
1.19
2.43
1.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
3.00
0.33
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
2.29
1.05
2.08
0.75
2.56
1.44
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (33%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
95.4%
@ 1.04+3.8%
Under 1.5
4.6%
@ 11.41-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Under
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
1xBet
12.50
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.16+4.4%
Under 2.5
14.9%
@ 4.87-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Under
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.5%
@ 1.46+5.0%
Under 3.5
30.5%
@ 2.65-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.1%
@ 1.43+9.8%
No
24.9%
@ 2.69-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
No
Betfair
2.80
William Hil
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Superbet
2.72
BetVictor
2.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
7.5%@ 9.57+2.5%
2-1
6.9%@ 10.24+2.3%
4-1
6.0%@ 11.13+1.7%
3-2
5.6%@ 15.15+2.5%
2-2
5.2%@ 16.61+2.3%
3-0
5.0%@ 10.88+0.6%
1-1
4.7%@ 16.05+1.8%
2-0
4.6%@ 11.77+0.6%
Bayern München goals ↓
VfB Stuttgart goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.3%
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
1
2.4%
4.7%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
2
4.6%
6.9%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
3
5.0%
7.5%
5.6%
2.8%
1.1%
4
4.0%
6.0%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bayern München goals (down), columns = VfB Stuttgart goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
Bayern München is 0.79 points better than VfB Stuttgart in terms of average points per game (2.62 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Bayern München is 1.50 goals better than VfB Stuttgart in terms of goals scored per game (3.59 vs 2.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
Bayern München is 0.38 goals better than VfB Stuttgart in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Bayern München is 9.8 percentage points better than VfB Stuttgart in terms of average possession (67% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bayern München
For 6.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.3 · Against 9.3 · Total 17.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VfB Stuttgart
For 6.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bayern München
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.2
3.5
3.1
3.9
18.3
16.8
19.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
10.1
9.0
10.8
5.4
6.0
5.0
21.6
20.3
22.4
vs Weaker (42)
9.6
10.4
8.8
3.1
2.7
3.6
17.6
16.3
19.1
% over line
48%
56%
40%
46%
40%
52%
34%
20%
48%
% under line
52%
44%
60%
54%
60%
48%
66%
80%
52%
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfB Stuttgart
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
4.0
3.8
4.2
22.6
23.3
22.0
vs Stronger (6)
8.8
6.0
11.7
5.0
6.3
3.7
19.8
22.0
17.7
vs Similar (32)
10.6
11.5
9.7
3.7
3.4
3.9
23.2
23.6
22.8
vs Weaker (12)
9.0
8.8
9.2
4.3
3.5
5.2
22.7
23.3
22.0
% over line
56%
60%
52%
48%
52%
44%
56%
60%
52%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
52%
48%
56%
44%
40%
48%
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.9
FC Augsburg
9.8
Union Berlin
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
SC Freiburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.4
SV Elversberg
24.1
Hamburger SV
23.8
FC Schalke 04
23.8
SC Freiburg
22.7
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
21.9
FC Augsburg
21.8
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.5
Bayern München
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
@ 1.69+0.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
@ 2.06-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Under
Unibet
2.16
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.6%
@ 2.19+11.9%
Under 3.5
45.4%
@ 1.63-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Under
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
24.4%
@ 2.60-10.9%
Under 21.5
75.6%
@ 1.42+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.42
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bayern München or Draw✓ Hit
84.3%
Avg Implied 90.3% · @ 1.05
Edge
-6.0%
71%
15%
14%
covers Bayern München + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Bayern München or VfB Stuttgart✓ Hit
84.8%
Avg Implied 86.8% · @ 1.10
Edge
-2.0%
71%
15%
14%
covers Bayern München + VfB Stuttgart
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.12
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Draw or VfB Stuttgart✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.16
Edge
+8.0%
71%
15%
14%
covers Draw + VfB Stuttgart
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.32
Unibet
4.20
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bayern München over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
96.2%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Under
3.8%
@ 16.90-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Under
888Sport
21.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
1xBet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Bayern München over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
83.8%
@ 1.14+1.8%
Under
16.2%
@ 5.19-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.16
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
5.50
888Sport
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Superbet
5.25
Bayern München over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
63.6%
@ 1.46-0.2%
Under
36.4%
@ 2.57+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.85
Marathonbet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Bayern München over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
41.4%
@ 2.17-1.6%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.64+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.35
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Under
Marathonbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.64
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.6%
@ 1.38+13.6%
Under
19.4%
@ 2.81-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.02
888Sport
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.8%
@ 2.88+16.4%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.38-16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
