The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, while a draw sits at 27% and an away win at 22%. The expected total is 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% chance. BFA, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.67 conceded, whereas Babrungas, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 74.2% chance and Under 3.5 with a 73.9% chance. BFA entered the match after a draw, having finished 2-2 against Tauras, while Babrungas came off a win, 1-0 over Garliava. The predicted outcome is a home victory, but the match could still finish 1-1 or 2-0.
Results analysis
The upset came as BFA, the pre-match favourite with a 51% chance, fell short, losing 0-3 to Babrungas. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The game saw the model’s suggested picks hit: Over 1.5 goals at 74.2% probability and Under 3.5 at 73.9%. BFA had been coming off a draw, while Babrungas arrived on a win, yet the Lithuanian side’s 1-0 average away score proved decisive. The match ended with a 0-3 scoreline, confirming the away team’s triumph and the model’s prediction of a home victory proved incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFA win✗ Miss
51.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Babrungas win✓ Hit
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.20
2.00
1.00
1.80
1.40
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.67
1.00
1.67
2.00
1.67
vs Similar (2)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.64
1.27
2.33
1.33
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.25
2.60
1.40
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.0%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.3%
BFA goals ↓
Babrungas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.1%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.7%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.8%
9.5%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.3%
5.1%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Babrungas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dainava
2.23
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.07
Šiauliai II
2.00
Nevėžis
1.93
Be1 NFA
1.90
Šilas
1.77
Babrungas
1.53
Ekranas
1.37
BFA
1.27
Žalgiris II
1.20
Panevėžys II
1.20
Minija
1.10
Garliava
1.10
Trakai II
1.07
FA Šiauliai II
1.04
Atmosfera
0.80
Banga II
0.67
BFA is 0.27 points worse than Babrungas in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dainava
2.30
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.20
BFA
1.80
Babrungas
1.73
Nevėžis
1.73
Šilas
1.70
Ekranas
1.60
Panevėžys II
1.57
Šiauliai II
1.50
Žalgiris II
1.47
Atmosfera
1.37
Trakai II
1.37
Be1 NFA
1.30
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Garliava
1.03
Minija
0.90
Banga II
0.87
BFA is 0.07 goals better than Babrungas in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Šiauliai II
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.63
Nevėžis
0.87
Dainava
1.03
Babrungas
1.13
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.20
Minija
1.30
Šilas
1.37
BFA
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.60
Trakai II
1.60
Garliava
1.67
Ekranas
1.70
FA Šiauliai II
1.89
Panevėžys II
2.10
Banga II
2.23
Atmosfera
2.23
BFA is 0.43 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.33
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.75
1.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.60
1.20
0.40
1.20
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.67
0.25
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.50
1.20
0.80
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dainava
Neptūną Klaipėda
Nevėžis
Be1 NFA
Šilas
Ekranas
Žalgiris II
Panevėžys II
Minija
Garliava
Trakai II
FA Šiauliai II
Atmosfera
Banga II
Šiauliai II