Beltinci arrive at home after a 4-0 triumph over Primorje, their recent form a clear indicator that they will dominate the pitch. The model rates a home win at 72 %, the highest probability in the spread, and the favourite result is a home victory. This confidence stems from Beltinci’s strong home scoring average of 2.33 goals per game and a low concession rate of 0.89 against weaker opposition, while Krško’s away form is poor, with only 0.57 goals scored and 3.14 conceded to stronger teams. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, but the most likely total is 2, with a 23 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 12.6 % probability. The model’s suggested picks include a 99.3 % chance of Away under 3.5 goals, 98.7 % for Under 7.5, 97.2 % for Home +2 handicap, 96.3 % for Under 6.5, 96.0 % for Away under 2.5 goals, 91.0 % for Under 5.5, 90.5 % for Home or Draw, and 90.5 % for Home +1 handicap. The home win probability is 72 %, the draw 19 %, and the away win 9 %.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Beltinci win
71.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Krško win
9.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Beltinci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.83
2.27
0.87
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.90
0.67
2.25
0.67
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
1.22
2.33
1.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krško
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.07
0.80
1.87
0.67
2.27
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
2.80
0.88
2.50
0.57
3.14
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.33
0.71
1.14
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.6%
1-0
10.0%
3-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
7.2%
4-0
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
Beltinci goals ↓
Krško goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
2.7%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
10%
8.9%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.7%
7.2%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
5.6%
4.2%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Beltinci goals (down), columns = Krško goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Beltinci is 1.13 points better than Krško in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Beltinci is 1.03 goals better than Krško in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Beltinci is 1.23 goals better than Krško in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Beltinci or Draw
90.5%
Avg Implied -
72%
19%
9%
covers Beltinci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beltinci or Krško
81.4%
Avg Implied -
72%
19%
9%
covers Beltinci + Krško
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Krško
28.1%
Avg Implied -
72%
19%
9%
covers Draw + Krško
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Beltinci over/under 0.5
Over
90.2%
Under
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 3.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 0.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Beltinci, so a minus line means Beltinci give that many goals of a start and Krško receive them. At -1, Beltinci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Beltinci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Beltinci)
Beltinci -2
27.9%
Draw -2
21.6%
Krško +2
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Beltinci)
Beltinci -1
49.4%
Draw -1
22.5%
Krško +1
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Beltinci)
Beltinci +1
90.5%
Draw +1
6.7%
Krško -1
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Beltinci)
Beltinci +2
97.2%
Draw +2
2.2%
Krško -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Beltinci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.13
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.29
1.17
0.42
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krško
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.07
0.62
1.12
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.20
0.67
0.29
0.43
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.6%
Under 0.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.0%
Under 1.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
Under 2.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 0.5 HT
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Beltinci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.13
0.33
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.38
1.08
0.25
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.33
0.67
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krško
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.20
0.33
1.07
0.47
1.33
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.73
0.25
1.38
0.29
2.14
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.67
0.43
0.71
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.1%
Under 0.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.7%
Under 1.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.7%
Under 2.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
40.0%
Under
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 0.5 2H
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Beltinci's squad is €1m more valuable than Krško's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Beltinci and Krško have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Beltinci and Krško have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Beltinci and Krško have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja