This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.77
0.50
1.38
1.29
2.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
3.00
0.50
2.25
1.00
3.60
vs Similar (20)
0.80
1.20
0.50
1.08
1.25
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (35%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
95.7%
Under 1.5
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
86.1%
Under 2.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.2%
Under 3.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
7.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
7.3%
4-1
7.3%
2-0
5.9%
2-1
5.9%
5-0
5.6%
5-1
5.6%
Benfica goals ↓
Nacional goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.1%
0.5%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
2.8%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
2
5.9%
5.9%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
3
7.6%
7.6%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
4
7.3%
7.3%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benfica goals (down), columns = Nacional goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Benfica is 1.74 points better than Nacional in terms of average points per game (2.56 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Benfica is 2.06 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals scored per game (3.03 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Benfica is 1.24 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals conceded per game (0.91 vs 2.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benfica
For 7.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.2 · Against 16.8 · Total 34.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
For 6.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.5 · Against 18.2 · Total 34.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.5
10.3
5.0
4.8
5.2
30.1
30.7
29.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
10.7
10.8
10.7
6.7
7.5
5.7
34.1
34.8
33.3
vs Weaker (43)
11.0
11.7
10.3
4.7
4.3
5.1
29.5
29.9
29.1
% over line
60%
67%
54%
84%
79%
88%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
16%
21%
12%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
32.4
33.2
31.4
vs Stronger (15)
8.5
6.7
10.3
1.7
2.1
1.2
29.8
30.7
29.0
vs Similar (34)
9.3
10.4
7.6
2.0
2.0
2.0
33.4
34.1
32.2
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
-
13.0
7.0
-
7.0
35.0
-
35.0
% over line
50%
55%
44%
32%
35%
29%
95%
100%
89%
% under line
50%
45%
56%
68%
65%
71%
5%
0%
11%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Santa Clara
11.9
Sporting CP
11.2
Boavista
11.2
Tondela
11.0
Benfica
10.9
Aves
10.9
Chaves
10.8
Feirense
10.5
Guimaraes
10.4
Rio Ave
10.3
FC Porto
10.1
SC Braga
10.0
Moreirense
9.9
Portimonense
9.8
Maritimo
9.5
Setubal
9.5
Belenenses
9.4
Nacional
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
6.2
Boavista
5.9
Sporting CP
5.6
Feirense
5.6
Setubal
5.5
Santa Clara
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Moreirense
5.1
Benfica
5.0
Nacional
5.0
Portimonense
5.0
Maritimo
5.0
FC Porto
4.8
Aves
4.8
Chaves
4.6
Belenenses
4.6
SC Braga
4.6
Guimaraes
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
37.0
Feirense
36.1
Rio Ave
34.9
Boavista
33.7
Tondela
33.1
Guimaraes
32.6
Nacional
32.4
FC Porto
32.4
Maritimo
32.1
Aves
32.0
Moreirense
32.0
Santa Clara
31.8
SC Braga
31.6
Chaves
31.5
Portimonense
31.5
Belenenses
31.1
Sporting CP
31.0
Benfica
30.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.3%
Under 9.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
76.2%
Under 3.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.1%
Under 21.5
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.13
0.53
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.56
1.42
0.67
0.77
0.46
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.12
0.50
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.44
0.25
0.75
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.50
0.08
0.42
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.37
1.47
0.47
0.93
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.28
0.32
1.67
0.42
0.92
0.23
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.38
0.88
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.56
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.60
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.70
0.42
0.67
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benfica · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis100%
Gianluca Prestianni67%
Clément Lenglet33%
Rafa Silva33%
Jhon Durán33%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tomás Araújo33%
Georgiy Sudakov33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Vangelis Pavlidis0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Gianluca Prestianni0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Bah33%
Leandro Barreiro33%
Vangelis Pavlidis33%
Enzo Barrenechea33%
Tomás Araújo33%
Gianluca Prestianni33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Prestianni100%
Vangelis Pavlidis67%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Nacional · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
Benfica's squad is €337m more valuable than Nacional's (€357m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
Benfica's attack is €166m more valuable than Nacional's (€172m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
Benfica's midfield is €72m more valuable than Nacional's (€77m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
Benfica's defence is €99m more valuable than Nacional's (€108m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Tondela
Chaves
Feirense