PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

BFA vs Neptūną Klaipėda Result & Analysis

Date: 04/06/2022
Time: 11:00
Final 3-0
BFA
BFA
Vs
29%
27%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFA win✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda win✗ Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L22D20W01L40W23L02L30WH·ŠIL19/03H·PAN27/03A·NEV01/04H·DAI09/04H·GAR16/04A·BE101/05A·EKR14/05A·FA 21/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.751.251.751.251.751.25
vs Stronger (5)1.401.601.001.672.001.50
vs Similar (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
vs Weaker (2)2.001.004.000.000.002.00
Clean sheet %38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W50W20W11D11D30W20W12L43WA·ŽAL19/03A·BAN27/03A·PAN03/04H·ŠIL08/04H·NEV15/04H·DAI29/04H·GAR13/05A·BE122/05H·EKR28/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.220.782.201.002.250.50
vs Stronger (3)1.001.331.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (4)2.750.003.000.002.670.00
vs Weaker (2)3.001.503.001.50--
Clean sheet %56% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.3%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.3%
0-0
7.2%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.7%
BFA goals ↓
Neptūną Klaipėda goals →
01234
07.2%8.3%7.4%3.9%1.5%
16.3%13%9.2%4.8%1.9%
24.6%7.3%5.7%3.0%1.2%
31.9%3.0%2.4%1.2%0.5%
40.6%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dainava
2.23
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.07
Šiauliai II
2.00
Nevėžis
1.93
Be1 NFA
1.90
Šilas
1.77
Babrungas
1.53
Ekranas
1.37
BFA
1.27
Žalgiris II
1.20
Panevėžys II
1.20
Minija
1.10
Garliava
1.10
Trakai II
1.07
FA Šiauliai II
1.04
Atmosfera
0.80
Banga II
0.67
BFA is 0.80 points worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 2.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dainava
2.30
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.20
BFA
1.80
Babrungas
1.73
Nevėžis
1.73
Šilas
1.70
Ekranas
1.60
Panevėžys II
1.57
Šiauliai II
1.50
Žalgiris II
1.47
Atmosfera
1.37
Trakai II
1.37
Be1 NFA
1.30
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Garliava
1.03
Minija
0.90
Banga II
0.87
BFA is 0.40 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 2.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Šiauliai II
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.63
Nevėžis
0.87
Dainava
1.03
Babrungas
1.13
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.20
Minija
1.30
Šilas
1.37
BFA
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.60
Trakai II
1.60
Garliava
1.67
Ekranas
1.70
FA Šiauliai II
1.89
Panevėžys II
2.10
Banga II
2.23
Atmosfera
2.23
BFA is 0.37 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L11D00D01L10W11D01L10WH·ŠIL19/03H·PAN27/03A·NEV01/04H·DAI09/04H·GAR16/04A·BE101/05A·EKR14/05A·FA 21/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.620.500.750.500.50
vs Stronger (5)0.400.800.331.000.500.50
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W00D10W10W00D11D11DA·BAN27/03A·PAN03/04H·ŠIL08/04H·NEV15/04H·DAI29/04H·GAR13/05A·BE122/05H·EKR28/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.120.250.600.202.000.33
vs Stronger (3)0.670.330.500.001.001.00
vs Similar (3)2.000.001.000.002.500.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.500.50--
Clean sheet %75% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D20W00D30W12L01L20WH·ŠIL19/03H·PAN27/03A·NEV01/04H·DAI09/04H·GAR16/04A·BE101/05A·EKR14/05A·FA 21/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.250.621.250.501.250.75
vs Stronger (5)1.000.800.670.671.501.00
vs Similar (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.503.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D11D01L20W20W01L32WA·BAN27/03A·PAN03/04H·ŠIL08/04H·NEV15/04H·DAI29/04H·GAR13/05A·BE122/05H·EKR28/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.250.621.600.800.670.33
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (3)1.330.002.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (2)2.501.002.501.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
BFA and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
BFA and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
BFA wins
0
Draws
0
NK wins

Head-to-head

BFA vs Neptūną Klaipėda · H/A from BFA
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/22AFA Šiauliai II Vs BFA0-3
14/05/22AEkranas Vs BFA2-0
01/05/22ABe1 NFA Vs BFA3-2
16/04/22HBFA Vs Garliava4-0
09/04/22HBFA Vs Dainava0-1
01/04/22ANevėžis Vs BFA0-2
27/03/22HBFA Vs Panevėžys II2-2
19/03/22HBFA Vs Šilas1-2

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/22HNK Vs Ekranas4-3
22/05/22ABe1 NFA Vs NK2-1
13/05/22HNK Vs Garliava2-0
29/04/22HNK Vs Dainava3-0
15/04/22HNK Vs Nevėžis1-1
08/04/22HNK Vs Šilas1-1
03/04/22APanevėžys II Vs NK0-2
27/03/22ABanga II Vs NK0-5
19/03/22AŽalgiris II Vs NK0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW1.25
HomeLDLW1.00
AwayWLLW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%25%50%
AVG goals3.003.003.00
Over 1.5 %88%75%100%
Over 2.5 %62%75%50%
Over 3.5 %38%50%25%
Scored1.751.751.75
Conceded1.251.251.25
BTTS38%50%25%
Clean Sheet38%25%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW2.22
HomeDDWWW2.20
AwayWWWL2.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%60%75%
AVG goals3.003.202.75
Over 1.5 %89%100%75%
Over 2.5 %44%40%50%
Over 3.5 %22%20%25%
Scored2.222.202.25
Conceded0.781.000.50
BTTS44%60%25%
Clean Sheet56%40%75%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DainavaDainava3067
70%
2.2
6931+38
3.3
90%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3062
63%
2.1
6636+30
3.4
90%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3NevėžisNevėžis3058
57%
1.9
5226+26
2.6
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
4Be1 NFABe1 NFA3057
50%
1.9
3919+20
1.9
73%
27%
3%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.6
-
5ŠilasŠilas3053
53%
1.8
5141+10
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
-
6BabrungasBabrungas3046
43%
1.5
5234+18
2.9
80%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7EkranasEkranas3041
40%
1.4
4851-3
3.3
87%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
8BFABFA3038
37%
1.3
5447+7
3.4
90%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.6
-
9Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3036
30%
1.2
4448-4
3.1
73%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.6
-
10Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3036
33%
1.2
4763-16
3.7
97%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.1
-
11MinijaMinija3033
30%
1.1
2739-12
2.2
67%
37%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
12GarliavaGarliava3033
30%
1.1
3150-19
2.7
73%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
13Trakai IITrakai II3032
23%
1.1
4148-7
3.0
77%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
14FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II2829
32%
1.0
3053-23
3.0
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
15AtmosferaAtmosfera3024
20%
0.8
4167-26
3.6
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
16Banga IIBanga II3020
17%
0.7
2667-41
3.1
73%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
17Šiauliai IIŠiauliai II24
50%
2.0
31+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

← all matches