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Bilje vs Rudar Result & Analysis

Date: 25/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 2-2
Bilje
Bilje
Vs
42%
24%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Bilje’s recent form shows a team that has struggled to find consistency, yet their home attack has averaged 1.62 goals per game while conceding 1.75 against similar opposition. Rudar, on the road, has scored 1.4 and allowed 2.0 goals per match against comparable sides. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and the most likely total being three, a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.6% probability. The model favours a home win, assigning Bilje a 42% chance, a draw 24% and an away win 34%. Suggested picks include an Over 1.5 goal selection at 86.3%. Bilje’s recent five matches (LLWWL) ended in a 1-4 loss to Rudar, while Rudar’s last five (WLWLL) finished 4-1 against Bilje, hinting at a competitive, open game.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Bilje, failed to deliver, as the match ended in a 2-2 draw. The model had tipped a home win with a 42% probability, but that call proved wrong. The only suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit, with an 86.3% chance. Bilje’s recent form, after two straight defeats, was a shaky LLWWL, while Rudar, coming off a win, had a WLWLL run. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely total of 3 goals, though the actual total was lower. Despite the upset, the model’s single hit pick confirmed the high probability of a goal-rich encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilje win✗ Miss
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar win✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BiljeBilje

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W12L32W13L11D23L12L21W31W11DA·BRI12/05H·NAF20/05H·ILI29/07A·PRI13/08H·TAB20/08A·GOR30/08A·BEL03/09H·TOL09/09A·BRI17/09H·TRI21/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.671.291.791.191.56
vs Stronger (14)1.291.930.831.831.622.00
vs Similar (16)1.191.441.621.750.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D13L00D24L01L20W11D01L03L20WA·BIS13/05H·ILI20/05H·BIS30/07A·FUŽ13/08H·PRI18/08A·ILI30/08A·TAB02/09H·BEL09/09A·TOL16/09H·BRI21/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.630.931.071.532.20
vs Stronger (7)1.572.141.001.001.802.60
vs Similar (23)1.131.480.921.081.402.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.3%
Under 1.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.1%
Under 2.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.7%
No
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.7%
2-2 ✓
6.9%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
5.1%
1-0
5.0%
0-1
4.4%
Bilje goals ↓
Rudar goals →
01234
04.3%4.4%4.3%2.3%0.9%
15.0%11%7.7%4.2%1.7%
25.3%8.6%6.9%3.7%1.5%
33.2%5.1%4.1%2.2%0.9%
41.4%2.3%1.9%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bilje goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Primorje
2.00
Nafta
1.93
Beltinci
1.87
Gorica
1.77
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Triglav
1.60
Bistrica
1.47
Rudar
1.23
Dekani
1.20
Bilje
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Dravinja
1.13
Krka
1.10
Tabor Sežana
1.00
Ilirija
1.00
Fužinar
0.80
Bilje is 0.10 points worse than Rudar in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nafta
1.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.73
Gorica
1.70
Beltinci
1.63
Primorje
1.63
Bistrica
1.50
Bilje
1.47
Triglav
1.47
Krka
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.27
Dekani
1.13
Tolmin
1.13
Fužinar
1.10
Rudar
1.10
Ilirija
1.03
Dravinja
0.97
Bilje is 0.37 goals better than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.10).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.80
Primorje
0.83
Gorica
0.93
Nafta
1.03
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Dekani
1.23
Dravinja
1.40
Ilirija
1.47
Tolmin
1.50
Bistrica
1.53
Krka
1.63
Rudar
1.63
Bilje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.97
Fužinar
2.03
Bilje is 0.07 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W32W12L10W21W02L11D10W01LA·BRI12/05H·NAF20/05H·ILI29/07A·PRI13/08H·TAB20/08A·GOR30/08A·BEL03/09H·TOL09/09A·BRI17/09H·TRI21/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.711.000.380.88
vs Stronger (14)0.501.000.331.000.621.00
vs Similar (16)0.560.881.001.000.120.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D13L01L00D01L01L01L10WA·BIS13/05H·ILI20/05H·BIS30/07A·FUŽ13/08H·PRI18/08A·ILI30/08A·TAB02/09H·BEL09/09A·TOL16/09H·BRI21/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.400.530.601.13
vs Stronger (7)1.001.140.500.501.201.40
vs Similar (23)0.350.740.380.540.301.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W02L00D01L01L02L10W10W21W10WA·BRI12/05H·NAF20/05H·ILI29/07A·PRI13/08H·TAB20/08A·GOR30/08A·BEL03/09H·TOL09/09A·BRI17/09H·TRI21/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.570.790.810.69
vs Stronger (14)0.790.930.500.831.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.620.560.620.750.620.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W02L00D11D00D20W10W00D02L10WA·BIS13/05H·ILI20/05H·BIS30/07A·FUŽ13/08H·PRI18/08A·ILI30/08A·TAB02/09H·BEL09/09A·TOL16/09H·BRI21/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.530.530.931.07
vs Stronger (7)0.571.000.500.500.601.20
vs Similar (23)0.780.740.540.541.101.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
BIL wins
1
Draws
0
RUD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bilje vs Rudar · H/A from BIL
DateH/AGameScore
25/03/23ARudar Vs BIL0-0
09/09/22HBIL Vs Rudar4-3

