Beltinci enter the match on a shaky patch, having lost their opening game before winning their next two, yet the Pythia model still rates them as the clear favourite. Their home form against weaker opponents shows an average of 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Bilje’s away record against stronger teams is far poorer, with only 1.2 goals scored and 3.8 conceded. This disparity explains the 68% probability of a home win, the 19% chance of a draw and the 13% chance of an away victory. The model’s pick is a home win, and it also predicts an average of 3.4 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Beltinci, carrying a 9.8% probability. Suggested selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 97.7%, Home +2 handicap at 95.5%, Under 6.5 at 94.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.2%, Home or Draw at 87.4% and Home +1 handicap also at 87.4%.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Beltinci win
68.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bilje win
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Beltinci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.83
2.27
0.87
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.90
0.67
2.25
0.67
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
1.22
2.33
1.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.00
0.93
1.00
2.60
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.67
0.75
1.25
1.20
3.80
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.50
0.89
0.89
0.78
2.11
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.2%
Under 2.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.4%
Under 3.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.7%
3-0
7.9%
3-1
7.8%
1-0
7.2%
4-0
4.8%
4-1
4.7%
Beltinci goals ↓
Bilje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
2.5%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
1
7.2%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
2
9.8%
9.6%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.9%
7.8%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.8%
4.7%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Beltinci goals (down), columns = Bilje goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Beltinci is 0.87 points better than Bilje in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Beltinci is 0.93 goals better than Bilje in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Beltinci is 0.73 goals better than Bilje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Beltinci or Draw
87.4%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Beltinci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beltinci or Bilje
81.1%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Beltinci + Bilje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bilje
31.5%
Avg Implied -
68%
19%
13%
covers Draw + Bilje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Beltinci over/under 0.5
Over
91.2%
Under
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 3.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5
Over
62.5%
Under
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Beltinci, so a minus line means Beltinci give that many goals of a start and Bilje receive them. At -1, Beltinci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Beltinci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Beltinci)
Beltinci -2
26.8%
Draw -2
20.2%
Bilje +2
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Beltinci)
Beltinci -1
47.0%
Draw -1
21.4%
Bilje +1
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Beltinci)
Beltinci +1
87.4%
Draw +1
8.2%
Bilje -1
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Beltinci)
Beltinci +2
95.5%
Draw +2
3.3%
Bilje -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Beltinci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.13
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.29
1.17
0.42
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.33
0.40
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Beltinci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.13
0.33
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.38
1.08
0.25
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.33
0.67
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.67
0.53
0.40
1.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.44
0.50
0.50
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.94
0.56
0.56
0.22
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Beltinci and Bilje have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Beltinci and Bilje have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Beltinci and Bilje have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Beltinci and Bilje have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja