Beltinci are tipped to edge Tabor Sežana in a match that the model sees as a 56% chance of a home win, a 25% draw and a 19% away victory. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a lively affair, with the most probable total of two goals at 24%. The single score the model favours is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 11.7% probability. Beltinci have been scoring 1.69 goals and conceding 1.08 at home against teams of similar strength, while Tabor Sežana have managed only 0.92 goals and allowed 1.5 when away. The model’s selection list includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 79.3%. The home side’s win probability is 56%, the draw 25% and the away win 19%. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, is the only one to be highlighted. This preview is built solely on the data provided, with no extra speculation.
Results analysis
Beltinci’s recent form, a string of two wins after a loss, set the stage for a home victory that the model predicted correctly. The Pythia forecast of a home win at 56% probability proved right as Beltinci triumphed 2-0, matching the actual result. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals with a 79.3% chance, also hit, confirming the expected total of 2 goals. Tabor Sežana, riding a five-game winning streak away, fell short, and the predicted 2-0 scoreline matched the most likely outcome. Overall, the favoured result and the key selection both materialised, underscoring the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Beltinci win✓ Hit
55.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana win✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Beltinci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.03
1.73
1.07
1.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.63
1.04
1.69
1.08
1.57
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tabor Sežana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.80
0.93
2.27
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.96
2.00
1.00
2.46
0.92
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.9%
Under 2.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0 ✓
9.7%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.1%
3-0
6.0%
1-2
5.4%
Beltinci goals ↓
Tabor Sežana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
4.7%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
1
9.4%
12%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.9%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.0%
6.1%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.8%
2.8%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Beltinci goals (down), columns = Tabor Sežana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Beltinci is 0.87 points better than Tabor Sežana in terms of average points per game (1.87 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Beltinci is 0.37 goals better than Tabor Sežana in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Beltinci is 1.17 goals better than Tabor Sežana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Beltinci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.47
0.93
0.67
1.07
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.48
0.85
0.69
1.00
0.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tabor Sežana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.40
1.07
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.96
0.46
1.15
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Beltinci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.80
0.40
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.56
0.85
0.38
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tabor Sežana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tabor Sežana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.53
1.20
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.52
1.04
0.54
1.31
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tabor Sežana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
Beltinci and Tabor Sežana have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Beltinci and Tabor Sežana have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Beltinci and Tabor Sežana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Beltinci and Tabor Sežana have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Primorje
Nafta
Gorica
Brinje-Grosuplje
Triglav
Bistrica
Rudar
Dekani
Bilje
Tolmin
Dravinja
Krka
Ilirija
Fužinar