Benfica vs Maritimo Result & Analysis

Benfica’s recent three-game winning streak and a 3-1 victory over Aarhus set the tone for this Primeira Liga fixture, while Marítimo, fresh from a defeat, will struggle on the road. The model’s 72% home win probability reflects Benfica’s strong home form - averaging 1.93 goals scored and only 0.64 conceded against weaker opponents - against Marítimo’s weaker away record, where they average just 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded to stronger teams. The favoured result is a home win, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 at 15.1%. The expected total of 2.7 goals suggests a moderate-scoring match, and the model predicts a 25% chance of exactly two goals. Suggested picks include a 98.8% chance of over 19.5 fouls, a 96.9% chance of over 21.5 fouls, a 92.8% chance of over 23.5 fouls, an 85.9% chance of over 25.5 fouls, an 85.3% chance of over 2.5 cards, a 79.3% chance of under 11.5 corners, a 76.0% chance of over 1.5 goals, and a 72.3% chance of a home win. The probabilities for the match outcome are 72% home win, 20% draw, and 8% away win.

The win extends Benfica’s three-game winning run, while Marítimo comes off a defeat. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 72.3% probability, and it proved correct as Benfica edged Marítimo 1-0. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 15.1% did not materialise, but the 1-0 result still fell within the model’s top predictions. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 98.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 96.9%, Over 23.5 fouls at 92.8%, Over 25.5 fouls at 85.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 85.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.3%, and the Home win at 72.3% all hit. Only the Over 1.5 goals pick missed at 76.0%. The model’s predictions largely aligned with the match outcome.