The model sees Kauno Žalgiris as the clear favourite, assigning a 99% probability to an away win. This rating reflects their strong away form: they average 1.5 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded against weaker opponents, while BFA at home struggles against stronger teams, scoring 1.75 but conceding 1.0. The predicted outcome is an away victory, with the most likely scoreline 0-5, a 11.7% chance. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 6.5 goals and a 56% probability that the total will be 6 or more. Home win probability stands at 0%, draw at 1%, and away win at 99%. Suggested picks include Away +2 handicap (99.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.8%), Away over 0.5 goals (99.7%), Draw or Away (99.7%), Away +1 handicap (99.7%), Over 1.5 (98.9%), Home or Away (98.8%), and Home under 2.5 goals (98.7%). The model’s selections emphasize Kauno Žalgiris’s dominance and the likelihood of a decisive away triumph.
Results analysis
The Pythia model nailed the match, with the favoured away win materialising as Kauno Žalgiris took the 0-3 victory. The prediction of a 0-3 scoreline was spot on, confirming the model’s confidence in the away side’s superiority. The model’s favourite, Away win, at 99% probability, proved correct. Every suggested pick also hit: Away +2 handicap at 99.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.8%, Away over 0.5 goals at 99.7%, Draw or Away at 99.7%, Away +1 handicap at 99.7%, Over 1.5 at 98.9%, Home or Away at 98.8%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 98.7%. With the final score aligning with the most likely 6+ total, the model’s selections dominated, delivering a flawless set of outcomes.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFA win✗ Miss
0.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
1.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
98.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.30
1.69
0.94
1.71
1.71
vs Stronger (16)
1.75
1.38
1.75
1.00
1.75
1.75
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.44
1.80
1.20
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.80
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.87
2.00
0.93
1.69
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.90
1.15
2.00
1.20
1.80
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.30
2.00
0.25
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 6.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (56%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
98.9%
Under 1.5
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
95.5%
Under 2.5
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
88.2%
Under 3.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.5%
No
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-5
11.7%
0-6
11.7%
0-7
10.0%
0-4
9.7%
0-8
7.5%
0-3 ✓
6.5%
1-5
5.7%
1-6
5.7%
BFA goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.2%
1.0%
3.2%
6.5%
9.7%
1
0.0%
0.6%
1.6%
3.2%
4.7%
2
0.0%
0.1%
0.4%
0.8%
1.2%
3
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
3.00
Hegelmann Litauen
2.40
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Džiugas Telšiai
2.25
Babrungas
2.25
Jonava
2.25
Šiauliai
2.00
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Minija
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Vilnius FA
1.50
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Utenis Utena
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.50
Banga
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Atmosfera
1.50
Ekranas
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Nevėžis
1.50
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.01
OG Kaišiadorys
1.01
FK Sumskas
1.01
FK Ketera
1.01
Svyturys
1.01
Radviliškis
1.01
Vilniaus Vytis
1.01
FK Inter Nemencine
1.01
Nadruvis
1.01
Granitas
1.01
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.01
Kaunas City FA
1.01
Sendvaris
0.00
Viltis Vilnius
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.00
FK Trakai
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
BFA
0.00
BFA is 2.00 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ekranas
9.00
Tauras
6.33
Panevėžys
4.60
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4.00
Atmosfera
4.00
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.00
VGTU Vilkai
3.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
3.00
Babrungas
3.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.50
Sveikata
2.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.40
Alternatyvus FK
2.33
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Jonava
2.25
Utenis Utena
2.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Minija
2.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.75
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.68
OG Kaišiadorys
1.68
FK Sumskas
1.68
FK Ketera
1.68
Svyturys
1.68
Radviliškis
1.68
Vilniaus Vytis
1.68
FK Inter Nemencine
1.68
Nadruvis
1.68
Granitas
1.68
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.68
Kaunas City FA
1.68
Kauno Žalgiris
1.67
Be1 NFA
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Trakai
1.00
Venta
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
BFA
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.50
Garliava
0.50
Sendvaris
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
BFA is 0.67 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.50
Banga
0.50
Babrungas
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Minija
0.67
Suduva Marijampole
0.75
Šilutė
1.00
Nemunas
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Šiauliai
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Tauras
1.33
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Jonava
1.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
Vilnius FA
2.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Utenos Utena
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.67
Viltis Vilnius
3.00
Širvėna Biržai
3.00
Utenis Utena
3.00
Ataka Vilnius
3.00
BFA
3.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
3.05
OG Kaišiadorys
3.05
FK Sumskas
3.05
FK Ketera
3.05
Svyturys
3.05
Radviliškis
3.05
Vilniaus Vytis
3.05
FK Inter Nemencine
3.05
Nadruvis
3.05
Granitas
3.05
FK Jurbarko Imsre
3.05
Kaunas City FA
3.05
VGTU Vilkai
3.50
Pempininkai Gargždai
4.00
FKS Ukmergė
4.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Venta
6.00
Saned Joniškis
6.00
Dainava
6.00
Tera
8.00
Sendvaris
13.00
Trivartis Vilnius
13.00
BFA is 1.67 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BFA or Draw✗ Miss
1.5%
Avg Implied -
0%
1%
99%
covers BFA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA or Kauno Žalgiris✓ Hit
98.8%
Avg Implied -
0%
1%
99%
covers BFA + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris✓ Hit
99.7%
Avg Implied -
0%
1%
99%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BFA over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
99.7%
Under
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
98.2%
Under
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
93.5%
Under
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
84.2%
Under
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BFA, so a minus line means BFA give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris receive them. At -1, BFA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BFA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BFA)Actual: Kauno Žalgiris
BFA -2
0.0%
Draw -2
0.0%
Kauno Žalgiris +2
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BFA)Actual: Kauno Žalgiris
BFA -1
0.1%
Draw -1
0.2%
Kauno Žalgiris +1
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BFA)Actual: Kauno Žalgiris
BFA +1
1.5%
Draw +1
3.2%
Kauno Žalgiris -1
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BFA)Actual: Kauno Žalgiris
BFA +2
4.6%
Draw +2
6.9%
Kauno Žalgiris -2
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.62
0.44
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.38
0.50
0.88
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.44
0.80
0.60
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
0.79
0.14
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.30
0.60
0.10
1.10
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.20
1.25
0.25
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.06
0.50
0.93
1.14
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
0.75
1.25
0.62
1.25
0.88
vs Similar (9)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.21
0.79
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.85
1.40
1.10
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.10
0.75
0.00
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away +2 handicap
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away -1 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away -2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 3.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →