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Be1 NFA vs Tauras Result & Analysis

Date: 22/08/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Vs
24%
27%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tauras
Tauras
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with Tauras expected to edge Be1 NFA. The odds show a 49% chance for Tauras, 27% for a draw and 24% for Be1 NFA. On average the match should see 2.7 goals, with the most likely total being 2, a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% chance. Be1 NFA, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Tauras, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 75.7% probability and Under 3.5 with a 72.2% probability. The home win percentage is 24%, the draw 27%, and the away win 49%. Each of these selections is presented with its exact probability.

Results analysis

The win extends Be1 NFA’s three-game run, while Tauras comes off a draw. The final score was 0-2, an away win that matched the model’s pick. The model had selected an away win with a 49% probability, and it was correct. Over 1.5 goals was chosen with a 75.7% probability and hit, and Under 3.5 goals was selected with a 72.2% probability and also hit. All selections settled as predicted, confirming the model’s accuracy for this match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Be1 NFA win✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tauras win✓ Hit
48.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D21W12L20W11D01L15L12L04L04LH·KAU01/06A·HEG13/06A·PAN17/06A·FA 22/06H·MIN27/06A·ŽAL23/07H·TRA27/07A·JON02/08A·BAB08/08H·NEP15/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.671.171.580.941.72
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.732.091.202.200.332.00
vs Weaker (19)1.211.421.141.141.251.58
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TaurasTauras

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D31W22D21W01L20W40W21W11D31WA·ATM31/05H·EKR14/06A·BFA18/06H·KAU21/06A·HEG27/06A·PAN22/07H·FA 26/07A·MIN02/08H·ŽAL09/08A·TRA16/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.300.732.000.732.600.73
vs Stronger (8)1.501.001.291.003.001.00
vs Similar (12)3.420.422.400.404.140.43
vs Weaker (10)1.600.903.000.671.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.5%
0-2 ✓
9.0%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
1-3
5.1%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
Tauras goals →
01234
08.1%10.0%9.0%4.8%1.9%
16.2%13%9.5%5.1%2.0%
23.9%6.3%5.0%2.7%1.1%
31.4%2.2%1.8%1.0%0.4%
40.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = Tauras goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Be1 NFA is 1.07 points worse than Tauras in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Be1 NFA is 0.70 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.87).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Be1 NFA is 0.97 goals worse than Tauras in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 0.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D10W00D11D01L02L01L02L02LH·KAU01/06A·HEG13/06A·PAN17/06A·FA 22/06H·MIN27/06A·ŽAL23/07H·TRA27/07A·JON02/08A·BAB08/08H·NEP15/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.830.420.830.390.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.181.000.201.200.170.83
vs Weaker (19)0.530.740.570.570.500.83
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TaurasTauras

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L01L01L00D10W30W10W01L30WA·ATM31/05H·EKR14/06A·BFA18/06H·KAU21/06A·HEG27/06A·PAN22/07H·FA 26/07A·MIN02/08H·ŽAL09/08A·TRA16/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.300.880.380.790.21
vs Stronger (9)1.000.330.750.383.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.910.181.000.200.830.17
vs Weaker (10)0.600.401.000.670.430.29
Clean sheet %73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L20W00D00D13L11D02L02LH·KAU01/06A·HEG13/06A·PAN17/06A·FA 22/06H·MIN27/06A·ŽAL23/07H·TRA27/07A·JON02/08A·BAB08/08H·NEP15/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.750.750.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.551.091.001.000.171.17
vs Weaker (19)0.630.790.570.570.670.92
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TaurasTauras

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W21W20W01L10W10W11D10W01LA·ATM31/05H·EKR14/06A·BFA18/06H·KAU21/06A·HEG27/06A·PAN22/07H·FA 26/07A·MIN02/08H·ŽAL09/08A·TRA16/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.471.060.381.070.57
vs Stronger (9)0.440.670.500.620.001.00
vs Similar (11)1.640.271.400.201.830.33
vs Weaker (10)1.000.502.000.000.570.71
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
BN wins
0
Draws
1
TAU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Be1 NFA vs Tauras · H/A from BN
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25ATauras Vs BN1-0
02/11/24ATauras Vs BN0-1
14/06/24HBN Vs Tauras2-1

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/25HBN Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-4
08/08/25ABabrungas Vs BN4-0
02/08/25AJonava Vs BN2-1
27/07/25HBN Vs TransINVEST Vilnius1-5
23/07/25AŽalgiris II Vs BN1-0
27/06/25HBN Vs Minija1-1
22/06/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs BN0-2
17/06/25APanevėžys II Vs BN2-1
13/06/25AHegelmann II Vs BN1-2
01/06/25HBN Vs Kauno Žalgiris II1-1

TaurasTauras

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs TAU1-3
09/08/25HTAU Vs Žalgiris II1-1
02/08/25AMinija Vs TAU1-2
26/07/25HTAU Vs FA Šiauliai II4-0
22/07/25APanevėžys II Vs TAU0-2
27/06/25AHegelmann II Vs TAU1-0
21/06/25HTAU Vs Kauno Žalgiris II2-1
18/06/25ABFA Vs TAU2-2
14/06/25HTAU Vs Ekranas3-1
31/05/25AAtmosfera Vs TAU1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.40
HomeLDDLL1.85
AwayLWLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%54%25%
AVG goals2.662.732.58
Over 1.5 %74%81%67%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %28%31%25%
Scored1.321.650.96
Conceded1.341.081.62
BTTS48%54%42%
Clean Sheet28%35%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Tauras
Tauras
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.90
HomeLWWWD2.08
AwayDLWWW1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%65%46%
AVG goals3.243.083.42
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored2.322.232.42
Conceded0.920.851.00
BTTS48%42%54%
Clean Sheet40%42%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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