This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
2.00
1.20
1.27
1.27
2.73
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
2.25
1.00
1.71
1.00
2.67
vs Similar (14)
1.50
1.71
1.38
0.88
1.67
2.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.2%
Under 2.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
3-1
5.9%
0-0 ✓
4.8%
Belenenses goals ↓
Setubal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
4.3%
3.6%
1.6%
0.6%
1
6.3%
11%
6.8%
3.1%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.3%
5.9%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.0%
2.8%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Belenenses goals (down), columns = Setubal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Belenenses is 0.21 points better than Setubal in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Belenenses is 0.41 goals better than Setubal in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Belenenses is 0.35 goals worse than Setubal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Belenenses
For 3.6 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 15.1 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
S
Setubal
For 5.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 20.8 · Total 37.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Belenenses
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.6
8.7
3.6
3.8
3.3
31.6
31.7
31.6
vs Stronger (27)
9.6
9.9
9.3
3.2
4.2
2.2
30.5
29.3
31.7
vs Similar (23)
9.6
11.2
8.2
4.0
3.3
4.7
32.7
34.0
31.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
61%
32%
54%
56%
52%
95%
94%
95%
% under line
54%
39%
68%
46%
44%
48%
5%
6%
5%
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.7
9.1
3.8
4.0
3.7
36.3
35.8
36.8
vs Stronger (27)
9.8
10.3
9.3
3.7
3.8
3.6
36.9
35.6
38.2
vs Similar (23)
9.0
9.1
8.9
4.0
4.2
3.8
35.6
36.1
35.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
58%
44%
56%
60%
52%
97%
95%
100%
% under line
49%
42%
56%
44%
40%
48%
3%
5%
0%
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benfica
11.2
Sporting CP
11.2
Chaves
11.1
Feirense
10.9
Tondela
10.8
SC Braga
10.4
FC Porto
10.3
Moreirense
10.3
Boavista
10.2
Guimaraes
10.2
Santa Clara
10.0
Aves
10.0
Portimonense
9.9
Belenenses
9.6
Rio Ave
9.6
Maritimo
9.4
Setubal
9.4
Nacional
7.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nacional
6.3
Feirense
5.6
Rio Ave
5.6
Moreirense
5.3
Boavista
5.2
Setubal
5.2
Sporting CP
5.0
Belenenses
4.8
Tondela
4.8
FC Porto
4.8
SC Braga
4.8
Maritimo
4.7
Chaves
4.7
Aves
4.6
Portimonense
4.5
Benfica
4.5
Guimaraes
4.4
Santa Clara
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
36.3
Feirense
35.4
Nacional
34.3
Rio Ave
33.8
Boavista
32.5
Guimaraes
32.4
Sporting CP
32.0
Aves
31.7
Moreirense
31.7
Portimonense
31.7
Belenenses
31.6
SC Braga
31.6
Tondela
31.5
Maritimo
31.5
FC Porto
31.0
Chaves
30.7
Benfica
29.3
Santa Clara
27.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.9%
Under 9.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
77.1%
Under 3.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.6%
Under 21.5
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Belenenses
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.67
0.47
0.87
0.07
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.60
0.50
0.62
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.20
0.73
0.43
1.14
0.00
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.33
0.60
0.53
1.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
1.12
0.29
0.86
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.36
1.00
0.38
0.38
0.33
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Belenenses over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Belenenses
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.93
0.53
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
0.80
1.12
0.75
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.47
0.71
0.29
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.87
0.67
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
1.12
0.71
0.86
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.71
1.00
0.50
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Belenenses) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Belenenses over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belenenses over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Belenenses
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Boavista
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
Feirense