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BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja Result & Analysis

Date: 05/06/2023
Time: 14:30
Final 1-2
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Vs
20%
22%
58%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
58.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L01L02L33D01L40W11D01L52W13LH·RĪG19/04A·FK 23/04H·AUD28/04H·TUK03/05A·RIG08/05A·SUP14/05H·MET18/05A·VAL22/05H·FS 26/05A·RĪG30/05
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.801.351.820.921.77
vs Stronger (10)0.502.400.672.500.252.25
vs Similar (16)1.311.381.671.440.861.29
vs Weaker (4)2.252.002.001.502.502.50
Clean sheet %10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W10W62W11D40W04L03L12L12L01LA·TUK18/04H·BFC23/04A·SUP28/04H·MET03/05A·AUD07/05H·RIG12/05H·RĪG17/05A·FS 22/05H·VAL27/05H·TUK01/06
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.431.561.621.931.21
vs Stronger (7)0.142.290.253.000.001.33
vs Similar (11)1.550.821.001.002.200.60
vs Weaker (12)2.831.503.001.332.671.67
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
1-2 ✓
9.6%
0-2
7.8%
1-3
7.1%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.4%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
01234
04.1%6.3%7.8%5.7%3.1%
13.1%9.7%9.6%7.1%3.9%
22.5%5.4%5.9%4.3%2.4%
31.0%2.2%2.4%1.8%1.0%
40.3%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.42 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
BFC Daugavpils is 0.33 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.06 goals better than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D00D21W00D30W00D01L10W11DH·RĪG19/04A·FK 23/04H·AUD28/04H·TUK03/05A·RIG08/05A·SUP14/05H·MET18/05A·VAL22/05H·FS 26/05A·RĪG30/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.650.590.620.69
vs Stronger (10)0.400.900.500.830.251.00
vs Similar (16)0.690.380.670.330.710.43
vs Weaker (4)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D11D01L00D02L00D01L10W00DA·TUK18/04H·BFC23/04A·SUP28/04H·MET03/05A·AUD07/05H·RIG12/05H·RĪG17/05A·FS 22/05H·VAL27/05H·TUK01/06
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.600.750.620.570.57
vs Stronger (7)0.001.000.001.500.000.33
vs Similar (11)0.730.180.670.170.800.20
vs Weaker (12)1.000.751.330.500.671.00
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L02L12L01L10W11D00D42W02LH·RĪG19/04A·FK 23/04H·AUD28/04H·TUK03/05A·RIG08/05A·SUP14/05H·MET18/05A·VAL22/05H·FS 26/05A·RĪG30/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.170.711.240.311.08
vs Stronger (10)0.101.500.171.670.001.25
vs Similar (16)0.621.001.001.110.140.86
vs Weaker (4)1.251.001.000.501.501.50
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W10W51W10W40W02L03L11D02L01LA·TUK18/04H·BFC23/04A·SUP28/04H·MET03/05A·AUD07/05H·RIG12/05H·RĪG17/05A·FS 22/05H·VAL27/05H·TUK01/06
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.830.811.001.360.64
vs Stronger (7)0.141.290.251.500.001.00
vs Similar (11)0.820.640.330.831.400.40
vs Weaker (12)1.830.751.670.832.000.67
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and FK Liepaja have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
BD wins
0
Draws
5
FL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja · H/A from BD
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/23AFK Liepaja Vs BD1-0
09/10/22HBD Vs FK Liepaja2-3
04/08/22AFK Liepaja Vs BD2-1
14/05/22HBD Vs FK Liepaja0-4
06/04/22AFK Liepaja Vs BD5-1

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/05/23ARīgas FS Vs BD3-1
26/05/23HBD Vs FS Jelgava5-2
22/05/23AValmiera / BSS Vs BD1-0
18/05/23HBD Vs Metta / LU1-1
14/05/23ASuper Nova Vs BD0-4
08/05/23ARiga Vs BD1-0
03/05/23HBD Vs Tukums3-3
28/04/23HBD Vs Auda0-2
23/04/23AFK Liepaja Vs BD1-0
19/04/23HBD Vs Rīgas FS0-5

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/23HFL Vs Tukums0-1
27/05/23HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS1-2
22/05/23AFS Jelgava Vs FL2-1
17/05/23HFL Vs Rīgas FS0-3
12/05/23HFL Vs Riga0-4
07/05/23AAuda Vs FL0-4
03/05/23HFL Vs Metta / LU1-1
28/04/23ASuper Nova Vs FL2-6
23/04/23HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
18/04/23ATukums Vs FL0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL0.88
HomeLLDDW1.12
AwayLLWLL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%24%20%
AVG goals2.782.842.72
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %46%44%48%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.001.200.80
Conceded1.781.641.92
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.56
HomeDLLLL1.35
AwayLWWWL1.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%38%54%
AVG goals2.982.813.17
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %62%54%71%
Over 3.5 %36%31%42%
Scored1.621.381.88
Conceded1.361.421.29
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Corners9.5010.508.50
Cards4.004.503.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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