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Be1 NFA vs Kauno Žalgiris II Result & Analysis

Date: 19/05/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 0-1
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Vs
49%
30%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Be1 NFA win✗ Miss
49.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D22D12L11D20W30W12L21W20W12LH·ŠIL12/11H·MIN11/03A·FA 20/03H·GAR26/03A·PAN02/04H·ŽAL10/04A·EKR14/04H·BFA20/04A·BAB30/04H·ŠIL13/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.771.600.731.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.880.750.751.001.000.50
vs Weaker (22)1.640.771.910.641.360.91
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W11D22D01L14L01L50W02L02LA·JON12/03A·EKR20/03H·TRA25/03A·BFA01/04H·TRA10/04A·BAB14/04H·MIN21/04A·ŠIL30/04H·FA 15/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.221.442.002.000.601.00
vs Stronger (8)1.251.502.002.000.501.00
vs Similar (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %22% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.2%
Under 1.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.6%
Under 3.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.4%
1-1
13.7%
0-0
12.6%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-1 ✓
7.8%
1-2
5.0%
3-0
4.9%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
01234
013%7.8%3.6%1.0%0.2%
114%14%5.0%1.3%0.3%
211%8.6%3.4%0.9%0.2%
34.9%3.9%1.6%0.4%0.1%
41.7%1.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Be1 NFA is 0.76 points better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Be1 NFA is 0.32 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Be1 NFA is 0.60 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D00D01L10W30W10W10W10W01LH·ŠIL12/11H·MIN11/03A·FA 20/03H·GAR26/03A·PAN02/04H·ŽAL10/04A·EKR14/04H·BFA20/04A·BAB30/04H·ŠIL13/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.300.870.330.530.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.500.250.500.250.500.25
vs Weaker (22)0.770.321.000.360.550.27
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D01L13L01L30W01L00DA·JON12/03A·EKR20/03H·TRA25/03A·BFA01/04H·TRA10/04A·BAB14/04H·MIN21/04A·ŠIL30/04H·FA 15/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.891.251.000.000.80
vs Stronger (8)0.620.881.251.000.000.75
vs Similar (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D12L10W10W00D02L11D10W11DH·ŠIL12/11H·MIN11/03A·FA 20/03H·GAR26/03A·PAN02/04H·ŽAL10/04A·EKR14/04H·BFA20/04A·BAB30/04H·ŠIL13/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.730.400.730.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.380.500.250.750.500.25
vs Weaker (22)0.860.450.910.270.820.64
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W11D00D01L00D20W01L02LA·JON12/03A·EKR20/03H·TRA25/03A·BFA01/04H·TRA10/04A·BAB14/04H·MIN21/04A·ŠIL30/04H·FA 15/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.560.751.000.600.20
vs Stronger (8)0.620.620.751.000.500.25
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %56% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
BN wins
0
Draws
0
KŽI wins

Head-to-head

Be1 NFA vs Kauno Žalgiris II · H/A from BN
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/23HBN Vs Šilas1-2
30/04/23ABabrungas Vs BN0-2
20/04/23HBN Vs BFA2-1
14/04/23AEkranas Vs BN2-1
10/04/23HBN Vs Žalgiris II3-0
02/04/23APanevėžys II Vs BN0-2
26/03/23HBN Vs Garliava1-1
20/03/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs BN2-1
11/03/23HBN Vs Minija2-2
12/11/22HBN Vs Šilas1-1

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/23HKŽI Vs FA Šiauliai II0-2
30/04/23AŠilas Vs KŽI2-0
21/04/23HKŽI Vs Minija5-0
14/04/23ABabrungas Vs KŽI1-0
10/04/23HKŽI Vs Trakai II1-4
01/04/23ABFA Vs KŽI1-0
25/03/23HKŽI Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-2
20/03/23AEkranas Vs KŽI1-1
12/03/23AJonava Vs KŽI0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.82
HomeDDWWL2.15
AwayWLWLW1.47
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %49%60%37%
AVG goals2.132.301.95
Over 1.5 %79%80%79%
Over 2.5 %36%45%26%
Over 3.5 %5%10%0%
Scored1.381.551.21
Conceded0.740.750.74
BTTS54%60%47%
Clean Sheet44%40%47%
Corners---
Cards---
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.89
HomeDLWL1.00
AwayWDLLL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%25%20%
AVG goals2.674.001.60
Over 1.5 %78%100%60%
Over 2.5 %33%75%0%
Over 3.5 %33%75%0%
Scored1.222.000.60
Conceded1.442.001.00
BTTS33%50%20%
Clean Sheet22%25%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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