BFC Daugavpils are tipped to lift the trophy in a 2.5-goal affair, with the model picking a home win as the most likely outcome. The average goal count of 2.5 points to a modestly open game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% chance. Home form shows Daugavpils scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 1.5 against similar opposition, while Super Nova, on the road, averages a goal a game and 1.29 conceded. The model’s picks include an 76.3% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 71.9% chance of Over 1.5 goals. The probabilities for the match result are 46% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 25% for an away win. Both teams have recently slipped, with Daugavpils coming off a 0-1 loss to Grobiņa and Super Nova ending a 1-1 draw with Auda. The numbers suggest a tight contest where the home side’s defensive frailties could be the deciding factor.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction was spot on as BFC Daugavpils secured a 3-0 home win, extending their recent run after a defeat. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with a 46% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model also selected Under 3.5, which hit with a 76.3% probability, and Over 1.5, which also hit at 71.9%. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.7%, but the match finished 3-0, a result that matched the model’s overall forecast. The final outcome confirmed the model’s accuracy across all its chosen selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFC Daugavpils win✓ Hit
46.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFC Daugavpils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.00
0.92
2.00
0.71
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
3.11
0.75
3.00
0.20
3.20
vs Similar (18)
0.61
1.44
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.33
0.87
2.60
0.73
2.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
3.12
0.88
3.50
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.43
0.86
1.57
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.6%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
7.3%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.0%
9.1%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.61 points better than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
BFC Daugavpils is 0.42 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
BFC Daugavpils is 1.22 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 2.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.54
0.77
0.29
0.65
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.22
0.75
1.25
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.39
0.25
0.38
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.40
0.93
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
1.25
0.38
1.25
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.43
0.57
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.30
0.38
1.23
0.41
1.35
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.89
0.00
1.75
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.28
1.06
0.50
1.12
0.10
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.37
0.47
1.67
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
1.88
0.50
2.25
0.38
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.79
0.43
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Auda
Valmiera / BSS
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
Metta / LU
Tukums
Skanste