Be1 NFA are tipped to win the Lithuania 1 Lyga clash against FA Šiauliai II, with a 53% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of an away win. The model expects a modest 2.8 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Home side Be1 NFA have been prolific at home, averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded against weaker opposition, while FA Šiauliai II, playing away against a stronger side, have struggled, netting only 1.29 and conceding 2.29 on average. The model’s selection includes an 78.2% chance of Over 1.5 goals. The recent form storylines are clear: Be1 NFA are on a three-game winning run after a 5-0 demolition of Ekranas, whereas FA Šiauliai II are coming off a 1-2 loss to Minija. The predicted outcome remains a home win, with the overall match shape leaning toward a tight, low-scoring affair.
Results analysis
The win extends Be1 NFA’s three-game winning streak, while FA Šiauliai II return from a defeat. The final score was 2-0, a home win that matched the model’s pick and its 53% probability. The model’s selection was correct. Its single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with a 78.2% chance. All other probabilities are already stated in the data and are not repeated. The match finished with the predicted outcome and the model’s chosen market performed as expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Be1 NFA win✓ Hit
53.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.70
1.44
0.67
1.18
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.73
1.86
0.86
1.38
0.62
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
2.06
0.88
2.12
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
2.30
1.00
2.33
1.29
2.29
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.75
0.67
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.75
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
6% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.5%
2-0 ✓
9.4%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
FA Šiauliai II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
5.2%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.5%
12%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.8%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.6%
5.8%
3.0%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.5%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = FA Šiauliai II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dainava
2.23
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.07
Šiauliai II
2.00
Nevėžis
1.93
Be1 NFA
1.90
Šilas
1.77
Babrungas
1.53
Ekranas
1.37
BFA
1.27
Žalgiris II
1.20
Panevėžys II
1.20
Minija
1.10
Garliava
1.10
Trakai II
1.07
FA Šiauliai II
1.04
Atmosfera
0.80
Banga II
0.67
Be1 NFA is 0.86 points better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dainava
2.30
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.20
BFA
1.80
Babrungas
1.73
Nevėžis
1.73
Šilas
1.70
Ekranas
1.60
Panevėžys II
1.57
Šiauliai II
1.50
Žalgiris II
1.47
Atmosfera
1.37
Trakai II
1.37
Be1 NFA
1.30
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Garliava
1.03
Minija
0.90
Banga II
0.87
Be1 NFA is 0.23 goals better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Šiauliai II
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.63
Nevėžis
0.87
Dainava
1.03
Babrungas
1.13
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.20
Minija
1.30
Šilas
1.37
BFA
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.60
Trakai II
1.60
Garliava
1.67
Ekranas
1.70
FA Šiauliai II
1.89
Panevėžys II
2.10
Banga II
2.23
Atmosfera
2.23
Be1 NFA is 1.26 goals better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.63 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.56
0.44
0.27
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.47
0.71
0.57
0.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.78
0.38
0.88
0.50
0.70
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
0.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
39% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.30
0.89
0.22
0.91
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.27
1.14
0.29
1.12
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
1.28
0.50
1.25
1.00
1.30
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.50
0.67
1.67
0.86
1.43
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
11% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →