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BFA vs Neptūną Klaipėda Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 2-2
BFA
BFA
Vs
35%
28%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFA win✗ Miss
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda win✗ Miss
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W11D11D61W01L02L12L00D01L22DH·FA 25/06A·GAR01/07A·PAN31/07A·ŽAL07/08A·EKR12/08A·KAU21/08H·BAB26/08A·ŠIL30/08H·BE116/09A·NEV22/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.431.291.291.001.56
vs Stronger (15)1.071.601.251.380.861.86
vs Similar (9)1.441.331.331.331.501.33
vs Weaker (6)0.831.171.331.000.331.33
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W20W13L12L02L30W10W22D41W31WH·KAU23/06H·JON30/06A·TRA29/07H·TRA06/08A·MIN12/08H·FA 20/08A·GAR25/08H·PAN06/09A·ŽAL16/09H·EKR23/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.032.000.761.771.38
vs Stronger (11)2.091.551.401.002.672.00
vs Similar (13)1.460.691.750.381.001.20
vs Weaker (6)2.500.833.251.251.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
7.2%
1-0
7.1%
0-2
6.2%
2-2 ✓
5.9%
BFA goals ↓
Neptūną Klaipėda goals →
01234
07.2%7.4%6.2%2.9%1.0%
17.1%13%8.5%4.0%1.4%
25.7%8.2%5.9%2.8%1.0%
32.6%3.8%2.7%1.3%0.5%
40.9%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
BFA is 0.39 points worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.66).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
BFA is 0.53 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
BFA is 0.23 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W01L21W00D00D01L00D01L11DH·FA 25/06A·GAR01/07A·PAN31/07A·ŽAL07/08A·EKR12/08A·KAU21/08H·BAB26/08A·ŠIL30/08H·BE116/09A·NEV22/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.670.360.640.380.69
vs Stronger (15)0.270.730.380.620.140.86
vs Similar (9)0.440.890.001.000.670.83
vs Weaker (6)0.500.170.670.330.330.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L11D01L00D10W11D01L20WH·KAU23/06H·JON30/06A·TRA29/07H·TRA06/08A·MIN12/08H·FA 20/08A·GAR25/08H·PAN06/09A·ŽAL16/09H·EKR23/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.760.350.770.77
vs Stronger (11)0.820.910.400.601.171.17
vs Similar (13)0.460.310.620.120.200.60
vs Weaker (6)1.330.331.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W01L10W40W01L02L11D00D00D11DH·FA 25/06A·GAR01/07A·PAN31/07A·ŽAL07/08A·EKR12/08A·KAU21/08H·BAB26/08A·ŠIL30/08H·BE116/09A·NEV22/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.770.930.640.620.88
vs Stronger (15)0.800.870.880.750.711.00
vs Similar (9)1.000.441.330.330.830.50
vs Weaker (6)0.331.000.670.670.001.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W10W12L01L01L30W00D11D40W11DH·KAU23/06H·JON30/06A·TRA29/07H·TRA06/08A·MIN12/08H·FA 20/08A·GAR25/08H·PAN06/09A·ŽAL16/09H·EKR23/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.240.411.000.62
vs Stronger (11)1.270.641.000.401.500.83
vs Similar (13)1.000.381.120.250.800.60
vs Weaker (6)1.170.501.750.750.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
BFA and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
BFA and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
BFA and Neptūną Klaipėda have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
BFA wins
0
Draws
2
NK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFA vs Neptūną Klaipėda · H/A from BFA
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/23ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BFA1-0
07/10/22ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BFA1-0
04/06/22HBFA Vs Neptūną Klaipėda3-0

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/23ANevėžis Vs BFA2-2
16/09/23HBFA Vs Be1 NFA0-1
30/08/23AŠilas Vs BFA0-0
26/08/23HBFA Vs Babrungas1-2
21/08/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BFA2-0
12/08/23AEkranas Vs BFA1-0
07/08/23AŽalgiris II Vs BFA1-6
31/07/23APanevėžys II Vs BFA1-1
01/07/23AGarliava Vs BFA1-1
25/06/23HBFA Vs FA Šiauliai II2-1

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23HNK Vs Ekranas3-1
16/09/23AŽalgiris II Vs NK1-4
06/09/23HNK Vs Panevėžys II2-2
25/08/23AGarliava Vs NK0-1
20/08/23HNK Vs FA Šiauliai II3-0
12/08/23AMinija Vs NK2-0
06/08/23HNK Vs Trakai II1-2
29/07/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs NK3-1
30/06/23HNK Vs Jonava2-0
23/06/23HNK Vs Kauno Žalgiris II5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD1.18
HomeWDWLL1.67
AwayWLLDD0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%50%15%
AVG goals2.942.962.92
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored1.481.791.19
Conceded1.461.171.73
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.80
HomeWLWDW2.18
AwayDLLWW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%64%36%
AVG goals3.082.933.27
Over 1.5 %82%82%82%
Over 2.5 %60%57%64%
Over 3.5 %38%32%45%
Scored1.902.071.68
Conceded1.180.861.59
BTTS60%54%68%
Clean Sheet32%46%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
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0000.92.6
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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