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BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 4-1
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Vs
59%
23%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFC Daugavpils win✓ Hit
59.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W31W10W11D02L01L10W00D10W31WH·GRO16/03H·TUK30/03A·MET03/04H·RĪG07/04A·RIG12/04A·AUD17/04A·VAL22/04H·FK 28/04H·FS 03/05A·GRO07/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.971.360.860.621.06
vs Stronger (9)0.441.330.251.000.601.60
vs Similar (18)1.110.831.560.670.671.00
vs Weaker (3)1.670.674.002.000.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W13L20W00D05L21W02L12L00D21WA·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04H·RIG16/04A·AUD21/04H·VAL27/04H·FK 02/05H·FS 07/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.031.501.380.932.79
vs Stronger (17)1.002.711.672.220.253.25
vs Similar (13)1.541.151.290.291.832.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
9.8%
1-0
8.9%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
6.5%
0-0
5.9%
1-2
5.1%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Tukums goals →
01234
05.9%4.0%2.5%0.9%0.2%
18.9%11%5.1%1.7%0.4%
29.8%10.0%5.0%1.7%0.4%
36.5%6.6%3.4%1.1%0.3%
43.3%3.3%1.7%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.50
Riga
2.42
Valmiera / BSS
1.78
Auda
1.67
BFC Daugavpils
1.17
FK Liepaja
1.08
Metta / LU
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Grobiņa
0.81
FS Jelgava
0.69
BFC Daugavpils is 0.19 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.86
Riga
2.75
Valmiera / BSS
2.08
Auda
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
1.19
Tukums
1.06
FK Liepaja
1.03
Grobiņa
0.94
Metta / LU
0.94
FS Jelgava
0.78
BFC Daugavpils is 0.14 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Rīgas FS
0.69
Auda
0.94
Valmiera / BSS
1.08
FK Liepaja
1.56
BFC Daugavpils
1.67
Metta / LU
2.11
Grobiņa
2.17
Tukums
2.25
FS Jelgava
2.28
BFC Daugavpils is 0.58 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D01L01L01L10W00D10W30WH·GRO16/03H·TUK30/03A·MET03/04H·RĪG07/04A·RIG12/04A·AUD17/04A·VAL22/04H·FK 28/04H·FS 03/05A·GRO07/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.500.430.560.44
vs Stronger (9)0.330.440.000.250.600.60
vs Similar (18)0.670.390.670.330.670.44
vs Weaker (3)0.330.671.002.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L10W00D03L00D01L01L00D10WA·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04H·RIG16/04A·AUD21/04H·VAL27/04H·FK 02/05H·FS 07/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.030.440.620.431.50
vs Stronger (17)0.241.410.441.000.001.88
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.430.141.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W10W10W01L00D00D00D00D01LH·GRO16/03H·TUK30/03A·MET03/04H·RĪG07/04A·RIG12/04A·AUD17/04A·VAL22/04H·FK 28/04H·FS 03/05A·GRO07/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.530.860.430.060.62
vs Stronger (9)0.110.890.250.750.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.440.440.890.330.000.56
vs Weaker (3)1.330.003.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D12L10W00D02L21W01L11D00D11DA·FS 17/03A·BFC30/03H·GRO04/04H·MET08/04A·RĪG12/04H·RIG16/04A·AUD21/04H·VAL27/04H·FK 02/05H·FS 07/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.001.060.750.501.29
vs Stronger (17)0.761.291.221.220.251.38
vs Similar (13)0.850.620.860.140.831.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
BD wins
2
Draws
2
TUK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums · H/A from BD
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24HBD Vs Tukums3-1
01/09/23ATukums Vs BD3-0
26/06/23HBD Vs Tukums3-1
03/05/23HBD Vs Tukums3-3
12/03/23ATukums Vs BD1-0
10/09/22HBD Vs Tukums0-0
26/06/22ATukums Vs BD0-1
30/04/22ATukums Vs BD0-1

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/24AGrobiņa Vs BD1-3
03/05/24HBD Vs FS Jelgava1-0
28/04/24HBD Vs FK Liepaja0-0
22/04/24AValmiera / BSS Vs BD0-1
17/04/24AAuda Vs BD1-0
12/04/24ARiga Vs BD2-0
07/04/24HBD Vs Rīgas FS1-1
03/04/24AMetta / LU Vs BD0-1
30/03/24HBD Vs Tukums3-1
16/03/24HBD Vs Grobiņa2-0

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/24HTUK Vs FS Jelgava2-1
02/05/24HTUK Vs FK Liepaja0-0
27/04/24HTUK Vs Valmiera / BSS1-2
21/04/24AAuda Vs TUK2-0
16/04/24HTUK Vs Riga2-1
12/04/24ARīgas FS Vs TUK5-0
08/04/24HTUK Vs Metta / LU0-0
04/04/24HTUK Vs Grobiņa2-0
30/03/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK3-1
17/03/24AFS Jelgava Vs TUK2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.22
HomeWWDDW1.44
AwayWLLWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.362.642.08
Over 1.5 %64%80%48%
Over 2.5 %38%36%40%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.121.400.84
Conceded1.241.241.24
BTTS42%52%32%
Clean Sheet28%24%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW1.04
HomeDWLDW1.31
AwayWWLLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%35%21%
AVG goals3.382.963.83
Over 1.5 %80%77%83%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %42%27%58%
Scored1.241.271.21
Conceded2.141.692.62
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet24%35%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3690
81%
2.5
10325+78
3.6
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.90.7
-
2RigaRiga3687
75%
2.4
9923+76
3.4
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.80.6
-
3Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3664
53%
1.8
7539+36
3.2
78%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
4AudaAuda3660
50%
1.7
6334+29
2.7
75%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.80.9
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3642
31%
1.2
4360-17
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.7
-
6FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3639
28%
1.1
3756-19
2.6
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3636
28%
1.0
3476-42
3.1
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
8TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
3881-43
3.3
81%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.2
-
9GrobiņaGrobiņa3629
22%
0.8
3478-44
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.2
-
10FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3625
17%
0.7
2882-54
3.1
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.82.3
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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