The model favours a home win, with a 48% chance of BFA triumphing, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of Minija victory. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a lively encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.8% probability. BFA, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Minija on the road averages 1.5 scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 77.4% and Under 3.5 goals at 70.1%. BFA’s recent form shows a draw-heavy run, coming off a 2-2 with Tauras, whereas Minija rides a five-game winning streak, having edged Dainava 3-2. The match is set for a competitive clash, with the home side’s edge and the balanced scoring statistics suggesting a tight but decisive contest.
Results analysis
The win extends BFA’s recent form, as they finish their last five with a draw before taking the match at home. The model’s favourite, a Home win, came through with a 48% probability, and the result was indeed a 2-0 victory for BFA. The prediction of a 2-goal total was correct, matching the 2-0 scoreline. The model’s selections also proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 77.4% probability, and Under 3.5 goals hit with a 70.1% probability. With the favoured outcome and the key picks all settled in favour, the model delivered a clean sweep of predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFA win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minija win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.37
1.15
1.23
1.29
1.47
vs Stronger (16)
1.19
1.50
1.00
1.43
1.33
1.56
vs Similar (8)
1.62
1.25
1.33
1.00
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.17
1.33
1.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.10
1.88
0.69
1.07
1.57
vs Stronger (13)
1.46
1.31
1.86
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (10)
1.80
0.50
2.00
0.33
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
1.57
1.67
0.67
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.2%
2-0 ✓
8.5%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
BFA goals ↓
Minija goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
5.9%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.2%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.5%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.6%
5.2%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Minija goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
BFA is 0.39 points worse than Minija in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
BFA is 0.11 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
BFA is 0.09 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.31
0.46
0.47
0.71
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.69
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.78
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.33
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.81
0.25
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.54
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.10
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.71
0.67
0.33
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.85
0.77
0.82
0.76
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
0.81
0.71
0.86
1.00
0.78
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.06
0.44
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.77
1.14
0.71
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.17
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.86
1.00
0.33
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
BFA and Minija have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
BFA and Minija have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
BFA and Minija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
BFA and Minija have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
TransINVEST Vilnius
Be1 NFA
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Nevėžis
Trakai II
Garliava
Ekranas
Šilas
FA Šiauliai II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Panevėžys II
Žalgiris II
Jonava