In this Slovenia 2nd SNL match between Beltinci and Rudar, the favourite to win is Beltinci, with a recent-form storyline that includes a 2-game winning run, including a 2-0 victory over Rudar. Beltinci is likely to dominate at home, scoring 2.09 goals on average while conceding just 0.91.
The overall shape of the match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.8 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability. Rudar, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 0.33 goals on average while conceding 2.67.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 50% probability. The draw is a 27% possibility, while an away win is 24% likely. The model also suggests "Over 1.5" as its selection, with a 77.7% probability and an edge of 5%. This selection has been a hit. The home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 24%.
Results analysis
The win extends Beltinci's run of two consecutive victories, with a 2-0 result against Rudar. The model's selection of a Home win was correct, given the pre-match probability of 50%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 77.7%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 25%. The most likely scores were 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the model's call, as the actual result was a Home win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Beltinci win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied 57.6% · @ 1.57
Edge
-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.64
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
Dafabet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.73
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
Betano
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Rudar win✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied 18.2% · @ 4.97
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.53
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
William Hil
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Beltinci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.83
2.00
1.07
1.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.82
0.91
2.09
1.00
1.55
0.82
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
1.75
1.25
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.30
1.80
1.00
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
2.12
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (20)
1.70
0.95
2.20
0.60
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
@ 1.25+4.6%
Under 1.5
22.3%
@ 3.38-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.45
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 1.84+2.2%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 1.86-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Betfair
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Under
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
@ 2.98-0.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
@ 1.31+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
@ 1.87+6.6%
No
44.5%
@ 1.79-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.85
No
Betfair
1.85
Superbet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.80+6.5%
2-1
9.6%@ 7.40+4.0%
1-0
9.3%@ 6.25+2.6%
2-0 ✓
8.7%@ 6.85+2.6%
0-0
7.4%@ 10.00+3.2%
1-2
6.3%@ 15.00+3.6%
0-1
5.7%@ 13.20+2.5%
3-1
5.4%@ 11.80+1.8%
Beltinci goals ↓
Rudar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
5.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.3%
13%
6.3%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.6%
5.3%
2.0%
0.5%
3
4.9%
5.4%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Beltinci goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Beltinci is 0.77 points better than Rudar in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Beltinci is 0.30 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Beltinci is 0.47 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Beltinci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.93
0.67
0.80
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.41
1.00
0.64
0.82
0.18
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
1.00
1.25
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.35
0.90
0.40
1.00
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Beltinci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.07
0.40
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.50
1.09
0.36
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rudar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.93
0.40
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
0.00
0.75
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.60
1.30
0.20
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.7%
1.25
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+4.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Beltinci and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Beltinci and Rudar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Beltinci and Rudar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Beltinci and Rudar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja