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BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 4-0
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Vs
57%
25%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFC Daugavpils win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D30W03L21W23L01L01L14L02L00DA·FK 15/06H·FS 21/06A·GRO27/06A·TUK03/07A·MET07/07A·RIG28/07A·AUD04/08A·VAL11/08H·FK 24/08A·FS 01/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.471.621.310.711.59
vs Stronger (9)0.562.670.673.000.502.50
vs Similar (18)1.170.941.670.890.671.00
vs Weaker (3)2.331.004.000.001.501.50
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-606L30W10W21W00D12L10W03L23L16LH·RIG22/06H·BFC27/06A·AUD02/07H·TUK08/07A·VAL21/07H·MET27/07A·FK 03/08A·RĪG11/08H·FS 23/08A·RIG31/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.901.531.930.871.87
vs Stronger (10)0.203.000.003.250.332.83
vs Similar (13)1.541.542.121.620.601.40
vs Weaker (7)2.001.002.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-0
11.0%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
5.0%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
01234
07.8%5.0%2.8%0.8%0.2%
111%12%5.0%1.5%0.3%
211%9.8%4.4%1.3%0.3%
36.4%5.8%2.6%0.8%0.2%
42.9%2.6%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
BFC Daugavpils is 0.36 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
BFC Daugavpils is 0.25 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
BFC Daugavpils is 0.50 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L10W12L00D00D12L01L00DA·FK 15/06H·FS 21/06A·GRO27/06A·TUK03/07A·MET07/07A·RIG28/07A·AUD04/08A·VAL11/08H·FK 24/08A·FS 01/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.770.770.530.53
vs Stronger (9)0.441.330.332.330.500.83
vs Similar (18)0.610.280.670.330.560.22
vs Weaker (3)1.330.673.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L10W10W10W00D02L10W00D11D12LH·RIG22/06H·BFC27/06A·AUD02/07H·TUK08/07A·VAL21/07H·MET27/07A·FK 03/08A·RĪG11/08H·FS 23/08A·RIG31/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.870.601.130.530.60
vs Stronger (10)0.201.100.001.750.330.67
vs Similar (13)0.690.850.751.000.600.60
vs Weaker (7)0.860.571.000.670.750.50
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W02L11D11D01L01L02L01L00DA·FK 15/06H·FS 21/06A·GRO27/06A·TUK03/07A·MET07/07A·RIG28/07A·AUD04/08A·VAL11/08H·FK 24/08A·FS 01/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.850.540.181.06
vs Stronger (9)0.111.330.330.670.001.67
vs Similar (18)0.560.671.000.560.110.78
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L20W00D11D00D10W00D03L12L04LH·RIG22/06H·BFC27/06A·AUD02/07H·TUK08/07A·VAL21/07H·MET27/07A·FK 03/08A·RĪG11/08H·FS 23/08A·RIG31/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.030.930.800.331.27
vs Stronger (10)0.001.900.001.500.002.17
vs Similar (13)0.850.691.380.620.000.80
vs Weaker (7)1.140.431.000.331.250.50
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Grobiņa have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Grobiņa have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Grobiņa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Grobiņa have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
BD wins
0
Draws
1
GRO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa · H/A from BD
DateH/AGameScore
27/06/24AGrobiņa Vs BD3-0
07/05/24AGrobiņa Vs BD1-3
16/03/24HBD Vs Grobiņa2-0

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/24AFS Jelgava Vs BD0-0
24/08/24HBD Vs FK Liepaja0-2
11/08/24AValmiera / BSS Vs BD4-1
04/08/24AAuda Vs BD1-0
28/07/24ARiga Vs BD1-0
07/07/24AMetta / LU Vs BD3-2
03/07/24ATukums Vs BD1-2
27/06/24AGrobiņa Vs BD3-0
21/06/24HBD Vs FS Jelgava3-0
15/06/24AFK Liepaja Vs BD1-1

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/24ARiga Vs GRO6-1
23/08/24HGRO Vs FS Jelgava2-3
11/08/24ARīgas FS Vs GRO3-0
03/08/24AFK Liepaja Vs GRO0-1
27/07/24HGRO Vs Metta / LU1-2
21/07/24AValmiera / BSS Vs GRO0-0
08/07/24HGRO Vs Tukums2-1
02/07/24AAuda Vs GRO0-1
27/06/24HGRO Vs BFC Daugavpils3-0
22/06/24HGRO Vs Riga0-6

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.22
HomeLLLWL1.61
AwayLLLLD0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%22%
AVG goals2.482.912.11
Over 1.5 %66%83%52%
Over 2.5 %44%48%41%
Over 3.5 %26%30%22%
Scored1.081.610.63
Conceded1.401.301.48
BTTS38%43%33%
Clean Sheet30%30%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.66
HomeLWWLL1.92
AwayWDWLL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%60%40%
AVG goals3.303.523.08
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %62%68%56%
Over 3.5 %40%52%28%
Scored1.822.201.44
Conceded1.481.321.64
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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