BiljeBilje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/23HBIL Vs Triglav1-1
17/09/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs BIL1-3
09/09/23HBIL Vs Tolmin2-1
03/09/23ABeltinci Vs BIL2-1
30/08/23AGorica Vs BIL3-2
20/08/23HBIL Vs Tabor Sežana1-1
13/08/23APrimorje Vs BIL3-1
29/07/23HBIL Vs Ilirija3-2
20/05/23HBIL Vs Nafta1-2
12/05/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs BIL1-3

RudarRudar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/23HRUD Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-0
16/09/23ATolmin Vs RUD3-0
09/09/23HRUD Vs Beltinci0-1
02/09/23ATabor Sežana Vs RUD1-1
30/08/23AIlirija Vs RUD0-2
18/08/23HRUD Vs Primorje0-1
13/08/23AFužinar Vs RUD4-2
30/07/23HRUD Vs Bistrica0-0
20/05/23HRUD Vs Ilirija1-3
13/05/23ABistrica Vs RUD2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bilje
Bilje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.26
HomeLWDWD1.21
AwayWLLLW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%32%37%
AVG goals3.183.213.16
Over 1.5 %82%89%74%
Over 2.5 %66%58%74%
Over 3.5 %42%32%53%
Scored1.421.421.42
Conceded1.761.791.74
BTTS71%74%68%
Clean Sheet18%11%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.05
HomeLDLLW1.26
AwayDLWDL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%32%16%
AVG goals2.872.003.74
Over 1.5 %79%63%95%
Over 2.5 %50%32%68%
Over 3.5 %34%16%53%
Scored1.260.891.63
Conceded1.611.112.11
BTTS55%37%74%
Clean Sheet21%32%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PrimorjePrimorje3060
57%
2.0
4925+24
2.5
70%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.60.8
-
2NaftaNafta3058
60%
1.9
5531+24
2.9
77%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.81.0
-
3BeltinciBeltinci3056
57%
1.9
4924+25
2.4
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
4GoricaGorica3053
50%
1.8
5128+23
2.6
67%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
5Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3052
50%
1.7
5235+17
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.2
-
6TriglavTriglav3048
47%
1.6
4435+9
2.6
80%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7BistricaBistrica3044
43%
1.5
4546-1
3.0
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.5
-
8RudarRudar3037
33%
1.2
3349-16
2.7
67%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.11.6
-
9DekaniDekani3036
30%
1.2
3437-3
2.4
60%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
10BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
4451-7
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.51.7
-
11TolminTolmin3034
27%
1.1
3445-11
2.6
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
12DravinjaDravinja3034
30%
1.1
2942-13
2.4
63%
50%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.4
-
13KrkaKrka3033
30%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
80%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.6
-
14IlirijaIlirija3030
23%
1.0
3144-13
2.5
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.5
-
15Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3030
23%
1.0
3859-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.32.0
-
16FužinarFužinar3024
20%
0.8
3361-28
3.1
80%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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