The contest between Bilje and Krka is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but no result stands out as a clear favourite. Bilje’s odds of winning sit at 38%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 32%. The predicted average goal tally is 2.5, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 27% of the time. The single most probable final score is 1-1, a 14% chance. Bilje, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 0.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded, while Krka, on the road, averages 1.09 scored and 1.91 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (95.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Under 4.5 (89.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2%) and Home +2 handicap (86.1%). Bilje’s recent form shows a 1-4 loss to Rudar after two straight defeats, while Krka fell 2-3 to Primorje following three consecutive losses.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bilje win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Krka win
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bilje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.00
0.93
1.00
2.60
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.67
0.75
1.25
1.20
3.80
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.50
0.89
0.89
0.78
2.11
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
0.93
1.80
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.86
0.50
2.50
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.71
0.90
1.50
1.09
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.5%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.7%
Bilje goals ↓
Krka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.4%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.5%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.1%
8.4%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.1%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bilje goals (down), columns = Krka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Bilje is 0.17 points better than Krka in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Bilje is 0.17 goals worse than Krka in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Bilje is 0.13 goals better than Krka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bilje or Draw
67.9%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
32%
covers Bilje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bilje or Krka
70.6%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
32%
covers Bilje + Krka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Krka
61.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
29%
32%
covers Draw + Krka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bilje over/under 0.5
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bilje, so a minus line means Bilje give that many goals of a start and Krka receive them. At -1, Bilje must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bilje win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bilje)
Bilje -2
6.4%
Draw -2
11.6%
Krka +2
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bilje)
Bilje -1
18.0%
Draw -1
20.4%
Krka +1
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bilje)
Bilje +1
67.9%
Draw +1
18.2%
Krka -1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bilje)
Bilje +2
86.1%
Draw +2
9.4%
Krka -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bilje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.33
0.40
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.57
0.60
0.70
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bilje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.67
0.53
0.40
1.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.44
0.50
0.50
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.94
0.56
0.56
0.22
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.33
1.00
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.00
1.75
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.33
1.14
0.30
0.80
0.36
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Bilje and Krka have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Bilje and Krka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Bilje and Krka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Bilje and Krka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Brežice
Dravinja