1xBet
2.93
Marathonbet
2.93
Unibet
2.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
888Sport
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.7%
@ 7.08+9.6%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.07-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
VfB Stuttgart over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 19.06+3.4%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.01-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bayern München, so a minus line means Bayern München give that many goals of a start and VfB Stuttgart receive them. At -1, Bayern München must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bayern München win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bayern München)Actual: Bayern München
Bayern München -2
33.5%
@ 2.16-8.3%
Draw -2
17.9%
@ 4.41-2.6%
VfB Stuttgart +2
48.6%
@ 2.40+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.35
Handicap -1 (Bayern München)Actual: Bayern München
Bayern München -1
51.4%
@ 1.52-7.9%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 4.67-1.7%
VfB Stuttgart +1
31.0%
@ 4.24+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.90
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Away
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Handicap +1 (Bayern München)Actual: Bayern München
Bayern München +1
84.3%
@ 1.05-3.3%
Draw +1
8.6%
@ 11.88+0.9%
VfB Stuttgart -1
7.1%
@ 19.75+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
15.00
Handicap +2 (Bayern München)Actual: Bayern München
Bayern München +2
92.9%
Draw +2
4.5%
VfB Stuttgart -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bayern München
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.73
1.53
0.73
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.17
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.29
0.62
1.75
0.58
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfB Stuttgart
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
0.94
0.50
1.29
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.52
1.08
0.42
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.2%
@ 1.11-3.4%
Under 0.5
18.8%
@ 6.09+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Under
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.0%
@ 1.62+0.8%
Under 1.5
41.0%
@ 2.25-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
SBO
1.68
1xBet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
27.7%
@ 2.89-4.8%
Under 2.5
72.3%
@ 1.39+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Unibet
2.95
10Bet
2.95
BetVictor
2.90
1xBet
2.89
Under
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
William Hil
1.40
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bayern München over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
71.8%
@ 1.24-3.1%
Under
28.2%
@ 3.70+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Under
Superbet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
10Bet
3.75
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.50
Bayern München over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.6%
@ 2.13-3.0%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.65+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.66
Unibet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bayern München over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 4.59-3.2%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.16+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Betano
4.60
Superbet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.3%
@ 2.34+0.6%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.55-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
Unibet
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 7.88-4.1%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 21.50-3.8%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bayern München
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.63
2.00
0.67
2.33
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.83
0.83
2.00
0.33
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (24)
2.25
0.58
2.00
0.75
2.50
0.42
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (VfB Stuttgart) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfB Stuttgart
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
0.88
0.69
1.14
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.60
0.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.52
1.00
0.33
1.22
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayern München) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
85.9%
@ 1.06-3.5%
Under 0.5
14.1%
@ 8.99+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Under
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
9.20
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.50
William Hil
8.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.4%
@ 1.34-8.4%
Under 1.5
38.6%
@ 3.09+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.16
Unibet
3.15
Superbet
3.15
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
32.8%
@ 2.09-12.3%
Under 2.5
67.2%
@ 1.72+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.15
10Bet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.74
Unibet
1.70
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bayern München over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
76.2%
@ 1.14-4.7%
Under
23.8%
@ 4.83+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Under
Superbet
5.10
Betano
5.00
1xBet
4.40
Bayern München over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
36.3%
@ 1.69-18.5%
Under
63.7%
@ 2.05+18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
1.95
Bayern München over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.1%
@ 3.11-11.8%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.33+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.28
VfB Stuttgart over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.7%
@ 1.93-2.0%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.76+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.65
VfB Stuttgart over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 5.62-3.0%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.11+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
5.80
Superbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
