Berane vs Igalo Result & Analysis

Date: 20/05/2026

Time: 15:30

Final 0-1

Berane

52%

29%

19%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Igalo

Montenegro: Second League

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

In this Montenegro Second League match, the home win is the most likely outcome. Berane's recent form has been concerning, with two straight defeats, but they have a decent record at home, scoring 1.22 goals on average against stronger opponents and conceding 1.33 goals. Igalo, on the other hand, struggles to score away from home, averaging 0.45 goals against weaker opponents, but they have been more solid in defense, conceding 1.55 goals.

The model predicts a 52% chance of a home win, 29% chance of a draw, and 19% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being 1-0, occurring 13.8% of the time. The model's selection is the under 3.5 goals, which has an 80.3% chance of hitting.

Berane has a 52% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 19% chance of losing. The model suggests the under 3.5 goals, which has an 80.3% chance of hitting.

Results analysis

Berane's winning streak was snapped as they fell 0-1 to Igalo, handing the away side a much-needed victory. The win extends Igalo's run of draws and wins. The pre-match favourite, a home win, was not to be, with the model's call proven wrong. The model had predicted a home win with a 52% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection, an under 3.5 goal match, hit with an 80.3% probability, as the final score was 0-1. Another suggested pick, the away win, missed, with a 19% probability, while the draw was also off the mark, with a 29% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Berane win✗ Miss

51.8%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

28.9%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Igalo win✓ Hit

19.3%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Berane

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.6

Avg scored

1.5

Avg conceded

1.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.27	1.07	1.20	1.53	1.33	0.60
vs Stronger (18)	1.33	1.11	1.22	1.33	1.44	0.89
vs Similar (12)	1.17	1.00	1.17	1.83	1.17	0.17
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	40% (+8pp vs league)

This opponent (Igalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Igalo

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.6

Avg scored

0.2

Avg conceded

1.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.53	1.73	0.71	1.64	0.38	1.81
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (10)	0.30	2.10	0.40	1.80	0.20	2.40
vs Weaker (20)	0.65	1.55	0.89	1.56	0.45	1.55
Clean sheet %	30% (-2pp vs league)

This opponent (Berane) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

67.7%

Under 1.5

32.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

39.9%

Under 2.5

60.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

19.7%

Under 3.5

80.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

43.9%

56.1%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-0

13.8%

1-1

13.4%

0-0

11.4%

2-0

11.1%

2-1

9.0%

0-1 ✓

7.0%

3-0

5.5%

1-2

4.9%

Berane goals ↓

	Igalo goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	11%	7.0%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%
1	14%	13%	4.9%	1.3%	0.3%
2	11%	9.0%	3.6%	1.0%	0.2%
3	5.5%	4.4%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
4	2.0%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Berane goals (down), columns = Igalo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Otrant-Olympic

2.06

Grbalj

1.86

Iskra (Montenegro)

1.78

Berane

1.39

Kom

1.39

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.34

Lovćen

1.33

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.31

Zeta

1.00

Igalo

0.89

Internacional Podgorica

0.64

Brskovo

0.00

Berane is 0.49 points better than Igalo in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Otrant-Olympic

2.25

Grbalj

1.75

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.42

Iskra (Montenegro)

1.42

Kom

1.31

Berane

1.25

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.08

Lovćen

0.94

Internacional Podgorica

0.86

Igalo

0.58

Zeta

0.50

Brskovo

0.50

Berane is 0.67 goals better than Igalo in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.58).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Zeta

0.50

Otrant-Olympic

0.86

Iskra (Montenegro)

0.94

Berane

1.00

Grbalj

1.17

Kom

1.19

Lovćen

1.25

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.28

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.29

Igalo

1.55

Internacional Podgorica

2.11

Brskovo

3.50

Berane is 0.55 goals better than Igalo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.55).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	80.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (24)

€2m

OTR (27)

€1m

R( (36)

€0m

GRB (36)

€0m

LOV (45)

€0m

BER (36)

€0m

KOM (37)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Berane vs Igalo · H/A from BER

