The contest is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds are close: 39% for Be1 NFA, 28% for a draw, and 33% for FA Šiauliai II. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is two, with a 13.3% chance of a 1-1 scoreline. Be1 NFA, playing at home against a weaker side, has been prolific, averaging 1.64 goals scored and conceding only 0.64. FA Šiauliai II, on the road against a stronger opponent, has managed 1.6 goals per game while conceding 0.8. The model’s selections highlight a 77.3% probability of Over 1.5 and a 70.2% probability of Under 3.5. Recent form adds nuance: Be1 NFA is on a three-game winning streak after a 5-0 rout, while FA Šiauliai II is coming off a defeat. All figures are presented as percentages, with the single most likely scoreline identified as 1-1.
Results analysis
The match saw Be1 NFA extend their three-game winning run, while FA Šiauliai II returned from a defeat. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Be1 NFA secured a 2-1 victory. The predicted 2-1 scoreline matched the final result, and the most likely total of two goals was achieved. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals came in with a 77.3% probability, and Under 3.5 goals hit with a 70.2% chance. With a pre-match probability of 39% for a home win, the model’s call was accurate, and the other suggested picks performed as forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Be1 NFA win✓ Hit
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II win✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.10
1.40
1.07
1.40
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.62
0.75
2.25
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.55
0.91
1.64
0.64
1.45
1.18
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.73
1.19
1.75
1.29
1.71
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
1.47
1.25
1.75
1.60
0.80
vs Similar (8)
0.62
2.00
0.33
0.67
0.80
2.80
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
2.20
3.00
5.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.0%
Under 2.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.8%
Under 3.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.9%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
5.7%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
FA Šiauliai II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.2%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
1
7.9%
13%
7.9%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.6%
8.7%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = FA Šiauliai II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Be1 NFA is 0.73 points better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Be1 NFA is 0.09 goals better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Be1 NFA is 1.17 goals better than FA Šiauliai II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 2.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.80
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (22)
0.77
0.45
0.91
0.36
0.64
0.55
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.62
0.81
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
0.71
0.58
0.75
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (8)
0.12
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.20
1.40
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.25
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
0.77
0.45
0.73
0.27
0.82
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FA Šiauliai II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FA Šiauliai II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.56
0.94
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
0.76
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.20
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.20
0.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FA Šiauliai II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
TransINVEST Vilnius
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Nevėžis
Minija
Trakai II
Garliava
Ekranas
BFA
Šilas
Kauno Žalgiris II
Panevėžys II
Žalgiris II
Jonava