VfB Stuttgart over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 14.88-2.3%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
95.4%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
87.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.04
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.5%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.06
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
85.1%
1.16
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
84.8%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.3%
1.05
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
83.8%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.16
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
83.1%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.33
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.28
-
+11.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
81.2%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.6%
1.38
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
1.17
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
77.5%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
-9.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.14
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
-
-
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
75.6%
1.42
1xBet
1.42
-
-
-
-
+10.9%
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.43
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
1.52
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.45
-
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
72.3%
1.39
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
William Hil
1.40
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home win
70.8%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
10Bet
1.23
-6.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bayern München · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Harry Kane76%
Luis Díaz42%
Michael Olise35%
Nicolas Jackson32%
Serge Gnabry25%
Lennart Karl24%
Raphaël Guerreiro21%
Jamal Musiala21%
Aleksandar Pavlović9%
Leon Goretzka9%
Josip Stanišić7%
Konrad Laimer7%
Jonathan Tah6%
Tom Bischof5%
Dayot Upamecano5%
Alphonso Davies4%
Hiroki Itō4%
Joshua Kimmich4%
Min-jae Kim3%
Manuel Neuer0%
Sacha Boey0%
Jonas Urbig0%
Wisdom Mike0%
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konrad Laimer30%
Michael Olise22%
Jonathan Tah21%
Dayot Upamecano20%
Luis Díaz18%
Joshua Kimmich17%
Aleksandar Pavlović11%
Josip Stanišić10%
Leon Goretzka9%
Manuel Neuer8%
Min-jae Kim8%
Jamal Musiala8%
Tom Bischof8%
Sacha Boey7%
Nicolas Jackson6%
Alphonso Davies4%
Harry Kane4%
Serge Gnabry3%
Lennart Karl3%
Raphaël Guerreiro0%
Hiroki Itō0%
Jonas Urbig0%
Wisdom Mike0%
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Olise39%
Luis Díaz32%
Serge Gnabry28%
Jamal Musiala25%
Joshua Kimmich23%
Alphonso Davies22%
Konrad Laimer22%
Lennart Karl18%
Harry Kane12%
Josip Stanišić12%
Nicolas Jackson9%
Hiroki Itō9%
Leon Goretzka9%
Tom Bischof8%
Dayot Upamecano7%
Raphaël Guerreiro7%
Aleksandar Pavlović5%
Jonathan Tah4%
Min-jae Kim3%
Manuel Neuer0%
Sacha Boey0%
Jonas Urbig0%
Wisdom Mike0%
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Kane50%
Michael Olise41%
Luis Díaz32%
Lennart Karl21%
Nicolas Jackson18%
Serge Gnabry17%
Jamal Musiala8%
Hiroki Itō4%
Leon Goretzka4%
Joshua Kimmich4%
Raphaël Guerreiro4%
Tom Bischof3%
Aleksandar Pavlović2%
Konrad Laimer2%
Manuel Neuer0%
Alphonso Davies0%
Jonathan Tah0%
Dayot Upamecano0%
Sacha Boey0%
Min-jae Kim0%
Josip Stanišić0%
Jonas Urbig0%
Wisdom Mike0%
Bara Sapoko Ndiaye0%
VfB Stuttgart · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Deniz Undav47%
Ermedin Demirović35%
Tiago Tomás21%
Bilal El Khannouss20%
Chris Führich16%
Maximilian Mittelstädt14%
Jamie Leweling14%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Chema Andrés11%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Josha Vagnoman5%
Atakan Karazor5%
Luca Jaquez4%
Angelo Stiller4%
Lorenz Assignon3%
Dan Zagadou0%
Alexander Nübel0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeff Chabot0%
Ramon Hendriks0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Finn Jeltsch0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bilal El Khannouss27%
Jeff Chabot22%
Lorenz Assignon19%
Ermedin Demirović19%
Deniz Undav18%
Lazar Jovanović17%
Atakan Karazor16%
Chema Andrés16%
Finn Jeltsch14%
Tiago Tomás13%
Ameen Al-Dakhil12%
Maximilian Mittelstädt12%
Jamie Leweling12%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Ramon Hendriks10%
Luca Jaquez8%
Chris Führich8%
Josha Vagnoman8%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Angelo Stiller6%
Dan Zagadou0%
Alexander Nübel0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Deniz Undav27%
Jamie Leweling22%
Bilal El Khannouss17%
Chris Führich16%
Angelo Stiller16%
Maximilian Mittelstädt12%
Nikolas Nartey11%
Ermedin Demirović11%
Lorenz Assignon8%
Tiago Tomás8%
Ramon Hendriks6%
Josha Vagnoman5%
Alexander Nübel4%
Luca Jaquez4%
Badredine Bouanani4%
Finn Jeltsch3%
Atakan Karazor2%
Dan Zagadou0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Jeff Chabot0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Chema Andrés0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Deniz Undav56%
Dan Zagadou20%
Ermedin Demirović16%
Chris Führich14%
Jamie Leweling12%
Bilal El Khannouss12%
Tiago Tomás10%
Badredine Bouanani7%
Chema Andrés5%
Maximilian Mittelstädt4%
Nikolas Nartey3%
Josha Vagnoman3%
Jeff Chabot2%
Alexander Nübel0%
Atakan Karazor0%
Fabian Bredlow0%
Ramon Hendriks0%
Angelo Stiller0%
Lorenz Assignon0%
Ameen Al-Dakhil0%
Luca Jaquez0%
Jeremy Arevalo0%
Finn Jeltsch0%
Lazar Jovanović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
Bayern München's squad is €646m more valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€1076m vs €430m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
Bayern München's attack is €360m more valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€554m vs €193m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
Bayern München's midfield is €95m more valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€187m vs €92m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
Bayern München's defence is €191m more valuable than VfB Stuttgart's (€336m vs €145m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04