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BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS Result & Analysis

Date: 06/10/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 0-3
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Vs
17%
23%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS win✓ Hit
60.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L01L01L14L02L00D40W14L00D11DA·MET07/07A·RIG28/07A·AUD04/08A·VAL11/08H·FK 24/08A·FS 01/09H·GRO14/09A·RĪG17/09A·TUK21/09H·MET27/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.471.711.210.751.69
vs Stronger (9)0.562.780.673.000.502.67
vs Similar (17)1.350.881.890.780.751.00
vs Weaker (4)2.001.002.500.501.501.50
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-770W21W00D12L21W41W20W14L20W22DH·UE 14/08H·APO22/08A·RIG25/08A·APO29/08A·VAL13/09H·BFC17/09H·FK 20/09A·FCS26/09A·FS 30/09H·GAL03/10
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.900.973.730.802.071.13
vs Stronger (1)2.002.002.002.00--
vs Similar (12)1.831.673.201.400.861.86
vs Weaker (17)3.710.414.220.333.120.50
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.6%
Under 2.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
0-2
10.2%
1-2
10.0%
0-1
9.1%
0-3 ✓
6.9%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
4.9%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Rīgas FS goals →
01234
06.0%9.1%10%6.9%3.5%
13.9%11%10.0%6.7%3.4%
22.4%4.8%4.9%3.3%1.6%
30.8%1.6%1.6%1.1%0.5%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
BFC Daugavpils is 1.33 points worse than Rīgas FS in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
BFC Daugavpils is 1.67 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 2.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
BFC Daugavpils is 0.97 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D00D12L01L00D20W03L00D00DA·MET07/07A·RIG28/07A·AUD04/08A·VAL11/08H·FK 24/08A·FS 01/09H·GRO14/09A·RĪG17/09A·TUK21/09H·MET27/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.790.710.500.69
vs Stronger (9)0.331.560.332.330.331.17
vs Similar (17)0.710.290.780.330.620.25
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.500.000.501.00
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W20W00D10W20W30W10W12L00D12LH·UE 14/08H·APO22/08A·RIG25/08A·APO29/08A·VAL13/09H·BFC17/09H·FK 20/09A·FCS26/09A·FS 30/09H·GAL03/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.471.800.401.130.53
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (12)1.420.582.200.400.860.71
vs Weaker (17)1.530.291.670.221.380.38
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L01L02L01L00D20W11D00D11DA·MET07/07A·RIG28/07A·AUD04/08A·VAL11/08H·FK 24/08A·FS 01/09H·GRO14/09A·RĪG17/09A·TUK21/09H·MET27/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.930.500.251.00
vs Stronger (9)0.221.220.330.670.171.50
vs Similar (17)0.650.591.110.440.120.75
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D02L01L11D10W02L20W10WH·UE 14/08H·APO22/08A·RIG25/08A·APO29/08A·VAL13/09H·BFC17/09H·FK 20/09A·FCS26/09A·FS 30/09H·GAL03/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.501.930.400.930.60
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (12)0.421.081.001.000.001.14
vs Weaker (17)2.180.122.560.111.750.12
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.0%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Rīgas FS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils's squad is €8m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€3m vs €11m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils's attack is €5m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€1m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Rīgas FS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils's defence is €2m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
BD wins
1
Draws
7
RF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils vs Rīgas FS · H/A from BD
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/24ARīgas FS Vs BD4-1
20/05/24ARīgas FS Vs BD5-0
07/04/24HBD Vs Rīgas FS1-1
29/10/23ARīgas FS Vs BD3-1
08/08/23HBD Vs Rīgas FS0-1
30/05/23ARīgas FS Vs BD3-1
19/04/23HBD Vs Rīgas FS0-5
27/09/22HBD Vs Rīgas FS1-3

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/24HBD Vs Metta / LU1-1
21/09/24ATukums Vs BD0-0
17/09/24ARīgas FS Vs BD4-1
14/09/24HBD Vs Grobiņa4-0
01/09/24AFS Jelgava Vs BD0-0
24/08/24HBD Vs FK Liepaja0-2
11/08/24AValmiera / BSS Vs BD4-1
04/08/24AAuda Vs BD1-0
28/07/24ARiga Vs BD1-0
07/07/24AMetta / LU Vs BD3-2

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/10/24HRF Vs Galatasaray2-2
30/09/24AFS Jelgava Vs RF0-2
26/09/24AFCSB Vs RF4-1
20/09/24HRF Vs FK Liepaja2-0
17/09/24HRF Vs BFC Daugavpils4-1
13/09/24AValmiera / BSS Vs RF1-2
29/08/24AApoel Nicosia Vs RF2-1
25/08/24ARiga Vs RF0-0
22/08/24HRF Vs Apoel Nicosia2-1
14/08/24HRF Vs UE Santa Coloma7-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDD1.26
HomeLWLWD1.65
AwayLLDLD0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%22%
AVG goals2.402.742.11
Over 1.5 %66%83%52%
Over 2.5 %42%43%41%
Over 3.5 %26%30%22%
Scored1.061.570.63
Conceded1.341.171.48
BTTS36%39%33%
Clean Sheet34%35%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD2.38
HomeWWWWD2.54
AwayDLWLW2.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%81%71%
AVG goals3.603.923.25
Over 1.5 %86%88%83%
Over 2.5 %74%81%67%
Over 3.5 %52%62%42%
Scored2.763.272.21
Conceded0.840.651.04
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet46%50%42%
Corners10.009.0010.50
Cards4.673.336.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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