Beltinci are tipped to win at home, with a 57% chance of victory, a 25% draw probability and an 18% chance for Krka to come away with a win. The match is expected to produce 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 11.8% chance. Beltinci, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, have averaged 2.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded, while Krka, on the road, have managed 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home +2 handicap (93.3%), Under 5.5 (93.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.3%) and Under 4.5 (84.4%). Beltinci entered the game after a win, having beaten Primorje 4-0, while Krka are still recovering from two consecutive defeats, having lost 2-3 to Slovan Ljubljana.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Beltinci win
58.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Krka win
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Beltinci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.83
2.27
0.87
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.90
0.67
2.25
0.67
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
1.22
2.33
1.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
0.93
1.80
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.86
0.50
2.50
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.71
0.90
1.50
1.09
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.9%
Under 2.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.5%
Under 3.5
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.9%
1-0
9.1%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
6.4%
0-0
6.2%
1-2
5.1%
Beltinci goals ↓
Krka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.2%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.1%
11%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.9%
10.0%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.1%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Beltinci goals (down), columns = Krka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Beltinci is 1.03 points better than Krka in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Beltinci is 0.77 goals better than Krka in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Beltinci is 0.87 goals better than Krka in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Beltinci or Draw
82.0%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
18%
covers Beltinci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beltinci or Krka
76.4%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
18%
covers Beltinci + Krka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Krka
41.6%
Avg Implied -
58%
24%
18%
covers Draw + Krka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Beltinci over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Beltinci, so a minus line means Beltinci give that many goals of a start and Krka receive them. At -1, Beltinci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Beltinci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Beltinci)
Beltinci -2
17.3%
Draw -2
18.2%
Krka +2
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Beltinci)
Beltinci -1
35.5%
Draw -1
22.9%
Krka +1
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Beltinci)
Beltinci +1
82.0%
Draw +1
11.3%
Krka -1
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Beltinci)
Beltinci +2
93.4%
Draw +2
4.8%
Krka -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Beltinci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.13
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.29
1.17
0.42
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.57
0.60
0.70
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Beltinci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.13
0.33
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.38
1.08
0.25
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.33
0.67
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.33
1.00
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.00
1.75
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.33
1.14
0.30
0.80
0.36
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Beltinci and Krka have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Beltinci and Krka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Beltinci and Krka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Beltinci and Krka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Brežice
Dravinja