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BFC Daugavpils vs Valmiera / BSS Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Vs
14%
21%
65%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS win✗ Miss
65.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L04L11D11D32W01L01L12L30W23LH·FK 09/10A·RIG16/10H·SPA22/10H·SUP29/10A·MET06/11H·AUD12/11A·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.971.081.690.762.18
vs Stronger (8)0.383.000.672.670.203.20
vs Similar (18)0.721.441.001.330.441.56
vs Weaker (4)2.752.253.002.002.672.33
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-641W21W11D11D61W20W00D01L40W43WA·MET09/10H·AUD15/10A·TUK23/10H·RĪG30/10A·SUP06/11A·FK 12/11H·RĪG11/03H·FK 18/03A·AUD02/04H·TUK06/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.730.902.690.942.790.86
vs Stronger (2)2.500.503.001.002.000.00
vs Similar (14)1.640.931.250.752.171.17
vs Weaker (14)3.860.934.291.143.430.71
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.4%
1-2
9.8%
1-1 ✓
9.7%
0-1
8.5%
0-3
7.7%
1-3
7.3%
0-0
5.1%
2-2
4.6%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Valmiera / BSS goals →
01234
05.1%8.5%10%7.7%4.3%
13.1%9.7%9.8%7.3%4.0%
21.9%4.2%4.6%3.4%1.9%
30.6%1.3%1.5%1.1%0.6%
40.1%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Valmiera / BSS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.47
Riga
2.44
Auda
1.61
Valmiera / BSS
1.47
FK Liepaja
1.42
FS Jelgava
1.11
Metta / LU
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
1.00
Tukums
0.97
Super Nova
0.39
Skanste
0.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.47 points worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.67
Riga
2.47
FK Liepaja
1.44
Valmiera / BSS
1.31
Tukums
1.31
Metta / LU
1.29
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.11
Skanste
1.00
Super Nova
0.69
BFC Daugavpils is 0.19 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rīgas FS
0.50
Riga
0.58
Auda
1.08
Valmiera / BSS
1.11
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
FK Liepaja
1.50
FS Jelgava
1.58
Metta / LU
1.71
Tukums
2.31
Super Nova
2.67
Skanste
4.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.33 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L02L10W00D10W00D00D11D10W12LH·FK 09/10A·RIG16/10H·SPA22/10H·SUP29/10A·MET06/11H·AUD12/11A·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.700.540.620.350.76
vs Stronger (8)0.251.120.671.000.001.20
vs Similar (18)0.390.390.330.330.440.44
vs Weaker (4)1.001.252.002.000.671.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D01L10W20W00D00D01L20W12LA·MET09/10H·AUD15/10A·TUK23/10H·RĪG30/10A·SUP06/11A·FK 12/11H·RĪG11/03H·FK 18/03A·AUD02/04H·TUK06/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.470.940.381.140.57
vs Stronger (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.570.570.380.380.830.83
vs Weaker (14)1.500.431.570.431.430.43
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L01L11D22D01L01L01L20W11DH·FK 09/10A·RIG16/10H·SPA22/10H·SUP29/10A·MET06/11H·AUD12/11A·TUK12/03A·FS 17/03H·SUP01/04A·MET07/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.270.541.080.411.41
vs Stronger (8)0.121.880.001.670.202.00
vs Similar (18)0.331.060.671.000.001.11
vs Weaker (4)1.751.001.000.002.001.33
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W10W10W01L41W20W00D00D20W31WA·MET09/10H·AUD15/10A·TUK23/10H·RĪG30/10A·SUP06/11A·FK 12/11H·RĪG11/03H·FK 18/03A·AUD02/04H·TUK06/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.431.750.561.640.29
vs Stronger (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (14)1.070.360.880.381.330.33
vs Weaker (14)2.360.502.710.712.000.29
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
BD wins
2
Draws
2
V/B wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils vs Valmiera / BSS · H/A from BD
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/22HBD Vs Valmiera / BSS1-1
16/07/22AValmiera / BSS Vs BD5-1
09/05/22AValmiera / BSS Vs BD1-0
02/04/22HBD Vs Valmiera / BSS0-0

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/23AMetta / LU Vs BD3-2
01/04/23HBD Vs Super Nova3-0
17/03/23AFS Jelgava Vs BD2-1
12/03/23ATukums Vs BD1-0
12/11/22HBD Vs Auda0-1
06/11/22AMetta / LU Vs BD2-3
29/10/22HBD Vs Super Nova1-1
22/10/22HBD Vs Spartaks Jurmala1-1
16/10/22ARiga Vs BD4-0
09/10/22HBD Vs FK Liepaja2-3

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/23HV/B Vs Tukums4-3
02/04/23AAuda Vs V/B0-4
18/03/23HV/B Vs FK Liepaja0-1
11/03/23HV/B Vs Rīgas FS0-0
12/11/22AFK Liepaja Vs V/B0-2
06/11/22ASuper Nova Vs V/B1-6
30/10/22HV/B Vs Rīgas FS1-1
23/10/22ATukums Vs V/B1-1
15/10/22HV/B Vs Auda2-1
09/10/22AMetta / LU Vs V/B1-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL0.93
HomeLDDLW1.26
AwayLWLLL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%32%19%
AVG goals2.732.532.90
Over 1.5 %72%74%71%
Over 2.5 %50%47%52%
Over 3.5 %35%32%38%
Scored0.901.110.71
Conceded1.821.422.19
BTTS42%47%38%
Clean Sheet25%37%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW2.19
HomeWDDLW2.18
AwayWDWWW2.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%68%65%
AVG goals3.453.413.50
Over 1.5 %86%77%95%
Over 2.5 %64%64%65%
Over 3.5 %43%36%50%
Scored2.642.642.65
Conceded0.810.770.85
BTTS57%50%65%
Clean Sheet38%41%35%
Corners12.508.0017.00
Cards4.002.006.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS3689
75%
2.5
9618+78
3.2
69%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.70.5
-
2RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8921+68
3.1
81%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.50.6
-
3AudaAuda3658
44%
1.6
4439+5
2.3
72%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.1
-
4Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3653
39%
1.5
4740+7
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
5FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3651
39%
1.4
5254-2
2.9
89%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.5
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3640
28%
1.1
4257-15
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
7Metta / LUMetta / LU3839
26%
1.0
4965-16
3.0
76%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3636
25%
1.0
4052-12
2.6
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.4
-
9TukumsTukums3635
25%
1.0
4783-36
3.6
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Super NovaSuper Nova3614
8%
0.4
2596-71
3.4
86%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.7
-
11SkansteSkanste20
0%
0.0
28-6
5.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.0
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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