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/03/26	A	Igalo Vs BER	0-2
23/11/25	H	BER Vs Igalo	0-0
24/09/25	A	Igalo Vs BER	0-4
12/05/24	A	Igalo Vs BER	2-0
24/03/24	H	BER Vs Igalo	0-0
12/11/23	A	Igalo Vs BER	0-2
17/09/23	H	BER Vs Igalo	0-3
21/05/23	A	Igalo Vs BER	1-1

Berane

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/05/26	A	Lovćen Vs BER	0-0
10/05/26	H	BER Vs Kom	4-3
03/05/26	H	BER Vs Rudar (Montenegro)	0-1
26/04/26	A	Internacional Podgorica Vs BER	2-2
18/04/26	H	BER Vs Otrant-Olympic	0-2
12/04/26	A	Grbalj Vs BER	1-2
08/04/26	H	BER Vs Iskra (Montenegro)	2-0
04/04/26	H	BER Vs Mladost Lješkopolje	2-1
28/03/26	A	Igalo Vs BER	0-2
22/03/26	H	BER Vs Lovćen	1-1

Igalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/05/26	H	IGA Vs Rudar (Montenegro)	0-0
10/05/26	A	Internacional Podgorica Vs IGA	3-1
02/05/26	H	IGA Vs Otrant-Olympic	0-2
26/04/26	A	Grbalj Vs IGA	0-1
18/04/26	H	IGA Vs Iskra (Montenegro)	0-1
12/04/26	A	Mladost Lješkopolje Vs IGA	2-0
08/04/26	A	Kom Vs IGA	2-0
04/04/26	A	Lovćen Vs IGA	0-0
28/03/26	H	IGA Vs Berane	0-2
22/03/26	A	Rudar (Montenegro) Vs IGA	2-0

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Berane

Montenegro: Second League

Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LDLWD	1.20
Home	WWLLW	1.00
Away	DWWDD	1.40

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	28%	24%	32%
AVG goals	2.40	2.72	2.08
Over 1.5 %	72%	84%	60%
Over 2.5 %	42%	44%	40%
Over 3.5 %	30%	32%	28%
Scored	1.14	1.16	1.12
Conceded	1.26	1.56	0.96
BTTS	44%	56%	32%
Clean Sheet	38%	24%	52%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Igalo

Montenegro: Second League

Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWLLD	1.04
Home	WLLLD	1.36
Away	DLLWL	0.72

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	26%	40%	12%
AVG goals	2.42	2.68	2.16
Over 1.5 %	70%	76%	64%
Over 2.5 %	40%	48%	32%
Over 3.5 %	28%	28%	28%
Scored	0.96	1.36	0.56
Conceded	1.46	1.32	1.60
BTTS	32%	28%	36%
Clean Sheet	32%	36%	28%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 10. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Otrant-Olympic	36	74	64%	2.1	81	31	+50	3.1	78%	58%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	2.2	0.9	-
2	Grbalj	36	67	58%	1.9	63	42	+21	2.9	86%	53%	31%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.2	-
3	Iskra (Montenegro)	36	64	47%	1.8	51	34	+17	2.4	64%	42%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	0.9	-
4	Rudar (Montenegro)	38	51	37%	1.3	54	49	+5	2.7	71%	53%	32%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.3	-
5	Berane	36	50	33%	1.4	45	36	+9	2.2	72%	36%	28%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.0	-
6	Kom	36	50	42%	1.4	47	43	+4	2.5	67%	42%	28%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.2	-
7	Lovćen	36	48	39%	1.3	34	45	-11	2.2	56%	36%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	1.2	-
8	Mladost Lješkopolje	36	47	36%	1.3	39	46	-7	2.4	53%	42%	31%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.1	1.3	-
9	Igalo	38	34	21%	0.9	22	59	-37	2.1	63%	34%	24%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	1.6	-
10	Internacional Podgorica	36	23	14%	0.6	31	76	-45	3.0	86%	56%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	2.1	-
11	Zeta	2	2	0%	1.0	1	1	+0	1.0	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	-
12	Brskovo	2	0	0%	0.0	1	7	-6	4.0	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	3.5	-

Montenegro: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

← all matches

Berane vs Igalo Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Berane

Igalo

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Berane

Igalo

📊 9. Overall Statistics

🏆 10. League Table

A Pro feature