This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mafra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.37
1.44
1.25
1.29
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.56
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.40
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.29
1.58
1.50
1.44
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
8.8%
0-2
8.5%
0-0
6.9%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
5.6%
2-2 ✓
5.5%
Belenenses goals ↓
Mafra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
8.8%
8.5%
4.9%
2.1%
1
5.4%
12%
9.7%
5.6%
2.4%
2
3.7%
6.4%
5.5%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.4%
2.4%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Belenenses goals (down), columns = Mafra goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Belenenses is 0.38 points worse than Mafra in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Belenenses is 0.19 goals worse than Mafra in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Belenenses is 0.25 goals worse than Mafra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Belenenses is 6.9 percentage points worse than Mafra in terms of average possession (46% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Belenenses
For 5.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 14.3 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mafra
For 4.0 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 10.6 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Belenenses
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.5
9.5
5.5
5.9
5.0
30.8
31.3
30.3
vs Stronger (27)
9.2
9.3
9.2
5.9
6.2
5.6
30.6
30.1
31.1
vs Similar (23)
10.9
11.5
10.0
5.0
5.7
4.2
31.1
32.4
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
57%
42%
78%
84%
72%
98%
95%
100%
% under line
50%
43%
58%
22%
16%
28%
2%
5%
0%
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mafra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
9.4
9.0
9.9
3.5
3.2
3.8
26.7
26.9
26.5
vs Stronger (9)
8.8
5.7
13.5
3.0
3.2
2.8
20.5
20.5
20.5
vs Similar (22)
9.6
10.2
9.0
3.7
3.2
4.3
28.2
28.5
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
27%
50%
52%
50%
53%
75%
80%
70%
% under line
62%
73%
50%
48%
50%
47%
25%
20%
30%
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Leixoes
11.6
Nacional
11.4
Estrela
11.4
Academico Viseu
11.2
FC Porto B
10.9
Oliveirense
10.8
Farense
10.7
SC Covilha
10.7
Benfica B
10.7
Vilafranquense
10.5
Penafiel
10.5
Trofense
10.4
Feirense
10.0
Moreirense
10.0
Belenenses
9.9
Tondela
9.5
Mafra
9.4
Torreense
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Oliveirense
7.2
Trofense
7.1
Leixoes
6.6
Belenenses
6.5
Tondela
6.5
Academico Viseu
6.4
Farense
6.2
Estrela
6.1
FC Porto B
6.1
Moreirense
6.1
Torreense
6.0
SC Covilha
5.6
Vilafranquense
5.6
Benfica B
5.6
Nacional
5.5
Penafiel
5.3
Mafra
5.2
Feirense
5.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
33.9
Farense
32.9
Oliveirense
32.3
Trofense
32.1
Penafiel
31.2
Nacional
30.6
Belenenses
30.5
Vilafranquense
30.2
Tondela
29.9
Torreense
28.6
Estrela
28.6
Leixoes
28.6
Moreirense
28.3
FC Porto B
28.2
SC Covilha
28.2
Academico Viseu
27.1
Mafra
26.7
Benfica B
26.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.6%
Under 9.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.4%
Under 3.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.7%
Under 21.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Belenenses
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.47
0.73
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.93
0.71
0.86
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.50
0.25
0.62
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mafra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.44
0.94
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.78
0.50
0.50
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.81
0.42
1.08
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Belenenses over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Belenenses
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.53
1.20
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.29
0.57
1.71
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.81
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mafra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
1.00
0.31
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.50
0.00
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.48
1.17
0.42
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Belenenses over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mafra · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rodrigo Matos33%
Pontus Texel25%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Guilherme0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Friday Etim0%
Beni Junior0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme40%
Rodrigo Freitas33%
Martin Fraisl25%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Yacouba Maiga25%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Rodrigo Matos0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Friday Etim0%
Beni Junior0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Friday Etim33%
Bryan Passi25%
Vítor Gonçalves25%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Guilherme0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Rodrigo Matos0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Beni Junior0%
Stanley Iheanacho0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rodrigo Matos33%
Friday Etim33%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Guilherme20%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Beni Junior0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
Farense
Estrela
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Feirense
Vilafranquense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Tondela
Leixoes
Penafiel
Nacional
Benfica B
Trofense
SC Covilha
Vilaverdense