PythiaFootballBETA
In this match, Beerschot VA's recent form takes center stage, having suffered two consecutive defeats after a strong start to their recent campaign. They face Lommel United, who are unbeaten in their last five matches. The model predicts a home win for Beerschot VA, with a probability of 44%, closely followed by a draw at 27% and an away win for Lommel United at 30%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The model's most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 12.5%.
At home, Beerschot VA have a strong scoring record, averaging 2.5 goals per match, while conceding just 0.5. In contrast, Lommel United have struggled away from home, scoring an average of 2.22 goals against weaker opponents, while conceding 1.78.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a probability of 79.8%, and Over 21.5 fouls, at 78.6%. Beerschot VA have a 44% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 30% chance of losing to Lommel United.
Beerschot VA's win extends their run, but it was a closely contested match. The final score was 2-1 in their favour, confirming the actual result. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 44%. This was a justified call, as the model's selection largely held up. The suggested picks also performed well, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting at 79.8% probability. The model's other selections included '2-1' as the most likely score, at 9.2% probability, and a most likely total of 2 goals, at 24% probability.
Beerschot VA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 0.97 | 1.53 | 0.93 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.80 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.45 | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.00 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Lommel United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.37 | 1.81 | 1.25 | 1.86 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 2.14 | 1.48 | 2.09 | 1.18 | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Lommel United goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.7% | 13% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Beerschot VALommel UnitedBeerschot VA| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 24.3 | 23.2 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 10.9 | 11.7 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 23.0 | 23.6 | 22.5 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 24.1 | 22.5 | 25.5 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 29.2 | 25.5 | 31.7 |
| % over line | 59% | 65% | 54% | 64% | 56% | 72% | 61% | 55% | 67% |
| % under line | 41% | 35% | 46% | 36% | 44% | 28% | 39% | 45% | 33% |
Lommel United| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 24.9 | 25.1 | 24.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 25.5 | 25.8 | 25.2 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 24.4 | 24.6 | 24.2 |
| % over line | 41% | 43% | 40% | 48% | 54% | 42% | 76% | 86% | 65% |
| % under line | 59% | 57% | 60% | 52% | 46% | 58% | 24% | 14% | 35% |
Beerschot VA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.23 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.65 | 0.25 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+56pp vs league) | |||||
Lommel United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 0.56 | 0.79 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.10 | 0.71 | 1.18 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Beerschot VA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.40 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 0.60 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Lommel United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.05 | 0.76 | 0.91 | 0.55 | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 88.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 78.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/02/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/10/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/11/22 | A | 1-3 | |
| 09/09/22 | H | 0-2 |
Beerschot VA| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/02/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 01/02/26 | A | 1-2 |
Lommel United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  SK Beveren | 32 | 88 | 88% | 2.8 | 74 | 23 | +51 | 3.0 | 84% | 62% | 31% | 10.0 | 55% | 3.8 | 55% | 22.4 | 45% | 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 |  Kortrijk | 31 | 64 | 65% | 2.1 | 56 | 33 | +23 | 2.9 | 74% | 48% | 39% | 11.1 | 67% | 4.0 | 57% | 26.7 | 81% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 3 | Beerschot VA | 32 | 64 | 59% | 2.0 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 9.6 | 52% | 5.1 | 88% | 27.2 | 76% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 4 | Lommel United | 32 | 53 | 47% | 1.7 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 3.3 | 84% | 59% | 41% | 9.9 | 43% | 3.9 | 57% | 24.7 | 70% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 55% |
| 5 |  Liège | 32 | 53 | 50% | 1.7 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 2.6 | 81% | 44% | 22% | 9.5 | 39% | 4.0 | 65% | 24.7 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 6 |  Patro Eisden | 32 | 51 | 44% | 1.6 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 2.6 | 75% | 47% | 25% | 8.3 | 27% | 6.0 | 85% | 29.4 | 85% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 38% |
| 7 |  AS Eupen | 32 | 47 | 38% | 1.5 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 2.5 | 66% | 47% | 25% | 10.0 | 52% | 4.0 | 50% | 25.7 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 51% |
| 8 |  Lokeren-Temse | 32 | 42 | 31% | 1.3 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 2.9 | 78% | 53% | 38% | 11.4 | 62% | 5.4 | 75% | 29.2 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 9 |  KAA Gent II | 32 | 41 | 38% | 1.3 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 2.9 | 84% | 56% | 38% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 61% | 26.3 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 10 |  K. Lierse S.K. | 32 | 38 | 31% | 1.2 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 2.4 | 62% | 41% | 19% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.2 | 79% | 27.6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  RWDM | 32 | 36 | 28% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.2 | 84% | 59% | 47% | 8.2 | 24% | 4.3 | 62% | 25.6 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 12 |  Seraing United | 31 | 35 | 26% | 1.1 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 35% | 8.1 | 36% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.1 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 41% |
| 13 |  Francs Borains | 32 | 35 | 28% | 1.1 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 2.5 | 72% | 41% | 34% | 10.3 | 58% | 4.7 | 65% | 25.8 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 14 |  RSC Anderlecht II | 32 | 31 | 22% | 1.0 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.2 | 78% | 62% | 44% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 50% | 29.0 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 52% |
| 15 |  KRC Genk II | 32 | 31 | 22% | 1.0 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 3.2 | 84% | 62% | 41% | 9.9 | 76% | 3.6 | 62% | 25.4 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 52% |
| 16 |  Club Brugge II | 32 | 21 | 16% | 0.7 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 2.8 | 75% | 56% | 31% | 8.8 | 33% | 4.1 | 60% | 28.2 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 56% |
| 17 |  Olympic Charleroi | 32 | 16 | 9% | 0.5 | 26 | 68 | -42 | 2.9 | 78% | 59% | 31% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.0 | 55% | 24.4 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 48% |