This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.17
1.17
0.83
0.83
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%
1-0
12.5%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
8.2%
0-0
8.0%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.2%
Benfica B goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
4.2%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
1
12%
11%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
8.2%
6.1%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.9%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benfica B goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Benfica B is 0.03 points worse than Penafiel in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Benfica B is 0.47 goals better than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Benfica B is 0.32 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Benfica B is 2.0 percentage points better than Penafiel in terms of average possession (52% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benfica B
For 4.7 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.0 · Against 1.3 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 7.3 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 18.3 · Total 34.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
10.7
9.0
11.5
1.6
1.0
2.2
23.0
20.0
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
9.0
9.0
-
1.5
2.0
0.0
20.0
20.0
-
vs Weaker (8)
11.5
-
11.5
1.6
0.0
2.6
24.5
-
24.5
% over line
33%
0%
50%
25%
17%
33%
33%
0%
50%
% under line
67%
100%
50%
75%
83%
67%
67%
100%
50%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
11.0
13.0
7.0
1.4
1.8
1.0
34.3
33.5
36.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
11.0
13.0
7.0
1.7
2.2
1.2
34.3
33.5
36.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
100%
0%
25%
33%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
33%
0%
100%
75%
67%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Benfica B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estrela
14.0
FC Porto B
13.0
Leixoes
13.0
SC Covilha
12.3
Trofense
12.3
Academico Viseu
11.3
Oliveirense
11.3
Nacional
11.1
Penafiel
11.0
Farense
10.8
Benfica B
10.7
Belenenses
10.3
Feirense
10.0
Moreirense
10.0
Torreense
10.0
Tondela
9.7
Vilafranquense
9.5
Mafra
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Leixoes
8.0
Torreense
8.0
Vilafranquense
7.0
Moreirense
6.6
Benfica B
6.3
Oliveirense
6.3
Mafra
6.3
Belenenses
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Academico Viseu
6.0
Tondela
5.9
Penafiel
5.7
Farense
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Trofense
5.3
Nacional
5.3
Feirense
5.0
SC Covilha
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torreense
35.8
Feirense
35.6
Vilafranquense
35.5
Penafiel
34.3
Oliveirense
34.0
Farense
32.9
Leixoes
31.7
Nacional
31.2
Belenenses
30.9
Estrela
30.5
Tondela
29.8
Mafra
29.7
FC Porto B
29.3
Moreirense
29.0
Academico Viseu
26.7
Trofense
26.0
SC Covilha
24.7
Benfica B
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.8%
Under 9.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
87.2%
Under 3.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.0%
Under 21.5
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benfica B
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.67
0.50
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.62
2.33
0.33
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.17
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.30
0.20
0.40
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benfica B over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benfica B
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.42
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benfica B over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica B over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benfica B · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Henrique Araújo33%
João Veloso33%
Gonçalo Moreira33%
José Neto17%
João Rêgo14%
Tiago Freitas14%
Miguel Figueiredo12%
Diogo Prioste11%
Ivan Lima0%
Tomas de Sousa Moreira0%
Diogo Ferreira0%
João Fonseca0%
Gonçalo Oliveira0%
Martim Ferreira0%
Tiago Parente0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
Eduardo Fernandes0%
Francisco Silva0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
Olívio Tomé0%
Jelani Trevisan Dumas0%
Kevin Pinto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Osayande Peter Edokpolor0%
Rui Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tiago Parente40%
Miguel Figueiredo38%
Ivan Lima33%
Rui Silva33%
Eduardo Fernandes25%
Gonçalo Moreira22%
Martim Ferreira20%
Kevin Pinto20%
Rodrigo Rego17%
João Rêgo14%
Tomas de Sousa Moreira14%
Osayande Peter Edokpolor14%
Gonçalo Oliveira12%
Daniel Banjaqui12%
Diogo Prioste11%
Jelani Trevisan Dumas11%
Diogo Ferreira10%
Henrique Araújo0%
João Veloso0%
Tiago Freitas0%
João Fonseca0%
Francisco Silva0%
Olívio Tomé0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Henrique Araújo67%
Rodrigo Rego17%
Diogo Prioste11%
Gonçalo Moreira11%
Martim Ferreira10%
Ivan Lima0%
João Veloso0%
João Rêgo0%
Tomas de Sousa Moreira0%
Diogo Ferreira0%
Tiago Freitas0%
João Fonseca0%
Gonçalo Oliveira0%
Tiago Parente0%
Eduardo Fernandes0%
Miguel Figueiredo0%
Francisco Silva0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
Olívio Tomé0%
Jelani Trevisan Dumas0%
Kevin Pinto0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Osayande Peter Edokpolor0%
Rui Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Henrique Araújo33%
João Veloso33%
Francisco Silva33%
Diogo Prioste11%
Gonçalo Moreira11%
Jelani Trevisan Dumas11%
Ivan Lima0%
João Rêgo0%
Tomas de Sousa Moreira0%
Diogo Ferreira0%
Tiago Freitas0%
João Fonseca0%
Gonçalo Oliveira0%
Martim Ferreira0%
Tiago Parente0%
Rodrigo Rego0%
Eduardo Fernandes0%
Miguel Figueiredo0%
Daniel Banjaqui0%
Olívio Tomé0%
Kevin Pinto0%
José Neto0%
Anísio Cabral0%
Osayande Peter Edokpolor0%
Rui Silva0%
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
OLI (7)
€1m
Benfica B's squad is €26m more valuable than Penafiel's (€31m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Benfica B's attack is €7m more valuable than Penafiel's (€9m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
MOR (8)
€8m
FPB (6)
€7m
NAC (8)
€5m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Benfica B's midfield is €9m more valuable than Penafiel's (€10m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
EST (11)
€11m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
Benfica B's defence is €10m more valuable than Penafiel's (€13m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →