This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.31
1.25
1.29
1.36
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.29
1.00
2.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.14
1.29
0.86
1.86
1.43
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.78
1.60
1.20
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.7%
@ 1.41-4.1%
Under 2.5
37.3%
@ 2.83+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 3.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
11.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.0%
1-1
8.7%
1-0
8.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.4%
0-0
4.7%
Benfica goals ↓
Moreirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
2.5%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.7%
8.7%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
2
11%
9.5%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
9.0%
7.6%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.4%
4.5%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benfica goals (down), columns = Moreirense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.50
FC Porto
2.35
Benfica
2.24
SC Braga
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.56
Santa Clara
1.35
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.26
Famalicao
1.18
Belenenses
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Boavista
1.06
Portimonense
1.03
Maritimo
1.03
Rio Ave
1.00
Farense
0.91
Nacional
0.74
Benfica is 0.97 points better than Moreirense in terms of average points per game (2.24 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.03
Sporting CP
1.91
SC Braga
1.56
Santa Clara
1.29
Famalicao
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.18
Boavista
1.15
Moreirense
1.09
Guimaraes
1.09
Tondela
1.06
Portimonense
1.00
GIL Vicente
0.97
Farense
0.91
Nacional
0.88
Maritimo
0.79
Rio Ave
0.74
Belenenses
0.74
Benfica is 0.94 goals better than Moreirense in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.59
Benfica
0.79
FC Porto
0.85
SC Braga
0.97
Belenenses
1.03
Santa Clara
1.06
Rio Ave
1.18
Portimonense
1.21
Pacos Ferreira
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.24
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.29
Maritimo
1.38
Famalicao
1.41
Farense
1.41
Boavista
1.44
Tondela
1.68
Nacional
1.74
Benfica is 0.47 goals better than Moreirense in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benfica
For 6.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.7 · Against 14.4 · Total 32.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
For 4.7 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 16.9 · Total 33.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.1
9.7
5.1
4.3
5.9
27.6
25.4
29.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
8.8
10.0
8.2
8.2
7.0
8.8
33.5
31.0
34.8
vs Weaker (44)
10.6
11.2
10.0
4.7
4.0
5.3
26.8
25.0
28.8
% over line
52%
64%
40%
68%
60%
76%
86%
80%
92%
% under line
48%
36%
60%
32%
40%
24%
14%
20%
8%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.0
5.1
5.5
4.6
32.8
33.1
32.5
vs Stronger (11)
10.4
11.1
9.0
5.0
5.3
4.5
27.3
28.1
25.8
vs Similar (23)
10.0
10.2
9.8
4.6
4.9
4.3
33.0
35.0
30.8
vs Weaker (16)
10.9
11.4
10.6
5.8
6.6
5.1
36.2
34.7
37.4
% over line
66%
69%
62%
74%
85%
62%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
34%
31%
38%
26%
15%
38%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Guimaraes
11.1
Pacos Ferreira
10.8
Santa Clara
10.7
Boavista
10.7
Sporting CP
10.6
Nacional
10.6
Famalicao
10.5
SC Braga
10.4
Benfica
10.4
Moreirense
10.4
Tondela
10.4
Maritimo
10.2
Farense
10.0
Rio Ave
9.9
Belenenses
9.7
Portimonense
9.5
FC Porto
9.3
GIL Vicente
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Farense
7.0
Sporting CP
6.2
Famalicao
6.1
Pacos Ferreira
5.7
Boavista
5.7
SC Braga
5.7
Maritimo
5.4
FC Porto
5.4
Tondela
5.3
Nacional
5.2
Belenenses
5.1
Benfica
5.1
Moreirense
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
Santa Clara
4.8
Guimaraes
4.7
Portimonense
4.5
GIL Vicente
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Boavista
35.0
Pacos Ferreira
34.4
GIL Vicente
33.6
Maritimo
33.5
Moreirense
32.8
Portimonense
32.5
Tondela
32.0
Nacional
31.9
Rio Ave
31.7
Sporting CP
31.5
Belenenses
31.4
FC Porto
31.3
Guimaraes
31.2
Famalicao
31.1
Santa Clara
31.0
SC Braga
30.4
Farense
30.0
Benfica
27.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.8%
Under 3.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.3%
Under 21.5
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.30
0.93
0.21
0.81
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (27)
0.89
0.22
0.92
0.23
0.86
0.21
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.56
0.62
0.36
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.44
0.80
0.60
0.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.29
0.57
1.19
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.22
0.56
1.31
0.54
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.75
0.62
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.50
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.64
0.86
0.43
1.29
0.86
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.33
0.80
0.60
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
71.1%
1.14
-
-
-
-
-
-11.3%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benfica · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis100%
Gianluca Prestianni67%
Clément Lenglet33%
Rafa Silva33%
Jhon Durán33%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tomás Araújo33%
Georgiy Sudakov33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Vangelis Pavlidis0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Gianluca Prestianni0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Bah33%
Leandro Barreiro33%
Vangelis Pavlidis33%
Enzo Barrenechea33%
Tomás Araújo33%
Gianluca Prestianni33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Prestianni100%
Vangelis Pavlidis67%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Benfica's squad is €335m more valuable than Moreirense's (€357m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
GV (12)
€11m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Benfica's attack is €167m more valuable than Moreirense's (€172m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Benfica's midfield is €68m more valuable than Moreirense's (€77m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
GV (10)
€11m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Benfica's defence is €99m more valuable than Moreirense's (€108m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
FC Porto
SC Braga
Pacos Ferreira
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Belenenses
GIL Vicente
Boavista
Tondela
Portimonense
Maritimo
Rio Ave
Farense
Nacional